Chapter 313: Consumption Downgrade? Troubled Economy?

Monday, July 8, 2024.

Jisi Lu: 3.93, Shanghai Composite Index: 2939 points.

I just saw some shocking data posted by a big V.

According to statistics, from January 1, 2022 to the present, the median decline of the two markets was -33%, among which 1,380 stocks were halved, and only more than 900 stocks were in the green.

Even the Shanghai Composite 50, known for its blue chips, fell by 27.1%, and the CSI 300 fell by 30.8%.

In other words, in the past two years, if you were unlucky, your losses would be around 30%, and if you were very unlucky, your losses would be cut in half.

Faced with this bloody reality, the heartache, self-blame and regret are beyond words, and it is difficult to recover the losses.

Only by stepping outside the market and observing from a broader perspective can we grasp the overall market situation and deeply understand the following during this three-year bear market:

Choice is more important than effort.

If, in the past three years, you have chosen strong cyclical stocks such as kerosene, oil, gold, copper, nonferrous metals, and shipping, you can at least keep your principal, and even make a lot of profit if you are lucky.

However, if you chose real estate, liquor, and consumer stocks in the past three years, then if you are lucky, you will lose 20% to 30%, and if you are unlucky, your investment will be cut in half or even cut in half again.

Men are afraid of choosing the wrong career, and women are afraid of marrying the wrong man.

The investors who suffered losses were not working hard enough.

There are even many stock traders who spend all day and night studying individual stocks and K-line charts...

There are also many stockholders who are constantly paying attention to various information about individual stocks, various insider information, various...

But, in the end, it is difficult to escape the fate of losses.

Because the general trend cannot be violated.

Therefore, when investing in the stock market, we must always maintain a respectful attitude.

You must believe that your success is not due to how smart you are, but because you happened to be standing at the right time, intentionally or unintentionally.

It is the stock market, a mercy or gift to oneself.

Moreover, this mercy and gift bestowed by the fickle market can be taken back at any time.

Therefore, the key to success in investing in the stock market is to find the "trend".

However, there are thousands of so-called "trends" and tens of thousands of so-called "concepts", and the vast majority of them are sweet traps and deadly poisons.

A true “trend” that can be used for gambling must meet three characteristics:

First, the short-term outlook is positive.

Second, mid-term performance is positive and verifiable.

Third, it is long-term, in line with industrial policies and macroeconomic trends.

Recent news:

1. The U.S. election is approaching. Judging from the latest news, if there are no unexpected events, Jianguo’s election is a foregone conclusion.

According to his governing habits, he should shrink the global front, implement the "small courtyard and high wall" strategy, and stay in North America.

Indeed, this is the best way to maximize the preservation of one's own foundation.

However, this clearly goes against the interests of the military-industrial interest groups.

Moreover, it will lead to the decline of the United States' military deterrence capabilities, which in turn will lead to the decline of the US dollar, and then to the decline of the economy.

Furthermore, it will intensify various internal contradictions.

To resolve this irreconcilable contradiction, we must either shift it externally or reform internally.

It is foreseeable that no matter who comes to power, he or she will face a mess and a dilemma.

Among them, the start of the interest rate cut cycle and the decline of the US dollar index have the greatest impact on the domestic and international economic situation.

Requires special attention.

2. According to reports: "Three West African countries, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, announced the establishment of the 'Confederation of Sahel States'."

These three countries were previously French colonies.

Now, with Russia's military intervention, they are all out of France's control.

This is going to wipe out all of France's capital.

It is obvious that in the current international situation, Russia is striking hard militarily and on the Russian-Bird battlefield;

my country is focusing on the economic field, especially in the information technology industry and the automotive field.

The time point for global change is getting closer and closer as time goes by.

3. According to ZJH legislation, the fine for illegal information disclosure can be up to 10 million yuan, and the prison sentence can be up to ten years.

Good thing.

The reason why the stock market has been sluggish in the past few years is that some people are cheating and emptying the wallets of investors in a planned and premeditated manner.

Now, many junk stocks, small and medium-sized stocks, especially those listed in the past two years, have been falling continuously, and they are just paying off their debts.

These days, the Internet is full of pessimistic remarks about the economic recession, soaring unemployment rate, and the need for internal circulation.

In fact, in real life, if you don’t have huge debts, life is very comfortable with the current price level.

Or, to put it another way, money nowadays is not so "hairy" anymore, but very "real".

Or, explain it from another perspective.

That is, most places in the world are in chaos, either fighting fierce wars, or experiencing high inflation and declining living standards.

Relatively speaking, the situation here is pretty good.

Sometimes, I even doubt the various economics books I have read before.

In these works, it is consistently believed that reasonable inflation is conducive to economic growth, while both deflation and severe inflation will harm economic growth.

However, this theory did not work well during the war years.

We all know that the typical characteristics of wartime are soaring prices, scarce resources, high inflation, and people's miserable lives.

Therefore, it is hard not to think that the current overproduction situation in our country is a preparation for future wars.

Using this argument to prove the various consumption downgrade theories that have emerged recently may be more convincing.

After all, we are going to war, so why take medicine or drink alcohol?

Come in and screw the screws and produce the goods.

Today's market:

The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 2939 points and fell again.

On the market, except for gold, copper, kerosene, nonferrous metals and shipbuilding which rose against the trend, liquor and real estate fell again and fell below the previous low.

In addition, in the shipping sector, due to the sharp drop in European futures prices, COSCO SHIPPING, China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Specialized also fell.

There is nothing worth paying attention to on the overall market.

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