Chapter 626: Closed and Open

"Dre Dawa City also wants to engage in border trade. Do you think this is feasible?"

"In fact, the idea of ​​Dire Dawa City may not be impossible to realize, but we must take into account realistic factors. For example, the Red Sea coast is a place where merchants gather, so I think their plan is unreliable. Our own ships sometimes sell goods along the Red Sea coast. Moreover, the Red Sea now relies on the Suez Canal to connect the two major markets of Europe and Asia, so there is no shortage of goods at all."

"That's not necessarily true. Sea transportation is convenient, but it may not be able to meet all needs. For example, we must first sell tropical cash crops from the Northern Province to Europe because other regions do not have the consumption capacity, or we are not satisfied with their quotations. Therefore, market demand is not a cold number, but a flexible one. Dire Dawa City is on the border, so there may be such a market, but it is not worth our efforts. Instead, we should give full play to the market and the capabilities of the people on the border to develop the market."

There are only two markets that East Africa values ​​the most: Europe and the Far East. The European market mainly supplies raw materials. After all, East African industrial products cannot compete with Germany and Austria. The Far East is the main sales area for East African industrial products.

Although the Middle East is closest to East Africa, a large part of it is managed by Zanzibar merchants. The sales channels are in the hands of Zanzibar merchants. They purchase goods from East Africa, and whether they can make a profit in the end depends on their own means.

Moreover, the countries in the Middle East today are not as rich as in the past. The Ottoman Empire is big and unbreakable, so the people in charge of the region are still there, unlike the Arab countries in the past when they were all scattered.

A large part of the Ottoman Empire's industrial products came from Europe, and it was not easy for East African industrial products to squeeze in. The Arabs were also relatively shrewd. Although it is in decline now, in the long Middle Ages, the Arab region was a prosperous area of ​​world trade, especially relying on the ancient Silk Road, monopolizing the East-West trade. Its monopoly was only broken by Europeans after the Age of Navigation.

The main route taken by East Africa is by the Omanis. The Omanis and the Zanzibar people are of the same origin, and Oman is an independent Arab country. In the past, it was a traditional maritime power along the Indian Ocean coast. The business of maritime countries is not bad, especially a country like Oman that is highly dependent on overseas trade.

The sales of industrial products are mainly controlled by the East African government in the Far East. Although the quality of East African industrial products is poor, the price is low. The poor quality also depends on how it is classified. Compared with Europe, it is definitely worse, but it still has some advantages for countries outside Europe and the United States, especially after the economic crisis in 1873, East Africa introduced a lot of European equipment and technology.

The largest export from East Africa is definitely raw materials, mainly food, tropical cash crops and minerals.

The destination country for raw material exports is definitely the more developed the industry, the greater the demand, and obviously such regions are the Central and Eastern European countries, mainly the German region.

Only with a certain level of industry can raw materials be consumed in large quantities. However, it is impossible for Europe to fully possess the raw materials needed for many industrial developments, especially Germany, Austria and Russia, the three countries located in inland Europe.

However, there is nothing wrong with being a supplier of raw materials, especially for East Africa at present. It involves less work, makes money, and consolidates relations with relevant countries.

After all, raw material production is different from industry. It does not require overly complex technology and is relatively easy to manage. Even feudal countries can do well in this regard. The flexibility of rural areas is much higher than that of cities because agriculture itself is self-sufficient. If it is industry, it is extremely dependent on the market.

If a worker loses his job, the risk he faces is much higher. As for farmers, of course they are also at risk of unemployment, but usually it is because of famine, crop failure, or the annexation of their land, and they become tenant farmers with hired labor. In this era, self-employed farmers live very well, especially those in Europe.

East Africa will not have this problem for the time being, because East Africa has a collective agricultural model with centralized agricultural production, but it is different from traditional manors, large capitalist farms, or collective farms, and has characteristics of all aspects.

In other words, the left is not left enough, and the right is not right enough, forming a mixed agricultural economic system. However, Ernst cannot change it now. In the West, people pay great attention to choosing sides and have a black-and-white philosophical thinking. But the problem is that no matter in the capitalist countries or democratic countries in the past, planning and markets can never be completely eliminated. You have me and I have you, it's nothing more than a matter of share.

As a major supplier of raw materials, East Africa has a relatively stable agricultural model, with steady growth in agricultural output each year. There are no dramatic changes, and more things happen naturally.

Correspondingly, East Africa's agricultural output is generally in surplus. If it were a normal country, East Africa should now cut production on a large scale to balance its revenue and expenditure. However, East Africa is not a normal country, and the international market does not have that much demand. Therefore, East Africa can only use its own enthusiasm and use the domestic market to absorb the excess agricultural production capacity.

This includes various large-scale projects, national infrastructure construction, and capacity contraction. The capacity contraction is not a real contraction, but a further optimization and rational allocation of agricultural resources.

There is a lot of cultivated land in East Africa, but every year a lot of it is withdrawn and restored, and a lot of it is returned to forest or grassland, especially in the eastern region.

This is the case in the Northern Province, where the main policy is to return farmland to grassland, with a large number of pastures cancelled. At the same time, the planting of cash crops is actively promoted in order to seek higher economic value.

“The problem of Dire Dawa is not a simple economic problem, but a national problem. Currently, there are nearly ten open port cities in East Africa, some of which are not even completed. Dire Dawa is very different from these coastal areas.

It represents the border trade issue in East Africa. Border trade has always existed, but we have not opened it up openly. The main purpose of border trade in Turkana Province in the north is to provide blood transfusion to the Abyssinian Empire to prevent them from being at a disadvantage in the competition with Italy. The same is true for our arms trade with the Orangemen in the south. ”

"Dre Dawa is also a major military town, so it is even more worthy of our discussion here. The first issue to be considered should be military issues. Of course, from the perspective of immigration, the local economy must be developed. Otherwise, relying solely on government financial support can only solve urgent problems. The city of Gezira in the Nile Province has done a good job here.

Of course, the situation in Gezira City is also very special. In the entire Nile Province, Gezira City has the most favorable conditions, is suitable for development, and is located on the border. The conditions in Dire Dawa City are much worse than those in Gezira City. ”

"In the final analysis, it is a question of whether Dire Dawa should be opened or not. I think it should be opened. East Africa is no longer what it was before. We should be the number one power in Africa. Security issues are no longer a big deal. The strongest forces in the north are the Italians and the British. The British have controlled Egypt in the past few years, but the countries we border are mainly Sudan and British Somaliland in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The threat is not at the same level as Cape Town.

Not to mention Italy, which poses almost no military threat and needs our support to gain a foothold on the Ethiopian plateau. ”

This is not because the East African officials are humiliating Italy, but because of the traditional psychological advantage of the Germans over the Italians. Italy itself is not a powerful country, especially after the restoration of the Kingdom of Naples, in the eyes of East Africa it is only slightly stronger than the Kingdom of Portugal.

(End of this chapter)