Chapter 279: Build high walls, store up food, and slowly claim the throne

Today, the world's geopolitics is undergoing major changes, and global resource prices are becoming increasingly erratic.

Following yesterday's nonferrous metals riot, problems arose in Australia's alumina supply today, directly causing alumina futures to surge 7%, hitting the daily limit.

Also, a few days ago, riots broke out in French New Caledonia, which had an adverse impact on nickel supply and caused nickel futures prices to soar.

Considering the series of events that have occurred in the Middle East and Africa in recent days, one can’t help but feel that an unspeakable crisis is spreading.

On the 16th, the Prime Minister of Slovakia was assassinated.

On the 19th, Iran's president and foreign minister were killed.

On the 20th, the Democratic Republic of the Congo claimed to have thwarted a coup involving the United States.

In the past, everything that went according to plan seemed no longer cheap, and even a little expensive, in this increasingly chaotic world.

For example, security, services, trade, shipping, etc.

This is reflected in the underlying foundation of global trade - commodities, where supply chains are becoming increasingly fragile and often subject to interruptions and delays due to one reason or another, either man-made or natural.

What is even more worrying is that this year is also the solar flare activity cycle that occurs once every 11 years. In May, ten X-level flares erupted within a week. The huge energy released had a significant impact on the Earth's magnetic field, causing geomagnetic storms.

Many studies on the impact of solar flares on the Earth are unclear, but one thing is certain: almost all the energy we currently use, as well as the plants and animals on which we depend for survival, basically come from the sun.

The activity of the sun does have an indescribable impact on the earth. Sometimes, just a slight change in the climate can have a major impact on the earth's ecology.

To this end, some scholars have written a book called "Sunspot Economics" to study the impact of solar activity on the Earth's economy, from agriculture to industry, and even to commerce and so on.

Therefore, in the next few years, it can be foreseen that all parts of the world will not only have to bear the pressure of high inflation economically, but will also be inevitably affected by the game between major powers geopolitically.

In this era of great change, countless small countries are like duckweed in the sea, unable to control their own destiny. Even the capital of many big countries is looking for a safe haven in this precarious world.

Judging from our country's current policy, it is "build high walls, store up grain, and wait and see to claim the throne."

Looking at the countries surrounding our country, whether it is Korea in the northeast, South Africa in the southeast, India and Myanmar in the south, or Frog Island in the east, they all adhere to a strategy of restraint.

And the involvement in the affairs of the Middle East, Palestine and Israel, Europe, Russia and even Africa is very deep.

Because these problems surrounding our country are mainly Sino-US issues, and to solve the Sino-US issues, we can seek solutions from the Palestinian-Israeli and Russian-Bird issues.

Nowadays, with wars raging around the world, my country, with its stable political situation and steady economy, has become the "Noah's Ark" in the world situation, with many investors coming to invest. This is why large amounts of funds have been pouring into Hong Kong stocks and buying Chinese assets in recent days.

Therefore, the issue of the island in the east is not a problem. The key is to move beyond this issue and resolve the China-US issue.

While I was thinking, the Shanghai Composite Index opened.

Today, the Shanghai Composite Index opened low at 3164.68 points. Stimulated by the positive news of alumina futures hitting the daily limit, aluminum stocks opened higher across the board. However, just a few dozen minutes later, the non-ferrous metal sector fell across the board, alumina futures also hit the daily limit, and China Aluminum opened high and closed low, almost turning green.

Yesterday's strong performance of gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and other non-ferrous metal stocks saw a sharp drop across the board. Hunan Gold, Shandong Gold, Yintai Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huaxin Nonferrous Metals plummeted by more than 4%.

Looking at the prices of non-ferrous metal futures, they are also falling at the same time, and the linkage trend between futures and stocks is strengthening.

Looking at the stock and futures prices, which were soaring like bungee jumps, Old Chen couldn't help but slap his chest and said, "This is too outrageous! Yesterday the price was sky-high, and today it's plummeted to the ground."

"It should be speculative funds that have entered the stock market and futures market in large quantities, causing market fluctuations to increase. This is also the characteristic of non-ferrous metal stocks, with sharp rises and falls, which is also one of the reasons why these stocks are called strong cyclical stocks." Li Feng explained.

"In this market, those with slightly weaker psychological qualities will be eliminated early. They cannot withstand such fluctuations and naturally cannot carry such wealth."

As he spoke, the non-ferrous metals sector was smashed lower and lower, and Lao Chen's face became more and more unnatural.

Losing money is a bad feeling for anyone.

However, since this investment model has been chosen, this investment target must also face the situations that arise in this investment.

Inevitable.

Q&A with stockholders:

"I am standing at the top of the bull market": If that is the case, silicon materials and lithium mines are also at the bottom of the cycle, so what about chips?

Strong cyclical stocks need to look at both the macro trends and industry cycles, as well as supply and demand. I don’t know much about silicon materials, but due to the large-scale development of lithium mines in the past few years, they will enter a large-scale production stage in the next few years. No one can accurately calculate how many mines will be put into production. Moreover, since lithium mining is simple and the cycle is short, it is not scarce on the earth. After a short period of supply and demand mismatch, a large amount of production capacity will soon be supplied. Therefore, now is not a good time to invest, and it is not the bottom of the cycle.

As for chips, I don’t know much about them. I generally stay away from technology stocks because it is generally difficult to measure the future performance of these industries, and there are no past cycles to speculate.

“I’m standing on top of a bull market”: Well, if various wars are started, wouldn’t it be more risky for the stock market to rise?

That depends on where the war is. At that time, the United States was far away from World War I and World War II, made a lot of money, and its economic development was developing by leaps and bounds.

Now, judging from the current situation, our country's policy is to stabilize the surrounding areas and open up copies in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

The Middle East is related to the price of oil, while Africa is related to the prices of many key minerals.

For example, Guinea possesses the world's highest-quality and exceptionally high-grade bauxite, with an annual output exceeding 100 million tons. It is one of my country's major bauxite importers. Furthermore, the country also boasts the world's highest-grade Simandou iron ore mine (expected to be operational in 2025), making it a key tool for my country to break the monopoly of the three major iron ore suppliers.

For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, also known as the Heart of Africa, has 50% of the world's cobalt production and world-class copper veins. The main copper mines of Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are located here. It also has 80% of the world's niobium and tantalum mines, as well as diamond mines, etc.

And Niger, the country that just expelled the US and French troops, has a large amount of uranium mines.

There are also countries such as Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, etc.

Many of these countries are still being softly colonized by Europe and the United States, especially France (using means such as garrisons, CFA francs, etc.), but Wagner entered this region a few years ago, which can be said to be the "second battlefield" outside the Russo-Bird War, "liberated" several countries and has been providing armed "help" in this region, making the situation in this region more serious, or in other words, making Europe and the United States, led by France, more worried.

It is conceivable that the competition in Africa will become more intense in the coming period, and it is very likely that the supply of these commodities will be affected to a certain extent.

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