Chapter 171 (Zhihu Style) - How to Evaluate South Africa...

Title: How to evaluate Italy, the champion of the South Africa World Cup?

As the title suggests, the South Africa World Cup has ended. Why was Italy able to defeat strong teams like the Netherlands, Brazil, and Uruguay against all odds, and finally meet the European champions Spain in the final? After a fierce 120-minute battle, Italy defeated Spain in a penalty shootout to successfully defend their World Cup title.

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In conclusion, this was a victory achieved by sheer luck. Lippi's erratic player selection, coupled with Pirlo's injury, led to Cabrini's exceptional performance, ultimately lifting Italy to the podium.

It all started with the 23-man squad announced by Lippi.

Italy's 23-man squad is still based on the core of the team that won the 2006 World Cup in Germany. In theory, this should be a move towards stability. However, the problem is that the veterans of the 2006 World Cup-winning squad are four years older, and their physical condition and form are simply not the same as they were four years ago.

Players like Cannavaro, Zambrotta, Iaquinta, and Camoranesi are no longer at the level they were four years ago. They can't even get a starting position at their clubs, but Lippi still blindly trusts them and gives them starting positions.

Of course, this is also due to the lack of promising young players in Italy. After the "Calciopoli" scandal, Serie A seemed to have run its course. Apart from Cabrini, no other world-class stars have been cultivated—we'll talk about Cabrini in more detail later. Players like Marchetti, Maggio, and Simone Pepe were only selected for major tournaments for the first time when they were in their late twenties, which speaks volumes about their ability and potential. It's clear that Italy really has no one left to rely on, forcing Lippi to depend on veterans.

Another point of contention regarding Lippi's player selection criteria is his rejection of players who are unruly and overly individualistic, no matter how talented they are, such as Cassano. If Italy had a "number 9.5" like Cassano, they wouldn't have struggled so much in the group stage after losing Pirlo, even finding it difficult to beat a weak team like New Zealand. Cassano could have easily shouldered the responsibility of organizing the attack, or Totti could have done the same.

In the goalkeeper position, Lippi may have placed too much trust in Buffon. The two substitute goalkeepers he brought along were both disappointing. As everyone saw, after Buffon was injured and forced to leave the field in the first round of the group stage, the two substitute goalkeepers underperformed from the group stage to the knockout stage, and were completely overwhelmed in the final.

Of course, Lippi's player selection also had some surprises, the biggest being the return of Nesta. Without Nesta, given Cannavaro's humiliating performance in the first two group stage matches, coupled with the two sleepwalking goalkeepers, Italy would have been packing their bags and heading home after the group stage.

And then there's Ambrosini's selection. I don't know why, but Lippi used to absolutely dislike Ambrosini, and I don't know why, now that Ambrosini is getting older, he suddenly seems to appreciate him. Of course, as a Milan fan, I'm very happy that Ambrosini can make an appearance at the World Cup; his ability is definitely enough to make him a rotation player.

When the 23-man squad was announced, many people probably thought the same as me: with players like De Rossi, Marchisio, Montolivo, and Camoranesi in the lineup, Ambrosini, a versatile player, might not get much playing time. Who would have thought that in Italy's third group stage match against Slovakia, the starting lineup would undergo a complete overhaul, with Ambrosini getting playing time and making a significant contribution.

Let's talk about tactics.

Four years have passed, and the prevailing trend in world football has begun to shift towards high-pressing and fast passing, with Spain and Germany being typical examples. However, Lippi still used the defensive counter-attacking tactics employed during the German World Cup.

To succeed in a counter-attacking game, Italy's defense must be solid. With Buffon injured and Cannavaro and Zambrotta in poor form, Italy's defense is already unstable. Adding to this, Pirlo was injured in a pre-season friendly, and players like De Rossi, Montolivo, and Marchisio are unable to shoulder the responsibility of playmaking. Without their midfield maestro, Italy has lost its ability to orchestrate long passes and launch effective counter-attacks.

Italy is like a bird in a cage, unable to spread its wings and fly, left only to wait for its demise.

After two group stage matches, defending champions Italy have only accumulated 2 points and are in a precarious situation.

The third group stage match was a turning point for Italy in the South Africa World Cup. It was from this match that Italy reversed its previous slump and began a winning streak.

We still don't know what happened within the Italian national team that led to such a dramatic change in the roster. As a result, Juventus players like Cannavaro, Marchisio, and Iaquinta, who had previously started consecutively, were all dropped, while Nesta, Gattuso, and Ambrosini took over the starting lineup. Nesta even replaced Cannavaro, wearing the captain's armband and becoming the core of the defense.

After Nesta came on, Italy's defense immediately became much more solid and was no longer a sieve.

The most crucial change in Italy's starting lineup was Cabrini's drop back. No one expected that Cabrini, who had dropped back, would step up and shoulder the organizational responsibility that De Rossi and other midfielders were unable to do.

Cabrini performed flawlessly; he was like a second Pirlo, but a Pirlo with even greater physical strength and dribbling ability.

Cabrini and the Milan contingent helped Italy win their third group stage match, securing second place in the group and advancing to the knockout stage.

After entering the knockout stage, Pirlo finally recovered from his injury and returned, but Cabrini did not return to the front line. Lippi must have realized that putting Cabrini on the front line was a waste in Italy's defensive counter-attacking tactics; he was perfectly capable of taking on more responsibility.

This decision can be said to have saved Italy.

Italy's opponents in the knockout stage—the Netherlands, Brazil, and Uruguay—were all very strong, making the matches very difficult for Italy. Under these circumstances, Cabrini exploded onto the scene, proving himself capable in both attack and defense, and single-handedly dragged Italy into the final.

Everyone knows the story of the final: penalty shootout, Cabrini in goal, Italy wins.

If Lippi's player selections are sound, and he includes Cassano or Totti, and Pirlo remains uninjured, then Cabrini won't drop back; he'll stay on the front line. With this lineup, Italy should have no problem advancing from the group stage, but they definitely won't get past the Netherlands.

That's why I said this was a championship victory by sheer chance. The criticized roster and the injury to the midfield's key player actually turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Italy, allowing them to go all the way to the end.

Finally, I'd like to talk about the player Cabrini.

Without a doubt, Cabrini is the best player currently playing. He was able to carry Milan to a double when he was with Milan, and he was able to carry Italy to the World Cup when he was with the national team. The key is that he is not yet 22 years old, and theoretically he has not yet entered his peak period - although his performance is already as stable as if he were in his peak period.

Cabrini is a prime example of someone who achieved fame at a young age, but there's no need to worry about whether his success is just a flash in the pan. Unless he suffers a major injury like Van Basten, he can definitely remain at his peak for many years to come.

This guy is ruthless.

Surely everyone knows he trained as a goalkeeper during his youth academy years, right? Even if you didn't know before, you should know after the penalty shootout in the World Cup final.

Since joining Milan's youth academy at the age of 10, Cabrini has always trained as a goalkeeper. When he was 16 and eligible to sign an apprenticeship contract, his growth plates showed that his height had stabilized at around 180cm. This height is not an advantage for a goalkeeper in the senior team. This guy continued to play goalkeeper while also starting to train in other positions. After so many years of hard work, he was ready to start over without hesitation.

After joining the first team, he was promoted to the forward line, but when Kaká was injured, he was perfectly capable of filling in for him. Milan fans were ecstatic, believing he was a talented forward emerging from Milanello, only almost wasting his potential as a goalkeeper. However, after this World Cup, everyone realized that their assessment of Cabrini was too conservative.

As it turns out, this was a huge windfall for AC Milan. He's a true all-rounder; he can win the Ballon d'Or as a striker, he can fill Pirlo's role in midfield organization, and his defensive tackles are quite impressive. You could say he can play any position on the pitch. Give him the opportunity, and he'll do his best. Even if he doesn't reach the level of the absolute best in his position, he's far superior to the average player.

For example, in the goalkeeper position, he is not as good as Casillas and Buffon, but he is definitely better than Marchetti and De Sanctis. Although he has never played as a defender properly, judging from his several tackles and saves, he may not be as good as Nesta and Maldini. After he gets familiar with the position, he should be able to compete with Kaladze and Favalli.

More importantly, this guy has a naturally strong mentality; he's the type who gets stronger when facing strong opponents and is particularly good at playing from behind. Once he encounters a strong team and falls into a disadvantageous position, he's prone to exploding into his best form, just like in the South Africa World Cup.

My earliest acquaintance with him was during the 2008 Champions League knockout stage match between AC Milan and Arsenal at Milan's home stadium. If you haven't seen it, I recommend you do; Cabrini's performance at that time was absolutely stunning.

I'm putting this out there today: unless Cabrini suffers a serious injury and unexpectedly passes away, he's destined to be the king of football.

Feel free to prove me wrong.

————Comments Section————

Floor 1: There are two rumors circulating about why Lippi previously refused to call up Ambrosini. One is that Lippi tried to poach Ambrosini to Juventus multiple times, and retaliated after being rejected. The other is that Lippi's son wanted to be Ambrosini's agent, and retaliated after being rejected. I tend to believe the second one, because GEA, an agency similar to Mafia, declined after the "Calciopoli" scandal, and Lippi has started calling up Ambrosini.

Floor 2: "Cabrini + the Milan contingent helped Italy win their third group stage match, advancing to the knockout stage as the second-place team in their group." It's not Cabrini + the Milan contingent; Cabrini already belonged to the Milan contingent. Thank you!

3rd Floor: AC Milan won a huge prize... but the brain-dead management sold it off cheaply... Milan fans' hearts are bleeding...

4th floor: I don't quite agree. It feels like they shot the arrow first and then drew the target. But I agree with Cabrini's assessment. This guy is really amazing, a natural leader. He became a big shot in the team at a young age, and even the veterans of the national team seem to respect him.

[Reply to post #4] After all, it's competitive sports, and ability speaks for itself. With Cabrini's strength, he can do whatever he wants anywhere.

5th floor: LOL, so awesome, but they still can't beat Barcelona!

[Reply to post #5] ? ? ?

[Reply to post #5] Didn't Milan win the Champions League trophy by beating Barcelona in 2009?

[Reply to post #5] Can't Real Madrid be allowed a year to gel after rebuilding? The new season is about to start, Mourinho is coming, just you wait!

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Author's note: Thank you everyone for your support! [cheering emojis]

The new season starts tomorrow, and barring any unforeseen circumstances, this will be the last season in the timeline described in the article. [starry-eyed][starry-eyed][starry-eyed]