Chapter 1465: The Economic Miracle of 1928
In early 1928, well-informed and careful people could notice a very interesting phenomenon in the international community: both the Soviet Union and the Ottoman Empire were stepping up the formulation of their own economic "Five-Year Plans."
In this way, there are three countries in the world, all of which are major powers, that are carrying out or preparing planned development of their own economies in the economic field.
These three countries are East Africa, which has been implemented for many years, the Soviet Union, which has been preparing for a long time, and the Kemal government of the Ottoman Empire, which has just completed a coup and is ready to show its prowess.
Moreover, these three countries are very representative. The Soviet Union is at high latitudes, the Ottoman Empire is at middle latitudes, and East Africa is at low latitudes. The climate and environment impressions of the three countries can be described as three extremes among many countries in the world: the Soviet Union is "cold", the Ottoman Empire is "dry", and East Africa is "hot".
Of course, in reality, the climate and environmental characteristics of these three countries are quite complex. For example, the Soviet Union also has warm areas, the northern part of the Ottoman Empire has a lot of precipitation, East Africa also has rainforests and deserts, and the inland is relatively cool.
The economic development levels of these three countries are also very different. In the eyes of the international community, East Africa is already a fairly developed industrial power, the Soviet Union is a semi-industrial country, and the Ottoman Empire as a whole is still a backward agricultural country.
In terms of politics, population, cities, culture, society and so on, the national conditions of the three countries are even more different.
Three very different major countries have coincidentally chosen the same form of economic development model. When the five-year plans of the Soviet Union and the Ottoman Empire are fully implemented, it will surprise the whole world.
The reason why Kemal's government made this choice was obviously influenced by East Africa.
In the past, Turkey began to implement its first five-year plan in 1934, but this plan was not implemented during Kemal's tenure. At the same time, its five-year plan was mainly to learn from the Soviet Union. At that time, the Soviet Union was developing in full swing, and the capitalist world was in a serious crisis. Coupled with the historical entanglement between the Ottoman Empire and Russia, it was not surprising to learn from the Soviet Union, its "old rival".
As for Kemal himself, one thing is certain, that is, he advocated the implementation of nationalist policies in the economic field and strengthened state intervention in the economy.
However, the economic policies implemented by Kemal in his previous life were not systematized and were rather scattered.
Now, Kemal had just come to power and he was preparing the Ottoman Empire’s “Five-Year Plan”. Obviously, there was only one example, East Africa, because the Soviet Union’s Five-Year Plan had not yet been implemented and there was no reference to make.
East Africa had a profound influence on the Ottoman Empire, especially in this century, as exchanges, trade and cooperation between the two countries became increasingly frequent. Therefore, it was no exception for the Kemal government to draw on the East African economic development model.
Of course, to be more precise, the development of East Africa confirms Kemal’s own economic development philosophy, especially the role of the state in economic development.
In Istanbul Govt.
Kemal explained his economic policies and ideas to his confidants.
"After the capital is moved, the empire's economic reforms will be implemented immediately. In the field of agriculture, we will abolish the original feudal land system of the Ottoman Empire, redistribute the land, introduce advanced agricultural technology, and establish a number of large state-owned farms and cooperatives as a demonstration of agricultural reform."
“On the issue of land distribution, I know it is an extremely risky move, but we have to do it because if we don’t take the initiative to do these things, the future of the Ottoman Empire will not change.”
"Since modern times, the empire's territory has been encroached upon by imperialist countries. Therefore, if we do not promote social progress, the Ottoman Empire will only be a lamb to be slaughtered on the imperialist dinner plate in the future."
“At the same time, only by achieving fair distribution of land can the enthusiasm of farmers for production be mobilized. Before the empire achieved industrialization, agriculture was the empire’s most important source of income and was also related to social stability.”
Here Kemal emphasized the issues of agriculture and taxation. In fact, his agricultural reform was also an opportunity to reshape the country's financial situation.
In the past, one of the major reasons for the decline of the Ottoman Empire as a feudal empire was the collapse of its financial system. The wealth was intercepted by the middle class, while both the country and the lower-class people were not rich.
Take the current Kemal government for example. Because Kemal’s military coup failed to achieve the redistribution of social wealth in the Ottoman Empire, the Ottoman Empire’s treasury is still in a deficit situation.
Without money, Kemal's ideas, especially the funding for the country's industrial development, could not be guaranteed.
Kemal was extremely opposed to foreign capital's economic control over the Ottoman Empire.
Therefore, Kemal had only one way to go, which was to redistribute his country's economy through economic reforms and let the money in the hands of the rich in the Ottoman Empire flow.
At this point, Kemal already had two targets: one was his "good friend" Arabs, and the other was other opponents, especially other ethnic separatists within the empire.
In the Ottoman Empire, an Arab country, the social wealth controlled by religious forces was the most astonishing.
Take land for example. The land of the Ottoman Empire was controlled by two major groups: landlords and religious people. Kemal was not willing to touch the former, but he was ruthless to the latter.
Therefore, Kemal said: "Arabism should concentrate on studying religious knowledge instead of focusing on business operations. Therefore, in the future, the land in the hands of religions should be nationalized and then distributed by the state."
"At the same time, we will abolish the tithe and other miscellaneous taxes to reduce the burden on farmers and encourage them to be more active in agricultural operations."
"In addition, in subsequent agricultural reforms, especially in the south and east, they are also key areas of focus for our land reform."
Kemal had anticipated the resistance that would be encountered if land reform was implemented in these areas, but he was also planning to use a trap to enforce the law. As long as a rebellion occurred, he could send the army into the area to eliminate the rebels and then seize the land of local tribes and local forces.
In summary, the only interests protected in Kemal's agricultural reforms were those of the Turkish landlord class, because this was the force he had to win over. As for religious, local and ethnic separatist forces, they were his chosen wallets.
After all, Kemal could not offend everyone, and he also needed political allies. Therefore, not only would he not attack the Turkish landlords, but he would also give them some appropriate support to ensure that the country would not be further divided or even disintegrated due to overly drastic reforms.
After selecting the fixed victims in the distribution issue, Kemal said: "Then in the field of agricultural development, the first thing is to introduce Western technology, including agricultural planting technology, the use of pesticides and fertilizers, the purchase of agricultural machinery, etc."
"As for the purchase of agricultural machinery, it is obviously difficult for individual farmers to afford it independently, so it is necessary to build state-owned farms and cooperatives."
"In the future, the state will fund the purchase of tractors, harvesters and other large agricultural machinery to increase the empire's grain production and promote agricultural progress."
"These are basically my views on agricultural reform, and we can sort them out and supplement them later."
"Here are some of my ideas on how to develop Ottoman industry."
"As we all know, this is an industrial age. Without a strong industry, we are doomed to be at a disadvantage in international competition."
"The Ottoman Empire tried to develop its industry in the past, but it had little success, so we have to try new approaches."
"Through my research on today's developing countries, I have come to the conclusion that if developing countries want to develop industry, the government must play a leading role, unless they have excellent conditions like the United States."
"But the United States is obviously just an exception. The United States itself has the best land and abundant resources in the world. Moreover, since its establishment, it has never been poor and has a rich family background. Therefore, the United States is not a pure latecomer country. It was already very powerful in the last century."
"Other countries, including Germany, East Africa, Japan and Italy, have seen governments play a significant role in their economic development."
"Except for East Africa, all of these countries have their own shortcomings. For example, Italy and Japan do not have rich resources or vast land, but they have also achieved considerable results in economic development over the years."
“Therefore, I believe that in the process of industrial development in Ottoman Empire, the government should have the courage to take up its own responsibilities and take the lead in the development of national industry.”
In recent times, Italy's industry has indeed developed rapidly. Under the policies of the strongman Benito, although there are many problems, Italy's industry has indeed developed faster than before.
This is also the reason why Kemal also used Italy as one of the typical cases.
Kemal went on to say: "In terms of industrial development, we should build a number of state-owned enterprises with state funding and take back some important industries controlled by foreign capital. At the same time, considering the funding issue, we should give priority to the development of light industry."
This involves the issue of nationalization. Like Tsarist Russia before it, a large portion of the Ottoman Empire's industries were controlled by foreign capital, which Kemal could not tolerate, so he would gradually take back some important industries and bring them under government control.
“At the same time, we will raise tariffs, protect the development of our own industries, replace imported industrial products, and reduce external dependence.”
Raising tariffs to protect the development of domestic industries is a very common practice. As for the latter, import substitution is a common practice in many industrially underdeveloped regions. For example, some South American countries also have similar practices.
"Strengthening transportation and logistics construction, especially railways and roads, will reduce the cost of industrial development and also play a role in consolidating the stability of the national regime."
"In the future, the country's land transportation construction will be centered on the new capital Ankara to strengthen control over the Mesopotamian Basin, the Caucasus, and the Levant."
Many of Kemal's policies were related to the issue of moving the capital, which not only helped him reshape the country's political and economic systems, but also helped him strengthen his control over regions with strong separatist tendencies such as the Fertile Crescent.
This is similar to when East Africa moved its capital to the Rhine and the Soviet Union moved its capital to Moscow. One of the key points of moving the capital of East Africa to the Rhine was to strengthen control over the west, the inland, and even the entire country, while the Soviet Union considered it more from a security perspective.
However, moving the capital to Moscow can obviously strengthen the Soviet government's control over the national situation. Although St. Petersburg has excellent conditions, it is indeed too remote in the territory of Tsarist Russia. Although Moscow is not geographically close to the center, the area it can radiate is much larger than St. Petersburg.
Overall, there are more similarities between the Ottoman Empire's relocation of its capital to Ankara and the Soviet Union's relocation of its capital to Moscow. After all, they both took into account the problem of old forces restricting their own country's development, and the new capital was more conducive to the implementation of some of their reforms and national governance work.
When East Africa moved its capital, there was no issue of considering the old forces, because the Ottoman Empire and the Soviet Union were equivalent to "changes of dynasties", and the government remained unchanged before and after the relocation of the capital in East Africa, it just moved its office location.
At the same time, the security of the original capitals of the Soviet Union and the Ottoman Empire was indeed too poor. Both St. Petersburg and Istanbul were vulnerable to maritime threats. In comparison, the original capital of East Africa, the first town, was not far from the coastline, but it had Bagamoyo and Dar es Salaam as barriers.
Not to mention that there are no powerful countries around East Africa that can threaten its security, and St. Petersburg and Istanbul are not too far away from other countries.
Istanbul, in particular, is almost no different from the front line. Once a war breaks out, it will be easily threatened by both sea and land, and even be besieged by Greek and Bulgarian troops. At this time, the Ottoman Empire has no time to mobilize the national military to support Istanbul.
Therefore, the relocation of the capital can be said to be an important fulcrum of Kemal's reforms, and many important policies can only be thoroughly implemented after the formal relocation of the capital.
If they continue to stay in Istanbul, Kemal's government will probably not be able to sleep well, as they will face pressure from internal and external forces, and even assassination and rebellion.
…
1928 was destined to be an unforgettable year, especially the great changes in the Ottoman Empire and the Soviet Union. The reforms in these two countries not only had a huge impact on their own countries, but also had a profound impact on the future changes in the world pattern.
In that year, the Soviet Union and the Ottoman Empire promoted the implementation of the Five-Year Plan. Coupled with the precedent of East Africa and the outstanding performance of the three countries in the 1929 world economic crisis, the planned economy also influenced the future economic development decisions of many countries.
Three completely different countries, a monarchy, a capitalist system, and a Labour regime, just like the convergent evolution of the biological world, all chose the "Five-Year Plan" form, which lasted for three days. This can be regarded as a great spectacle of world economic development in 1928.
The Soviet Union, the Ottoman Empire and the three East African countries, from Eastern Europe to the Middle East and then to the African continent, formed a northeast-southwest oblique axis on the map, dividing the entire world.
(End of this chapter)
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