Supreme Sacred Ring, Carefree Tycoon!
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Others may not know the rising trend of international crude oil prices in the next ten years or so, but Yang Jing knows it very clearly.
After entering the new century, the international crude oil market, which had been silent for 20 years, finally ushered in a huge bull market. Due to the influence of the Bush administration's actions against Iraq, international crude oil prices have been soaring since the beginning of 2003.
At the beginning of this year, the international crude oil price once again broke through $30 a barrel, and then it would never look back in the next five or six years!
In September 2004, affected by the Iraq War, international crude oil prices once again exceeded $40 a barrel, and then continued to rise, breaking through $50 a barrel for the first time.
In June 2005, international crude oil prices broke through $60 a barrel for the first time and continued to accelerate.
In August 2005, Mexico was hit by Hurricane Katrina and the international crude oil price exceeded $70 per barrel for the first time.
On September 12, 2007, the international crude oil price broke through $80 per barrel for the first time, and then continued to accelerate.
On October 18, 2007, the international crude oil price broke through $90 a barrel for the first time and approached $100 a barrel by the end of the year!
In 2008, international crude oil prices soared sharply. On July 14 of that year, the crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit an all-time high of US$147.27 per barrel.
This was the period from 2003 to 2008 when international crude oil prices skyrocketed. During these six years, international crude oil prices almost increased fivefold!
However, after the international crude oil price reached its highest point, the US subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global financial crisis, and the high-energy negative impact on the international crude oil market was completely detonated. The international crude oil price took a gorgeous high dive in just half a year.
On January 21, 2009, the price of crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $33.20!
This is the dramatic change in international crude oil prices in the six or seven years after entering the first decade of the new century.
In fact, judging from the changes in international oil prices during this period, the six-year surge has gone through two stages. To sum up, there was a steady rise in the early stage and a "crazy roller coaster" in the later stage.
Judging from changes over time and oil prices, a price of $80 per barrel is actually a more reasonable price, and an oil price of $50-80 per barrel is the rational range of international oil prices.
However, since November 2007, due to the impact of OPEC's decision to cut production, coupled with the rapid growth of the global economy and strong demand for Chinese crude oil, the international crude oil bulls have become stronger. In particular, the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate cuts and the depreciation of the US dollar at that time have led to a significant rise in speculative sentiment.
The substantial increase in demand in China and OPEC’s decision to cut production have led to huge positive effects on both the supply and demand sides. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s substantial interest rate cuts and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, the powerful international hot money naturally set its sights on the international crude oil market, causing oil prices to surge to an incredible $147!
But everything that goes up must come down. The world economy at that time could not afford such high crude oil prices, especially the global financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in October 2008 that swept across Europe and the United States, eventually detonating a huge high-energy negative force. Oil prices plummeted to US$33.2 per barrel in just half a year.
Of course, during this period, countless high-rise buildings and famous bridges in Europe and the United States also had a gorgeous "human dumpling rain"...
However, the oil price falling to the lowest point is not the final result. After this wave of dramatic fluctuations, the US dollar exchange rate has clearly shown a downward trend, and the support for oil prices has become strong, as the Fed's QE1-QE3 are fully launched. At the same time, concerns about tight supply have emerged one after another, such as OPEC's continued production restrictions for profit, the Libyan war in 2011, and the Iranian oil embargo in 2012. International oil prices have once again returned to the path of rising.
Especially since the second quarter of 2009, the global economy has gradually emerged from the shadow of the financial crisis, and oil prices have begun to rise again, and stabilized in the high range of US$90-120 per barrel between 2011 and the first half of 2014.
However, as the Fed was about to end QE in October 2014 and the Eurozone's QE was about to start in 2015, coupled with Saudi Arabia and OPEC's insistence on not cutting production, supply was abundant and demand was weak. So starting in July 2014, bulls fled in panic and traders' bearish sentiment continued to grow.
Under such circumstances, international oil prices once again took a gorgeous dive. From July 2014 to January 2015, the asking price once again fell below the $50 barrel mark within half a year......
In other words, this twelve-year-long oil market can actually be divided into four stages.
The first stage was the six and a half years from the beginning of 2003 to July 2008. Atlantic Capital, controlled by Niamh, could go all out in long positions. Although oil prices fluctuated in the middle, especially from the end of 2006 to the beginning of February 2007, when oil prices plummeted by $20, this stage could have been avoided as long as the market was controlled well.
But in general, with the crazy rise in international oil prices during this period, as long as the operation is done well, the Dragon Fund will gain huge profit margins.
Yang Jing admitted that the Dragon Fund under his name was not a good one. Strictly speaking, Soros's Quantum Fund and Robertson's Tiger Fund were as pure as a virgin in front of the Dragon Fund...
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