Chapter 295: Drama, one after another, wonderful

Wednesday, June 12, 2024.

Yesterday's news:

1. Biden's son was found guilty.

Yesterday, Biden's son Hunter Biden was convicted of three felonies including "illegal purchase and possession of firearms" in the U.S. District Court in Delaware. He could be sentenced to up to 25 years in prison, but since it is a first-time offender, he is likely not to go to jail.

During the Dragon Boat Festival, "The American Civil War" was released in China, and back in the United States, the two parties also began a jaw-dropping confrontation.

First, Trump was found guilty, becoming the first former president to be convicted in American history. Now the son of the current president has been found guilty, which is also a landmark event.

The two parties have been attacking each other more and more fiercely for the election. The US presidential election in the second half of this year will be exciting to watch. It will definitely be more exciting than any blockbuster in history, with ups and downs, unexpected events and a long aftertaste.

2. French President Macron dissolved the French National Assembly, and Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right party in France, is leading in the polls.

Previously, whether for the purpose of elections or to demonstrate his independence, French President Macron has advocated "independence" many times in public.

However, in the changing times, it is still not enough. Not only France, but even other countries in the European Union have begun to turn right rapidly, and all policies have begun to become conservative.

This demand is based on the backdrop of Europe's continued bleeding over the years, which has led to an economic downturn and a decline in people's living standards. Therefore, what needs to be solved is to break free from the constraints of the United States economically and politically, and even end the fruitless proxy war.

But, this is too difficult.

It is foreseeable that as Europe turns right as a whole, trade protectionism will also be established. For example, trade barriers will be established against my country in the field of electric vehicles, that is, taxation.

my country is using the establishment of factories in Morocco and Hungary as a "stepping stone" to join the EU, which is bound to lead to further divisions within the EU.

A big drama is also slowly unfolding in Europe.

3. Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel attack each other.

In recent days, the issue of a ceasefire between Palestine and Israel has been very hotly discussed.

I am pessimistic about this. It is not just that the Americans are taking sides, but more importantly, the goals of the various players behind this game have not been achieved.

The big players behind this game, Rabbit and Big Hair, want to continue bleeding the Ugly Country and completely wipe out the Ugly Country's influence from the Middle East. This is consistent with the demands of the Middle Eastern countries.

Therefore, in the context that the United States has not clearly admitted its defeat and withdrawn from the Middle East, there will be other conflicts even if there is no Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

4. The National Commission for Comprehensively Deepening Reform adopted the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics."

This meeting, held before the July meeting, is likely to be a precursor.

Against the backdrop of de-financialization and the abandonment of real estate finance, what my country urgently needs to reform is its fiscal and taxation system, that is, to get rid of the system that has used land rent or land sales as the main source of local tax revenue since the introduction of the tax-sharing system in 1994.

And this will be the new driving force for economic growth in the next ten years or even decades.

This, in turn, raises the question of distribution: where should the state and the people, government and business, and company founders, management, and investors occupy in the distribution system? And how should the modern stock market be reformed?

This requires Chinese wisdom, Chinese solutions, and the establishment of Chinese characteristics, which can be traced back to the meeting held last year on building a financial market with Chinese characteristics.

This requires a major reform that involves almost all aspects and is profound to the bone marrow.

Judging from the limited information currently available, it is very likely that there will be multiple models in the future.

Article 1: Improve the modern capital market.

Just like the new "Nine National Policies", we will strictly control entry and loosen exit, strengthen supervision, attach importance to the rules of the game, protect the interests of investors, utilize the modern capital market, and stimulate and develop the development of innovative industries.

Article 2: Improve modern capital and distribution systems.

Modern corporate management and modern capital markets both come from the West and serve capital.

Under this system, everyone can be a capitalist and everyone is a slave of big capital.

At many moments, with urbanization, and the separation of the original clan-based urban and rural areas, individuals are weak and powerless in the face of big capital. They are simply reduced to blood bags and batteries of capital, becoming another type of walking corpse, with neither thoughts nor souls. Sometimes, even a whole country is reduced to a tool manipulated by capital.

Obviously, this is neither scientific nor reasonable, nor will it last long. It needs to be solved, explained and developed with Chinese wisdom.

Moving forward, we can borrow the ancients’ thoughts on heaven, earth, and man, as well as their simple ethical philosophy, as well as the God of Wealth shares, Wealth shares, and Body shares originating from Shanxi merchants, as well as the structure of Huawei, a world-class company with employee stock ownership, to explore China’s capital model.

Specifically, it means separating the management rights, ownership rights, and operating rights of enterprises to a certain extent, and exploring the reform of employee shareholding in some enterprises, so that the working class, or workers, can enjoy a reasonable position relative to capital in capital distribution.

5. my country's CPI rose by 0.3% year-on-year in May and fell by 0.1% month-on-month. The PPI fell by 1.4% year-on-year and rose by 0.2% month-on-month.

Gentle recovery, I envy the other side so much.

Tonight, the CPI on the other side is going to set off fireworks, let's just watch the show. As for the issue of interest rate cuts, it has become a mystery.

In the past few years, the United States and its minions have raised interest rates to historic highs and collected money from around the world. However, not only has domestic inflation not been suppressed, but several countries abroad have not been hit hard. In fact, many areas have been replaced by various settlement models, especially Russia, which has directly carried out complete de-dollarization transactions.

Now I am holding a large basin of water on my head.

Let's release the water. There is no longer a place as big as before to accommodate it. It would be fine if we don't release it, but once we release it, it will be like a huge flood that will drown us.

Don't add water. This basin of water is so heavy that it will be difficult not only for me but also for domestic companies. If we really go down this path to the end, the end result will be a collapse.

In this dilemma, the Federal Reserve will eventually choose to flood the market with money. After all, printing money is robbing money. As long as someone is still collecting it, I will continue to print money. As for the consequences, that is other people's business, not my family's business.

But if you choose to force yourself to collapse, you will be stabbing yourself in the back. Only you will feel the pain, and it will be impossible to ask others to save you like in 2008.

What is more likely is that when this moment comes, not only will no one save you, but it is very likely that everyone, including their own minions, will step on you and take a few bites of the fallen body of the empire.

Today's market:

Today the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3025.30. The index moved very hesitantly, fluctuating slightly around the midline.

On the market, strong cyclical stocks began to rebound, especially the coal sector, which saw a general rise due to the positive impact of the peak coal consumption in summer.

In addition, aluminum, tin and antimony also started a strong rebound after adjusting for many days. China Aluminum, Tin Industry and Northern Copper rose by more than 2%, Huayu Mining rose by more than 4%, Shanxi Coal International, Lanhua Science and Technology and Shaanxi Coal Industry rose by more than 3%.

Shipping stocks also rebounded in midday trading after falling sharply in early trading.

Everything is normal and healthy.

Shareholders exchange:

1. "Chen Xiaotian": The fire of Moutai in the liquor industry has been started, and it is the logical starting point for killing.

I have been looking forward to it day and night since last year, and the big show is finally here.

Judging from the current situation, it is a foregone conclusion that Kweichow Moutai will shrink its product line with the new leadership. This will definitely affect performance, which in turn will affect valuation, and then stock price, which will in turn affect logic.

Everyone uses real estate and Kweichow Moutai as an analogy. The two have similarities and differences. To a certain extent, they are essentially a financial-driven phenomenon.

At a time when all industries across the country are undergoing de-financialization, it is really not easy for Kweichow Moutai to survive until now. This should be because in the past few years, on the one hand, Kweichow Moutai began to launch various joint-branded products, such as Moutai ice cream, Moutai coffee and other products, to expand profits, and on the other hand, it began to engage in I Moutai direct sales.

Especially the latter, the impact is even more profound.

Previously, the financialization of Moutai was achieved through the stockpiling of goods by manufacturers, major distributors, scalpers, collectors, etc.

Now, with the support of I Moutai, the financial attributes of Kweichow Moutai have been further amplified, and a new financial chain has been formed: the wool party rushes to buy Kweichow Moutai - scalpers - quasi-distributors - e-commerce platforms provide hundreds of billions of subsidies - consumers or scalpers.

Later, it even went further and released small bottles of Moutai with lowered down payment standards and increased leverage ratios.

Now, this Ponzi-like scheme has erupted against the backdrop of the "Huangmao Uprising" with the new leadership taking office.

The current time point is similar to around 2013, when the liquor industry was destocking across the industry due to the "Prohibition of Alcohol", "Restrictions on Three Public Consumptions" and the "Plasticizer Crisis" (you can look back at the situation back then when you have time for the content after Chapter 34 of this book).

A big drama is slowly unfolding in the liquor industry. Let's see where this round of industry destocking will go.

2. “Zhou Zhou Ben Ben”:

Oil futures prices can be negative, so why can't this?

Because when the oil futures price is negative, American capital has harvested a large number of believers, so of course it will count.

However, in this "accident", American capital was fleeced by others, so it naturally does not count.

Three: "Chen Xiaotian": 1. Smart cars are bound to replace fuel-powered vehicles, just like smartphones replaced bricks. 2. The one who will defeat fuel-powered vehicles will definitely not be the established automakers.

The automotive industry is changing rapidly today.

Specifically, for vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan, you must consider smart cars, and Huawei is the only smart car.

For vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan, the cost needs to be considered, and when it comes to cost, only BYD can offer it.

Other companies can only find their own position in the competition between the two strong competitors. Those who cannot find their own position will go bankrupt directly.

As for joint venture cars, they are already the product of the previous era. By the end of next year at the earliest, and the year after next at the latest, fuel vehicles will be swept into the dustbin of history.

In addition, everyone should remember that the automotive industry is a fully competitive industry. You should be cautious when choosing to invest in this industry, and you must not choose to invest in joint venture car companies that are about to end their business.

The reason why I have been analyzing the automotive industry frequently recently is the same as my previous attention to the real estate industry. I am observing the direction of my country's economy from a macro perspective, so as to grasp the future macro trends as much as possible to help with investment.

Nowadays, European and American dramas are showing one after another, and they are all wonderful. While everyone is enjoying the show, they can click on the update prompt and send a free gift to show their love.

Your support is my motivation to update.