On another battlefield.

By this time, news of another large-scale attack on the Thai baht had spread throughout the market. Several versions of rumors circulated, the most plausible being that Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund had once again led international speculative capital in an attack on the baht.

And the market generally believes that this news is the most accurate.

However, careful institutions quickly discovered, through analysis of the market and integration of information, that the facts were not as the rumors suggested, or rather, that the rumors were inconsistent with the facts.

First, the attack was not very large; the total transaction volume for the day was only seven or eight billion US dollars, which was significantly smaller than the attack in May.

As is typical of hedge funds, there are always rumors circulating before an attack, but on this particular day, the market was generally calm, which is quite unusual for hedge funds.

As a result, some people in the market started to think about short-term arbitrage opportunities and risked entering the market to trade, because no one believed that a transaction of only seventy or eighty US dollars could possibly collapse the fixed exchange rate mechanism of the Thai baht.

During the Asian trading session, the Thai baht exchange rate against the US dollar settled at 25.97 in the spot market, while the futures exchange rate was 26.12.

From the market perspective, at least the spot market withstood the pressure and did not reach the lower limit set by the BOT, which means that the BOT still has the ability to resist.

Subsequently, the European and American markets opened one after another.

After initially testing the waters with the Thai baht, trading volume gradually increased, and the price of the baht fluctuated between 25.97 and 25.99. Even when it occasionally appeared at 26, it was quickly pulled up again, indicating that there was a force supporting the Thai baht.

In the futures market, fleeing funds have reappeared. Their strategy is to profit from the exchange rate difference between different markets by buying and selling. In a sense, these funds and the funds of bots are all aimed at protecting the price of Thai baht futures contracts.

......

Thailand.

A high-level conference call, bringing together numerous high-ranking officials from the central bank, the Ministry of Finance, and government economic advisors, is underway.

"In the past three trading days, there has been a wave of selling of Thai baht in European and American markets to varying degrees. I believe that today's attack was also a long-planned operation."

Malaga first introduced the recent events of the day, and then briefly recounted the events that had occurred during the day, so that everyone participating in the meeting would have a clear understanding.

"So, President Malaga, how much US dollar foreign exchange reserves do we currently hold?" A slightly hoarse voice interrupted his speech, asking the core question directly.

The speaker was Chachai, an economic advisor to the number two figure.

In fact, as early as when the Thai baht was first attacked, Chachai began advocating for the liberalization of the exchange rate system, and was once isolated by the second leader.

But as the situation developed, this staff expert once again became a guest of honor of the number two.

Ultimately, the Thai model capitalized on the needs of other developed regions to transfer capital, explore new markets, and reduce labor costs. This is similar to the development models of other regions and countries in Southeast Asia. In this context, a fixed exchange rate system became the only viable option for attracting foreign capital and relying on exports to drive local economic growth.

But now, this model has clearly come to an end.

Although Malaga was thinking about these things, he quickly replied, "This number no longer needs to be kept secret. Judging from the current rate of consumption, it will probably be difficult to sustain until tomorrow's trading hours."

Upon hearing this, a collective gasp came from the other end of the phone. Clearly, none of these people realized how serious the problem had become, that they couldn't even hold on for a day.

After the initial shock came a deathly silence.

After a while, Cha Cai's voice came through the phone, asking, "How many positions in the futures and forex market are still open?"

Selling US dollars in the spot market and buying US dollar-Thai baht contracts in the futures market is a way of hedging. However, both markets were attacked later, and the bot was forced to protect the Thai baht in both markets at the same time. This is why a large amount of US dollar funds were consumed.

This is the fundamental reason why foreign exchange reserves have been rapidly depleted.

"Due to underestimation of the forecast, the positions in the futures market have hardly been closed out, and there are still positions worth at least $30 billion on hand."

At this point, Malaga's heart sank, and his tone became somewhat unnatural.

If the Thai baht is devalued, the futures market will immediately fall, and at that point, these positions will become a huge, continuously losing burden.

However, since the amount of foreign exchange reserves has always been a top secret of the BOT, not many people know about it, and even lower-level traders are unaware of it.

Most of them simply follow orders and are responsible for foreign exchange transactions within a certain scope of authority; they have no way of accessing such confidential information.

“You…” Cha Cai stomped his foot angrily and shouted, “What are you thinking about now? Hurry up and have everyone clear out all the positions. Every little bit of loss we can recover is a loss. Once the positions have been reduced to a certain size, then announce free float!”

At this point, even Cha Cai didn't have a good solution, let alone the many other high-ranking officials. When it came to the economy, they still had to rely on the experts' opinions, and the experts didn't even offer any constructive suggestions.

Upon hearing this, Malaga made a gesture, and one of the currency experts who was participating in the meeting with him immediately went out to begin arranging for the liquidation of positions in the futures market.

The meeting continued after the monetary experts left.

"According to your estimates, what kind of market reaction will occur if the Thai baht is devalued? Or, what is the expected price of the Thai baht?" At this point, the number two finally spoke up.

In fact, from the moment he brought this up, the devaluation of the Thai baht was already inevitable.

But the question now is, what will that number be, and can the Thai government afford the consequences of the devaluation? That's what everyone needs to consider next.

Malaga glanced at the other currency experts, who all nodded in agreement, and then cautiously said, "I had a discussion with several currency experts about this matter, and our final opinion is that it will depreciate by 20%-30%, but the exact figure depends on the situation, and it's hard to say at the moment."

The words had barely left his mouth.

Another gasp came from the other end of the phone.

They never expected that the Thai baht would fall to this extent once the devaluation was announced.

This time, the second-ranking official was also anxious and immediately asked an official from the Ministry of Finance: "If the Thai baht is devalued, what will happen to domestic financial institutions?"

......