Chapter 444 Bangkok Rainy Season: Only July 2nd

On the night of June 18, 1997, or more specifically, in the early hours of the 19th, many well-informed people were destined to have a sleepless night.

Wang Xiao felt that the most tragic situation for a person was probably this kind of half-baked situation—having a source of information, otherwise he wouldn't have been able to hear about the government's emergency cabinet meeting.

However, the source of this information was not reliable enough, and it was unclear what exactly was said at the meeting. So the information could only be spread wildly among telephones, fax machines, and online forums.

The incessant ringing of telephones, the beeping of fax machines, and the clattering of keyboards by netizens combined to keep all participants awake.

What Wang Xiao heard was the sound of rain.

It seemed like it had been raining all night in Bangkok, and she slept soundly until dawn amidst the pattering rain.

When Wang Xiao opened her eyes and stepped out of the room, she saw Zhou Liang's bald eyes and dark circles that had reached his cheekbones. She felt a rare pang of sympathy for him: "You've worked hard. Go and eat first."

Zhou Liang admired his boss's good attitude, truly remaining calm even when Mount Tai collapsed before him.

That's a billion US dollars! How can she be so nonchalant about it?

No, no, his heart can't take it anymore.

Wang Xiao gestured for him to look out the hotel restaurant window: "Does it really matter? When everyone, everyone who can make a sound, believes it is, then it's as good as it is."

Look at the long lines outside the bank branches. Even though it's raining again, it can't stop them from rushing to withdraw their money.

With a loud "crack," the hotel building seemed to be struck by lightning, and the windows shook.

Torrential rain and raging floods made it difficult for this Thai boat to survive the storm and floodwaters.

Unfortunately, the ship had a large hole in it.

So, in a panic, some people grabbed whatever they could get their hands on and desperately tried to plug the hole, even though the boulder might crush the ship.

Some people were desperately breaking off planks from the boat, hoping to float in the floodwaters and avoid drowning by clinging to the pieces of wood.

Who among them can blame the other?

After all, everyone's goal is to survive this disaster.

Hurried footsteps sounded at the restaurant entrance, and someone shouted in English, "It's been announced!"

Then the bustling restaurant fell silent instantly. After a brief pause of half a second, almost everyone rushed out of the restaurant.

My God!

Berikov stared at the surging crowd, unable to believe his eyes.

Are all these people, all the guests at this hotel, investors?

Tang Yicheng couldn't stop himself from stepping outside and casually replied, "Winter is the peak tourist season in Bangkok."

He said the hotel was fully booked, and business was just too good.

On the television screen, Thai Finance Minister Wirawong and Commerce Minister Agassani announced their resignations with somber expressions. However, as the Finance Minister stood up to leave, he suddenly turned around and shouted into the reporters' microphones: "It is my responsibility that the problem has developed to this point, so I have decided to resign as Finance Minister. But I still believe that the current rescue policies are essential, and only by persisting can we possibly avert the crisis."

Unfortunately, at this moment, it's likely that no one will listen to him anymore.

Inside the hotel, someone was laughing loudly and couldn't wait to make a phone call.

Some people were also shouting curses, cursing him as a coward for running away at the crucial moment.

The rain in June finally stopped, and the sun shone brightly outside the window, but unfortunately, the sunny weather in Bangkok did not arrive.

On June 19, the same day the finance minister resigned, the Thai baht plummeted to 28 baht to 1 US dollar.

On the evening of the 19th, Wang Xiao stood by the window of the hotel and saw someone burning a large portrait of former Finance Minister Vilavan in the street.

His departure did not quell the public's disappointment and anger as the Thai government had hoped.

On the contrary, the public's anger, fueled by panic, burned even more fiercely.

There were even more people marching and demonstrating in the streets, with all sorts of slogans and banners forming a chaotic mess.

Some say the government's delay in electing a new finance minister is simply a way to fool the public, and that it's just a sham resignation by Vilawan.

Even now, the government still hasn't given up on this indecisive and incompetent finance minister.

Thailand's exchange rate mechanism should have been changed long ago, but this irresponsible finance minister has kept delaying and has not made any decision.

That's what dragged Thailand to this irreversible state.

Some also cursed the government for breaking its promise, saying that its vow to defend the Thai baht to the death was nothing but empty rhetoric.

Many other voices are calling on the government to abandon the ban issued on June 2, arguing that only in this way can a free Thai economy be restored.

All sorts of rumors are spreading like wildfire.

The information Wang Xiao heard, which had been passed around several times, included the fact that on the 21st, senior officials of the Bank of Thailand held a meeting and finally decided to change the exchange rate.

She received the news on June 23rd. That day, Thailand's new Finance Minister, Thanompitaya, was sworn in.

However, contrary to rumors, he did not immediately announce an adjustment to the Thai baht exchange rate after taking office.

The market reaction was even more intense, and the entire banking system seemed to collapse.

People lined up to exchange their money for half a day at the bank, but were unable to do so successfully.

Then rumors spread throughout the streets that banks had stopped exchanging Thai baht for US dollars because they were in a hurry to convert their Thai baht into US dollars to protect their assets.

Wang Xiao didn't know whether this statement was right or wrong, and she was no longer willing to go out on the street.

The streets of Bangkok were filled with angry crowds, and the exterior walls of various buildings were spray-painted with curses and insults.

This country, bathed in the light of Buddha, lost its peace and compassion in June 1997, leaving only anxiety and despair.

Zhou Liang felt like he was being put on the hot seat. He even suspected he had malaria, otherwise why would he feel so tormented?

Even though the market was moving in line with his expectations and the short sellers' offensive was becoming increasingly fierce, as long as the Thai government did not announce an adjustment to its exchange rate policy, this battle would not end.

He paced back and forth in the hotel, so anxious that he developed mouth ulcers and couldn't even eat Thai food, surviving on nothing but congee and side dishes.

When he couldn't take it anymore, he finally ran up to Wang Xiao and said, "Boss, should we add more fuel to the fire?"

The new finance minister has been in office for so long, yet there has been absolutely no reaction; it's like he's been keeping a hawk in suspense.

He simply couldn't take it anymore and had to speed things up.

It started raining heavily outside the window again. In Southeast Asia's summer rainy season, it's always a cycle of rain and heat, making the weather as stuffy as a steamer.

Wang Xiao slowly sipped her herbal tea, enduring the bitterness, otherwise her constitution wouldn't be able to withstand the heat and humidity of Bangkok.

“No need.” The boss refused decisively. “We’ve done everything we could. Just because the new finance minister hasn’t announced any new policies doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily stick to the old ones.”

She smiled and said, "If the ban continues, there's no need for Thailand to change its finance minister."

Zhou Liang couldn't be as optimistic as his boss: "But if he wanted to lift the ban and open up the exchange rate, why hasn't there been any reaction yet?"

He was really afraid that Thailand would launch a major attack, and that they would fight the short sellers to the death.

Wang Xiao took a sip of herbal tea, which was so bitter that he frowned. He tried to endure it, but the aftertaste didn't come through. He could only say regretfully, "I guess there are two possibilities. One is that they are currently busy discussing countermeasures and finding the best way to devalue the product."

Currency devaluation is not necessarily the end of the world; often, it serves as a positive financial tool. And, as proven by facts, its effect on stimulating foreign trade exports is unique and unparalleled.

Zhou Liang could accept this, but he hoped to get more guidance from his boss.

Before he left for Bangkok, Mr. Zhang Junfei reminded him that his boss would most likely only guide him this once, and he would have to rely on himself for everything after that.

He needs to learn more, until he can take on responsibilities; otherwise, he might not be the one to shoulder the burden later.

So he pressed on, asking, "What's the other possibility?"

Wang Xiao put down his teacup, feeling the stimulation of sweating after drinking the cold tea, and slowly said, "Another possibility is that it's about hitting a deadline. Tell me, what is the deadline for the first half of the year's financial statements?"

Without hesitation, Zhou Liang replied, "June 30th."

As soon as he said it, he suddenly realized, "Oh right! If the Thai baht exchange rate is liberalized at the end of June, all Thai banks' balance sheets for the first half of this year will be completely wiped out."

Suffering such a huge loss from currency devaluation, many banks that were already riddled with problems due to the real estate crash and stock market plunge may immediately become insolvent.

Others may not care so much about the fate of banks, but Thailand's newly appointed Finance Minister Thanom Pidayat is a veteran of the banking industry with many years of experience.

Only those who work in the same field can truly understand the hardships they face.

Whether for his own political future or out of professional ethics as a banker, he had no reason to put the bank in such a precarious position.

Having sorted out his thoughts, Zhou Liang couldn't help but give his boss a thumbs up: "President Wang, you're amazing. I never thought of that."

Wang Xiao waved his hand: "I'm just guessing."

In fact, before she traveled through time, she saw that Thailand had only announced the liberalization of the exchange rate on July 2nd, so she naturally assumed that Thailand was considering Hong Kong's return to China on July 1st and did not want its affairs to be disrupted.

Just like how the Soviet Union managed to hold on until December 26, 1991, the day after Christmas in the West, before announcing its disintegration.

Even in May of this year, when the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and the Bank of Thailand joined forces to inject funds into the market to withdraw Thai baht, her original idea was further solidified.

But after arriving in Thailand in June, its initial assumptions began to waver.

Unlike the Soviet Union back then, the Thai government doesn't believe that the damage is irreversible, so it doesn't matter if the announcement is made after Christmas.

Thailand has not given up and is still actively trying to save its economy.

Therefore, all its decisions must be based on considerations of its own national interests.

Reports are crucial for all professionals, especially those in finance.

Whether or not we can produce impressive reports is a matter of life and death for everyone.

Zhou Liang was now completely convinced of his boss's guess: "That must be it. They need to move the accounts to the second half of the year to have time to settle them."

so--

The financial executives of Wuzhou Group had an astonishingly bright eye. "It will definitely be announced in early July. It can't be delayed any longer; it can't afford to delay any longer."

Wang Xiao laughed and said, "Early July? When exactly is that?"

“July 2nd,” Zhou Liang answered decisively, “because July 1st is a bank holiday.”

Wang Xiao clapped his hands with a smile: "I don't need to tell you what to do next, do I?"

Zhou Liang nodded vigorously.

The scorching Bangkok sun was burning his blood, and he was incredibly excited.

He thought he seemed to have grasped a bit of the laws governing how the world works.

That is to say, no matter how grand the issue or how important the decision, it is ultimately made by people.

But when you consider them from the perspective of human nature, you'll find that they actually have a logical basis.

Zhou Liang excitedly went off to work hard.

Tang Yicheng was caught in a dilemma, torn between two options and in great pain.

Don't get me wrong, it's not that Brother Tang has gotten himself into trouble with some women again, it's just that he's unsure whether he should return to Hong Kong.

July 1st! Hong Kong will return to China on July 1st. Who wouldn't want to be there in person to witness this historic moment?

But now that this invisible war in Thailand has reached its final moments, he is equally reluctant to leave the battlefield.

He's never personally experienced a real financial war in his entire life.

Finally, Tang Yicheng gritted his teeth, stamped his foot, and decided to stay in Thailand.

After all, the situation in Hong Kong is already a foregone conclusion—of course, things have come to this point, and Britain, apart from possibly making trouble over minor issues, is powerless to disrupt the overall situation.

It was no longer the British Empire it once was; World War II reduced it to a de facto second-rate power.

If the United States didn't need allies in Europe to maintain the world order it desired, it might not even have a foothold anymore.

Given the current state of affairs in Britain, unless Britain has lost its mind, it is absolutely impossible for it to make a foolish mistake at this time.

Oh, America!

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, it truly became the world's leading power and the sole hegemon.

Putting everything else aside, let's just talk about the US dollar. Isn't the direct cause of Thailand's current predicament the fact that the government doesn't have enough US dollars?

If it could just pull out a mountain of dollars and crush the short sellers, even if ten Soross were tied together to short sell, it would be a waste of time.

But what is the US dollar? It is not gold, not a natural currency; its essence is just paper, printed by printing presses in the United States.

What is the essential difference between it and the Thai baht?

Its power and status in the world financial market are entirely granted to it by American hegemony.

Thinking of this, Tang Yicheng's excitement and exhilaration at being at the center of the financial war were all extinguished by a bucket of cold water.

He shook his head and tried to find reasons to strengthen his resolve to stay: "Hong Kong is stable, but Thailand is another story. Who knows if they'll pull another trick?"

It is said that a small temple has a lot of evil spirits, and a shallow pond has many turtles. The smaller the country, the more likely it is to do things that will surprise people.

As it turns out, one really shouldn't speak carelessly, otherwise, one's words may very well become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

No sooner had Tang Yicheng finished speaking than, on June 30th, Thai Prime Minister Chavalit assured the world on television: "The Thai baht will not be devalued, and we will make those speculators lose everything."

Little Tang slapped himself across the face, saying, "Serves you right for being so foul-mouthed! Now you're finished, aren't you? Judging from the Thai government's attitude, there's still a lot of trouble ahead."

Zhou Liang felt his vision blur. Oh my god, is it going to happen again? Another month?

However, he arranged it according to the fact that the Thai government would announce the liberalization of the exchange rate on July 2nd.

If another month comes, how will we make up for this huge loss?

Dark clouds loomed outside the window, and summer thunderstorms came one after another; it seemed that the sky in Bangkok would never brighten again.

Wang Xiao stared at the television, momentarily stunned, then relaxed, saying, "Don't worry about it, it's just a delaying tactic."

Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are almost depleted, and rumors are circulating that the government is about to give up defending the baht. What would happen if the Thai government didn't make an urgent statement at this time, emphasizing that it would continue to protect the exchange rate?

The Thai baht will completely collapse; it won't even wait for the government to announce the liberalization of the exchange rate before it collapses.

Anyone with too much money will rush to the bank to withdraw their funds, trying to squeeze every last drop out of the foreign exchange reserves.

The Thai government could also go bankrupt.

At the end of last year, a new coalition government was formed in Thailand, and it took a hard line, stating that it would defend the Thai baht and prevent its devaluation. Therefore, the new government's staunchest supporters are the beneficiaries of the baht's fixed exchange rate.

If the government doesn't make a statement now and give them confidence, Thai society could very well descend into chaos immediately.

The Prime Minister must step forward and speak at this critical moment to prolong the battle and mitigate the immediate impact of the massive waves crashing against Thailand, preventing it from shattering into pieces instantly.

Once Wang Xiao had sorted out her thoughts, she calmly continued drinking her herbal tea.

What else can we do? We've come this far, all we can do is stubbornly hold on!

Once the arrow is released, there's no turning back.

Tang Yicheng endured the agonizing days of June 30th until July 1st, the day Hong Kong returned to China.

To Wang Xiao's surprise, the Thai Chinese were quite excited. At a time when Thailand's economic future was uncertain, many shopping malls were showing live broadcasts of Hong Kong's return to China on their televisions.

On this day, Thailand was as calm as Hong Kong.

Because it was a holiday, there were no longer long queues outside the banks.

Tang Yicheng felt both gratified and disappointed. He stayed up until the evening to watch the variety show before finally going to bed.

His mind was racing, and he spent most of the night lying in bed, until dawn broke and he finally began to feel sleepy.

But just as he drifted off to sleep, his assistant came knocking on his door: "Mr. Tang, Mr. Tang, wake up! Something terrible has happened!"

Tang Yicheng suddenly rolled off the bed, his temples throbbing with pain.

This is terrible! Such a loud noise is enough to wake up not only people on the first floor, but also the people downstairs.

That's absolutely infuriating!

But when he went to open the door, still wrapped in his pajamas and cursing, he found that no one had time to curse him anymore.

The entire hotel was in an uproar; people were opening room doors, looking for their companions, and busy making phone calls and sending faxes.

He grabbed his assistant and pressed, "What's wrong? What's wrong? What exactly happened?"

The assistant's face was full of excitement: "It's been announced! Thailand has announced that it will allow the Thai baht, which is pegged to the US dollar, to float."

This means that the Thai government's six-month-long battle to defend the baht has officially ended in failure.

Tang Yicheng's eyes widened: "Where was it announced? In the newspapers or on radio and television? When was it announced?"

There was no news at all last night, and this morning at this hour, no workplace is open yet?

"There were no newspapers; they notified everyone by phone, calling executives from Thai and foreign banks one by one. Oh dear, Mr. Tang, you'd better hurry over; the bosses are all up."

His assistant urged him on, pushing him forward.

Tang Yicheng cursed under his breath and hurriedly ran to Wang Xiao's suite.

The entire hotel was brightly lit, and her room was as bright as day.

Zhou Liang grinned like a fool after passing the imperial examination: "You guessed right, it's today! It's today!"

Wang Xiao rubbed her temples, utterly speechless.

Does she have some misunderstanding about the banking and financial system?

Can you believe it? At 4:30 a.m., the Bank of Thailand began calling executives of local and foreign banks one by one, announcing its abandonment of the Thai baht exchange rate.

4:30 AM! 4:30 AM is when people are sleeping the best. If anyone calls her at this time, she'll want to kill them.

But the Thai government did exactly that.

Wang Xiao pinched the bridge of his nose and sighed, "This finance minister has really come up with every possible solution."

As is well known, the main force attacking the Thai baht comes from Wall Street speculative capital. The time difference between Wall Street in New York and Thailand is 11 hours, so 4:30 a.m. in Thailand is 5:30 p.m. in New York.

At this point, the New York market has already closed. Even if Wall Street receives the news, they can only take real action when the market opens the next day.

Another global financial market center, London, is already in the middle of the night, and the market will have to wait until it opens the next day.

In this way, the potential tsunami-like impact of announcing the decision during a period of peak liquidity and active speculative capital was avoided.

Meanwhile, the Tokyo and Singapore markets typically open between 8 and 9 a.m. Bangkok time, which is still a few hours away.

This gives major financial institutions time to prepare, preventing their trading systems from crashing due to complete confusion.

It's fair to say that the Thai government has racked its brains; even something less is better than nothing.

Tang Yicheng felt he had learned a lot from her analysis.

He felt that the world of finance was simply a microcosm of society, where every action it took would trigger a reaction from the entire society, so decision-makers had to take all aspects into account.

"Alright, we've done everything we needed to do. It's time for us to go downstairs for dinner."

Wang Xiao stood up, patted his forehead to try and wake himself up.

Tang Yicheng and the others chimed in in agreement. The great battle had finally come to an end, and they deserved a good meal.

To be honest, these past few days, because of the Thai baht situation, everyone has been suffering from loss of appetite and insomnia, and we haven't had time to enjoy the beautiful scenery and delicious food of Thailand.

After all, how many people in this world have a heart as strong as their boss, who is unmoved by external gains or losses and doesn't care about exchange rate fluctuations at all?

With a strong heart, Wang Xiao led the team ahead as if nothing had happened, calmly taking the elevator up and down the stairs.

Then her foot twisted, and she tumbled down the steps.

Good heavens, even though there were only five steps, everyone present was terrified.

It was so sudden! She had been walking steadily, wearing flat shoes, and the steps weren't steep at all, they were quite gentle. But then her foot slipped and she tumbled down.

When Xie An, who had made a comeback, fought the Battle of Fei River, he remained calm and composed.

But when the news of the victory arrived, he outwardly remained calm and composed, yet when he returned to his room, the tooth of his wooden clog broke without him even noticing.

The boss is probably similar to Xie An.

Lyuba immediately picked up her boss and shouted, "Quick, quick, to the hospital!"

Thank God, and thank her boss for being so wealthy.

In the past few days, even though Wang Xiao hasn't gone out much, he has chartered an air shuttle to be on standby and serve her.

Now, this helicopter isn't just waiting to be dispatched; it's saving lives.

Otherwise, given the severe traffic congestion during Bangkok's morning rush hour, it would be anyone's guess when the ambulance arrives and she gets to the hospital.

After all, in Bangkok, it's not uncommon for pregnant women to give birth in cars.

The helicopter took her to the nearest hospital, where a bunch of people were running around her, looking like they wanted to roll down the steps.

Good heavens, if something were to happen to the boss, how would we survive? Just thinking about it makes me feel like the sky is falling.

Wang Xiao was the calmest one among the group. She wasn't a fragile doll; it was just a gentle five-step slope. Apart from her ankle pain, she didn't feel any discomfort at all.

However, she couldn't stop everyone's tension. She was pushed around to do one test after another. The superiority of capitalism was on full display at this moment. With money paving the way, she didn't have to wait in line at all and always received VVIP treatment.

Finally, the doctor looked at her X-rays again and again, and finally came to a conclusion: there was nothing seriously wrong. Her ankle pain did not involve any bone injury; it was just a sprain. He advised her to apply a cold compress and wait for it to heal on its own.

Tang Yicheng immediately patted his chest and assured her, "Twisted ankle? No big deal. I have a secret medicinal oil that will make sure everything is fine as soon as you apply it."

Everyone breathed a sigh of relief. The boss was alright, so they could leave the hospital as soon as possible. After all, hospitals aren't exactly pleasant places.

A large group of people were pushing their boss toward the elevator when a heavily made-up transvestite walked out, his makeup smudged with sweat.

As soon as the other person saw Tang Yicheng, they instinctively grabbed Tang Yicheng's arm and rattled off a long string of Thai.

Luckily, they had a translator on their side, otherwise everyone would definitely wonder why Brother Tang keeps hiring ladyboys? One Lily wasn't enough, and now there's another one!

The translator dutifully completed his work: "Lily committed suicide. As soon as the news from the central bank came out today, she swallowed pills and is currently being resuscitated."

Tang Yicheng was completely bewildered. It was true that no one could escape the impact of a financial crisis, but if you weren't an investor, the impact was limited and would drag on for a long time.

Upon hearing the news, Lily committed suicide by overdosing on pills. The only explanation is that she was an investor, and the amount she invested far exceeded her financial capacity.

Brother Tang couldn't understand: "Why is she messing around for no reason? Can't she just go to work and earn money to live a normal life?"

The translator faithfully conveyed the meaning and then translated the other person's words: "He said that Lily is trying so hard to make money so that she can stand on equal footing with you."

The people present had subtle expressions. My God, what kind of tragic relationship is this?

Tang Yicheng, however, completely rejected moral blackmail. After all these years of struggling in the outside world, what kind of monsters and demons hadn't he seen? He would never believe such nonsense.

"Hey, let's get this straight. An adult, in their twenties, can only do things for themselves, either to satisfy their own desires or to realize their own ideals. The idea of ​​doing something for another person is just self-deception; it doesn't exist."

He sighed, took out his wallet, and said, "Alright, we've known each other for a long time, and it hasn't been easy for either of us. I'll pay for his medical expenses today. I wish him a speedy recovery and good health."

The idea of ​​someone staying at the hospital while waiting for news is irrelevant; we were just strangers who met by chance, and we don't have that kind of close relationship.

He paid the money because he had always shared the boss's bearish outlook, and he couldn't help but feel a little disappointed.

To put it bluntly, financial warfare is a game for the rich. What's the point of an ordinary person like me, who makes a living by selling their body through castration, getting involved?

You're the perfect leek to be harvested! If we don't harvest you, who will we harvest?

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Note: The decision made by the Thai Finance Minister mentioned in this chapter is mainly based on the book "A Decade in the Making: From Asian to Global Financial Crises" by Shen Liantao (then Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority).

When I was conceiving this article and researching, I had a question: why was the Thai government's response so slow? The finance minister left on June 19, and a new finance minister took office on the 23rd, but it was not until July 2 that the government announced its decision to abandon the exchange rate defense. In the short time in between, it was impossible to make a desperate move, so why did it take so long?

Later, when I was writing a semi-annual work summary report for my company, I suddenly realized the special nature of this period. I searched for a lot of information afterward, but couldn't find any supporting evidence; many online resources didn't explain it in such detail. Finally, I found this book in the company library, and its contents confirmed my hypothesis: it simply couldn't be released in the first half of the year.