Chapter 34 Social Inventory of Liquor

The post is titled: "White wine is dead, burn paper if you have any questions."

The poster's name is "Quit Drinking for the Rest of Your Life", and it seems that he has just registered a small account. The content he posted is very diverse, listing one after another, and it seems very reasonable.

First, technical analysis.

The market rebounded for three months since December 1, with a rise of 25%. However, the liquor sector fell by 25% against the trend. The A-share market, which is the worst hit by the bear market, has accelerated its decline in the past two days. No matter the annual, monthly or weekly lines, they have all been broken. No matter the golden cross, silver cross, red column or green column, they all continue to fall.

The second point is financial analysis.

Starting from the third quarter report, funds began to rush to run away. In the past few months, liquor stocks have fallen against the trend. Whether it is from the market value fluctuations of public funds or private funds, they are actively or passively selling liquor stocks.

This is a typical case of killing more than enough.

There is no capital inflow, only capital outflow, and the bear market for liquor stocks is long and far from over.

The third point is technical analysis.

…………

Half of the investors who replied were crying and complaining, while the other half clicked in to watch the fun and make sarcastic remarks.

Zhao Xinyue came over with a peeled apple, put it on the table, and asked:

"Feng, are you going to post again?"

"Look at the excitement and observe the market," Li Feng said, taking a piece of apple.

"Just like what this post says, the liquor sector is still in a phase of oversupply. Look at how many people have replied, which shows that many people still have illusions about the liquor sector. We have to wait until they are desperate and sell at a loss."

"Desperately cutting off flesh? When will that be? It will take a long time, right?" Zhao Xinyue pondered after taking a bite of the apple.

Li Feng shook his head and said, "No one knows this, but we'll know when the time comes. Maybe there will be a landmark event, maybe the market will break through 2000 points again, or maybe..."

Li Feng looked at the market and pondered.

Zhao Xinyue's heart tightened, and she muttered to herself: "The market has broken through 2000 again..."

She felt that the more she looked at the stock market, the more unpredictable it became, and the more she thought about it, the more profound it became, just like the white clouds in the sky, visible but untouchable.

Boundless and infinitely changing.

Lin Menghan is very efficient in his work.

Two days later, Li Feng took a taxi and headed towards the development zone of City B.

This day was the 23rd day of the lunar year. The streets were decorated with lights and were full of joy. A festive atmosphere was overwhelming.

Looking at the streets full of spring, Li Feng couldn't help but think of his parents far away.

Mom and Dad, are you all right?

"We've arrived at the Golden Garden Building!"

The taxi driver stepped on the brakes and called Li Feng back.

Li Feng paid the fare and got out of the taxi. Looking into the distance, he saw a building dozens of stories high standing in front of him.

There are several ground floor shops under the building. In front of one of the shops, a Jinhan tobacco and liquor store, stands a cold figure.

"Menghan, thank you for your hard work."

Li Feng came forward and said.

Lin Menghan let Li Feng in with a cold face and said, "My dad is in the tea room. Turn right after entering the door."

Tobacco and alcohol have been inseparable since ancient times.

In the specialty store, half of the goods are cigarettes and the other half are alcohol.

Li Feng looked around and saw not only first-tier high-end liquors such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Jiannanchun, but also second-tier liquors such as Luzhou Laojiao, Jiugui Liquor, Fenjiu, and Shuijingfang, and even ordinary liquors such as Lao Cun Zhang, Jiang Xiaobai, and Erguotou.

Judging from the scale, Lin Menghan's business is quite big.

"Hello, Uncle Lin."

Li Feng pushed the door and entered the tea room.

"Oh, Reporter Li, please sit down, please sit down." Lin Yiyun stretched out his right hand and shook hands with Li Feng.

Lin Yiyun is in his fifties. He has a kind temperament, a friendly face, and always has a smile on his face.

It is no small matter that a reporter from City B's Metropolitan Newspaper came to interview me.

Have to handle it carefully.

"Uncle Lin, you're too polite. Just call me Li Feng or Xiao Feng." Li Feng sat down.

Lin Yiyun smiled, took out a cigarette, handed it over, and said, "Have a cigarette."

Li Feng looked at the cigarette, hesitated for a moment, and was about to take it.

Beside him, Lin Menghan snatched it away coldly and said, "Dad, reporter Li is not in good health and can't smoke."

Lin Yiyun was stunned looking at his empty hands.

He glanced at Lin Menghan, and Lin Menghan glared at him.

He looked at Li Feng again, and Li Feng shook his head helplessly.

Lin Yiyun came to his senses and said with a smile, "Okay, okay, let's not smoke today. Let's drink tea. Drinking tea is fine, right? Menghan."

"snort."

Lin Menghan snorted coldly, crushed the cigarette in her hand and threw it into the trash can.

A pool of clear water was poured into the teapot, and Lin Yiyun and Li Feng began to chat.

"Uncle Lin, how is business lately?"

"Well, Xiaofeng, just ask whatever you want to ask. Menghan has told me about the interview. There are no outsiders here." Lin Yiyun said, then turned his head and glanced at Lin Menghan.

Lin Menghan still had a cold face and sat aside.

But his whole body was a little stiff, and he seemed to be inexplicably nervous.

"Well, Uncle Lin, can you tell me about the recent liquor market? Which category is selling well and which category is not selling well?" Li Feng pondered for a moment and continued to ask.

Hearing this, Lin Yiyun's expression became serious and he said:

"The liquor market has been really bad recently, especially for high-end liquor. Sales have plummeted, putting a lot of pressure on our channel inventory. As for low-end liquor, the impact hasn't been as significant, and the situation is pretty much the same as in previous years."

"I heard from Menghan that you want to invest in liquor stocks. I suggest you buy Shunxin Agriculture, Jinzhongzi Liquor, Laobai Gan, and other low-end liquors, or beer or red wine. These liquors have not been affected much recently, and their performance should be okay."

Li Feng shook his head and said:

"Uncle Lin, if you want to buy stocks, you have to buy the leading stocks. If you want to invest in liquor stocks, you naturally have to invest in Kweichow Moutai. I wonder if the wholesale and retail prices of Moutai have dropped recently?"

"Moutai," Lin Yiyun pondered as he steeped the tea leaves in the teapot. "The factory price hasn't changed, it's still 819 yuan. The retail price has dropped slightly, but the inventory backlog in the channel is less than other high-end liquors. If we lower the price a bit, we can sell it."

"What about social inventory?" Li Feng asked.

“Social inventory?”

Lin Yiyun looked at Li Feng in surprise, but he didn't expect that reporter Li even knew the social inventory of Moutai.

Liquor, especially Kweichow Moutai, becomes more fragrant and valuable as it ages.

This has also led to many people in society buying a lot of Moutai and keeping it at home as a financial asset.

Correspondingly, there are many more intermediaries in society who purchase old wines.

"Not much social inventory has flowed into the market yet, and everyone is waiting and watching. Of course, it may also be related to the Spring Festival..." Lin Yiyun pondered.

"Then, what if social inventory flows into the market?" Li Feng asked.

"this……"

Lin Yiyun couldn't answer for a moment.

Because no one knows how much Moutai’s social inventory is.

If it is a small amount, it is still easy to deal with. You can lower the price, suppress it, and delay it, and maybe you can get through it.

However, if social inventory were to flood out, it would be a tragedy of stampede.

Because the ex-factory price of Moutai was only 619 yuan two years ago, and the year before that it was only 499 yuan. Even earlier than that, it was only two or three hundred yuan, or even lower.