Chapter 341 Bull Market Crash

Tuesday, November 12, 2024.

Jisilu temperature: 27.31, Shanghai Composite Index: 3469.89 points.

Bull markets are mostly characterized by sharp declines, while bear markets are mostly characterized by long rises.

After much anticipation, a decent drop finally arrived as expected.

Today, the Shanghai Composite Index opened flat at 3469 points, moved lower, and began to fall after lunch, eventually closing down -1.39%.

On the market, previously strong stocks, such as military industry and semiconductor sectors, fell sharply, while financial insurance and other sectors weakened.

In addition, stocks such as gold, copper, kerosene and nonferrous metals fell across the board.

Really, I didn’t get to eat meat, I just got beaten.

1. Erase your fantasies and face reality.

Last night, U.S. stocks surged, offshore RMB plummeted, and prices of major nonferrous commodities plummeted.

It seems that if the US changes its president, all problems can be solved.

Almost all public opinions at home and abroad are laying the groundwork, expecting, speculating, and looking forward to it.

Trump's coming to power can turn the tide.

However, the decline of a dynasty is like the cycle of the sun and the moon. It is impossible for the appearance of a certain person to change its historical course.

It is impossible for the decline of the United States to be revived by Trump's personal strength alone.

Therefore, please open your eyes, face the reality, and do not blindly follow those who have ulterior motives and yearn for the revival of the United States.

Impossible,

When an empire is on the decline, the more it struggles, the faster it falls.

2. TSMC stops supplying 7nm AI chips, COMAC C909 officially debuts at the air show!

Semiconductors, large aircraft, automobiles, new energy, shipbuilding, home appliances and other industries.

As time goes by, we will all get it.

In fact, our biggest worry nowadays is that our production capacity is too large and others cannot afford it, or even close their doors and refuse to buy it.

There is an urgent need to open the door and allow for a wave of free trade.

At this stage, we are not afraid of war, but we hope to have a small-scale, controllable war to absorb excess production capacity.

However, this opponent, this battlefield, and the expected outcome are not easy to find.

3. Spot gold fell below $2,600, Singapore iron ore futures fell below $100/ton, and LME copper futures fell to $9,275 per ton, hitting a new low since September 16.

Trade protectionism, global recession?

This goes back to the logic we discussed a few months ago.

If there is a global recession,

Then, it will definitely be another global flood of money to hedge against the situation as in March 2020.

After all, every government must first consider the people's livelihood and food issues.

Holding a large amount of nonferrous metal stocks is really too painful. I have endured it for a year, but I didn’t expect that I would have to endure it again.

It seems that I don’t know where the future lies.

However, if we look at the overall market situation, we can feel a little more comforted.

Yesterday, the blogger accidentally saw a piece of data, that is, even after the surge in the index at the end of September,

Of the more than 5,000 stocks in the market, half have seen zero growth this year, with some even plummeting by as much as -30%...

Only about 10% of stocks have risen by more than 50% this year. These are the lucky ones in the market.

In other words, if you did not hold stocks during the wave at the end of September,

So, most of the stock friends this year are still losing money.

The cruelty of the market is evident from this.

Therefore, when we invest, we must be steady and make sure we don’t lose money, so that we can win at every step.

After all, one big loss requires two or three big wins to make up for it.

Opportunities in the market are limited.

The chances of a big victory are even rarer, which requires us to be even more cautious.

4. "Shanghai introduces 13 measures to boost used car exports"

Next year, the domestic auto market will be unprecedentedly cruel.

Basically, fuel vehicles will directly exit the stage of history.

Fuel vehicle dealers and used fuel vehicle dealers will be very, very uncomfortable.

Even, a large number of them went bankrupt.

As a result, no one is interested in the existing or even newly produced fuel vehicles.

This policy is precisely to solve the problem of a large number of used fuel vehicles that no one is interested in.

These vehicles that are too expensive to be scrapped domestically can be directly shipped across the ocean and exported to other countries.

Many third world countries still rely mainly on imported second-hand fuel vehicles.

However, in the past, most of them were Japanese second-hand cars.

Unfortunately, Japanese fuel vehicles not only have to face competition from us in new car sales, but also their used car market is slowly being eroded by us.

This is the power of an industrial giant.

Shareholders exchange:

none.