Chapter 354: Introducing Cycle Thinking into the Investment System

2025-05-23

Outside the window, the rain is drizzling. Rows of Sophora japonica trees are blooming with new buds and growing vigorously, fully demonstrating the hope of spring, the busyness of summer, and the continuation of life.

Birds sing on the branches, fly in the sky, and in their nests, they reproduce the hope for the future and play the music of life.

The insects climbed up the treetops, nibbled on the tender shoots, and became as fat as possible, hoping that they would transform into butterflies in the future and sow the seeds of hope for the next generation.

Everything is so familiar,

Everything is so natural.

Then, it conforms to the cycle of life and the meaning of the four seasons. If the cycle is the same, it will repeat itself over and over again, and it will remain unchanged forever.

"In investment, we also need to introduce cyclical thinking." Li Feng looked out the window and muttered to himself.

"What is cyclical thinking? How can we introduce it?" someone nearby asked.

Eat melon 1: Cyclical thinking in investment.

Li Feng thought about it, sorted out his thoughts carefully, and said:

"We have discussed before that investment should consider three aspects: macro trends, industry trends, and micro enterprises."

"At the same time, we have also discussed the application of cyclical thinking in investment, especially in the non-ferrous metals industry."

"However, we have overlooked the combination of the two, that is, the application of cyclical thinking in the investment system."

"Cyclical thinking should be used in the study of macroeconomic trends, because every country has its own economic cycle. Some economic cycles last three to five years, while others last seven to eight years..."

"Cyclic thinking should also be used in the study of industry trends, because every industry has its own cycle, which can be as short as three to five months, or as long as more than ten years, or even more than twenty years..."

"Cyclic thinking should be applied even more to the study of micro-enterprises, because every enterprise goes through a process of germination, development, growth, maturity, and decline..."

"We must choose to invest in industries with upward trends and select rapidly developing companies during an economic cycle characterized by a macroeconomic upturn. This way, we can maximize our opportunities to reap the benefits of macroeconomic development, the upward trends in our industries, and the rapid growth of our companies..."

Li Feng's brain was spinning rapidly, and he spoke faster and faster.

Nearby, a crowd of onlookers, some listened with frowns, some looked disdainful, and some seemed to understand but not quite.

Li Feng ignored it, because, as the saying goes, "The master leads you to the door, but the practice is up to you."

Many times, no matter how much you say, it is not as good as him walking through it himself.

People will only look back after hitting the wall, and will only shed tears after seeing the coffin.

This is human nature.

Can't change.

After waiting for a moment, Li Feng continued to add:

"This is an ideal investment method. Many times, many targets do not meet this condition. But once we have selected a target that meets the requirements, we must hold on to it firmly and constantly examine its three investment logics to see if there have been any changes and make corresponding adjustments."

Everyone ate this melon with gusto.

Melon 2: Banking sector hits new high

Today, the banking sector hit a new high, which stunned many people.

But I didn't expect that when the market was in a state of confusion, the big elephants began to dance.

"If I had known earlier, I would have bought some bank notes. Look, ICBC rose 52.3% last year and another 5.12% this year. China Construction Bank rose 42.43% last year and another 9.14% this year... Isn't this better than buying other random stocks?" said Lao Zhang, a melon friend.

"Yes, Lao Li, you always say that it is not suitable to buy bank stocks during the interest rate cut cycle, but look, this sector has been rising steadily and well. It's a slap in the face, right?" said Lao Ding, a melon friend, with a smile.

Li Feng smiled helplessly, but he did not expect that the bank's stock price would rise so well.

After thinking for a while, he said:

"Yes, the banking sector has performed very well in recent years. Many people have given reasons for this, such as the high dividends and low PE ratios that attracted a large amount of capital, the massive issuance of index funds that led to the pursuit of large banks, the allocation of insurance funds, and so on and so forth..."

"These are all reasons, but they are not the reasons. We cannot escape the reality that the current domestic macroeconomic situation is still in a cycle of interest rate cuts. Therefore, even if the banking sector continues to rise sharply, it is not a reason for me to buy..."

"I won't fight the macro trend. I believe that my personal strength is not enough to resist this trend. We are insignificant and can only take advantage of the trend and follow it. We don't have the ability to create momentum, and it is impossible for us to have the ability to create momentum..."

When the people who were eating melons heard this, they all started to think about it.

Some agreed, some disagreed, and some ridiculed it.

Li Feng didn't care, smiled and continued drinking tea.

Just after drinking for a while, Lao Zhang, who was watching the market next to him, shouted: "It's rising! It's skyrocketing! It's breaking through!"

The roar was so loud that it alarmed people in the area of ​​dozens of square meters.

Everyone gathered around to take a look, and saw Lao Zhang, staring at Zhinengsai with a red face, muttering to himself, "It's gone up, it's finally gone up. I've been trading it for half a year, and it's finally gone up..."

It's like being possessed by an evil spirit.

The crowd gathered around and started discussing.

Li Feng took a look and did not participate.

Many times, in many things, the result is already decided at the moment of purchase. All that is needed is to wait and make corrections along the way.