Chapter Twenty-One: Observing the Waves of the Business World

In the early summer of the twenty-fifth year of the Zhenguan era, a sudden rainstorm swept through Yangzhou, and news of the damage to the three major salt fields of Huai Salt reached Chang'an even faster than the official post horses.

Liu Bao'er was checking accounts at the Datong Store's main branch when the sound of rain began to rise outside the window. Hu Liu, soaking wet, burst in: "Boss, urgent news from Yangzhou! A reduction in Huai salt production is a done deal!"

Almost simultaneously, news from various sources arrived one after another. Cui Jiulang's trusted confidants, the Lu family's manager in Yangzhou, and even the Zheng family's spies were all conveying the same message: the price of salt was about to rise.

"What's the current market price for salt certificates?" Liu Bao'er asked calmly, lightly tapping the ledger with her pen.

"Prices have already risen by 20%, and I heard that the big salt merchants are all buying them up."

Liu Bao'er walked to the window and gazed at the rain outside. The abacus-shaped gold hairpin in her hair gleamed warmly in the candlelight, just like her eyes at that moment, calm yet sharp.

"Send word to all branches," she said clearly and decisively as she turned around, "that trading of salt permits be suspended for three days, effective immediately."

"Pause?" Hu Liu was taken aback. "Now is the perfect time to make money!"

"Have someone retrieve last year's rainfall records for Huainan Circuit, as well as the records of natural disasters from the Imperial Observatory for the past three years." She didn't explain, but quickly issued the order, "Also, investigate how many salt permits are currently circulating in the market and who controls them."

When Cui Jiulang arrived after hearing the news, it was already late at night. The second floor of Datong Pawnshop was still brightly lit, and Liu Bao'er had dozens of scrolls of documents spread out in front of her, including government gazettes, merchant caravan records, and price trend charts that she had drawn herself.

"Is Lady Dou trying to find a unique path?" Cui Jiulang glanced at the documents on the table, his phoenix eyes filled with inquiry.

"Jiulang, how long do you think this rain will last?" Liu Bao'er asked instead of answering, pointing her finger at Huainan Road on the map. "It's true that the salt fields were damaged, but to say that Huai salt has been completely ruined is an overstatement."

She unfolded a ledger: "At this time last year, the salt reserves in Yangzhou's salt warehouses were enough to last three months. Even with reduced new salt production, the old salt was sufficient to maintain the market. The current soaring prices are simply due to someone taking advantage of the situation."

Even so, wouldn't it be better to seize the opportunity?

"When the tide comes in, everyone wants to ride the waves," Liu Bao'er said, raising her eyes. "But little do they know who's swimming naked when the tide goes out."

She produced a confidential report: "Seven salt brokerage firms are already buying salt permits at high prices, three of which are using customer deposits. If salt prices fall..."

Cui Jiulang's expression shifted slightly: "You're convinced that salt prices will fall?"

"It's not an assertion, it's a calculation." She pointed to the chart she had drawn. "Based on past patterns, salt prices wouldn't rise for more than a month after such a disaster. But now, only seven days have passed."

The next day, news spread that Datong Shop had suspended salt certificate trading, causing an uproar in the market. Some ridiculed Liu Bao'er for being too cautious and missing a golden opportunity; others secretly watched, wondering what this woman who had created countless miracles was planning this time.

That afternoon, Liu Bao'er was checking the reserves of each branch when she suddenly received news that three money exchange shops in the West Market were experiencing payment difficulties at the same time.

"It's started after all." She shook her head slightly. "The tide hasn't even gone out yet, and some people are already too tired to swim."

She immediately ordered: "From now on, all ticket redemptions at Datong Pawnshop must be processed with priority. Small redemptions, in particular, must be processed without error."

"Boss, aren't you helping those who are trying to squeeze us out?"

"I'm protecting the reputation of Datong Pharmacy," Liu Bao'er said calmly. "I want everyone to know that no matter how strong the storm, Datong Pharmacy's brand will never fall."

What followed unfolded exactly as she had predicted. After ten days of frenzied price increases, salt prices began to fluctuate. As official salt from other salt-producing regions arrived, merchants who had stockpiled high-priced salt certificates started to panic.

That morning, just as Liu Bao'er finished putting on the abacus-shaped gold hairpin, Cui Jiulang brought the latest news: "Salt prices have begun to fall, and those three salt shops... probably won't survive until today."

"The tide never gives a warning when it recedes," she calmly straightened her sleeves. "Have all the branches prepare; we can begin purchasing salt permits in appropriate quantities."

"Now? Prices are still falling."

"It's precisely because prices are falling that it's the right time to buy." She pulled out a list. "Buy as much as you can at this price."

When the three other money shops finally succumbed and went bankrupt, Datong Money Shop's salt certificate reserves had quietly increased by 30%. Even more remarkably, this incident further increased the public's trust in Datong Money Shop—while other shops were unable to redeem their silver, Datong Money Shop remained steadfast.

On a sunny afternoon after the rain, Liu Bao'er stood on the pavilion, gazing at the restored order of the East and West Markets. The gold hairpin in her hair gleamed in the sunlight, just like her clear and resolute mood.

Cui Jiulang appeared behind her unnoticed: "How did Lady Dou calculate this so accurately this time?"

"It's not about accurate prediction, it's about observing the tides." She tilted her head slightly. "The business world is like the tides; every rise has its fall. What we need to do is not chase every wave, but understand the patterns of the tides."

She gently stroked the abacus beads on the gold hairpin: "After all, true wealth always belongs to those who do not lose their way when the tide rises, nor panic when the tide falls."

The crisp, pleasant sound of the abacuses used by the workers settling accounts came from downstairs, just like the clear afternoon after the rain—everything was perfect.