Chapter 1473 Warning
After so many years of development, the prosperity of the Austro-Hungarian Empire remained as strong as ever and it continued to sit firmly among the top five powers in Europe. In terms of its economic situation, it was not much inferior to that of France.
Today's five major European powers are Britain, France, Germany, Austria and the Soviet Union. Britain and Germany have their own strengths and belong to the first tier of European powers, while France, Austria-Hungary and the Soviet Union belong to the second tier.
The three countries in the second tier each have their own shortcomings. France’s main problems are population and resources, the Austro-Hungarian Empire’s problem is ethnicity, and the Soviet Union’s problem is economy and industry. This is also the main reason why they cannot stand on an equal footing with Britain and Germany.
The three countries are all trying their best to address their own shortcomings, but it is difficult to change in a short period of time. At present, Ernst is only optimistic about the Soviet Union. To some extent, the Soviet Union’s problems are also the easiest to solve.
Vienna, Central Station.
A train pulled by a diesel locomotive slowly entered the station and stopped in front of the platform. The platform was cleared of all the idlers, and only guards and high-ranking officials of the Austro-Hungarian Empire were waiting there.
The door of a carriage was slowly opened. After a while, Ernst came down from the door and stepped on the carpet that had been laid in advance.
Many people looked at the Emperor of the Rhine Empire with curiosity. Ernst was not arrogant. If it were not for the solemn occasion and the clothes he was wearing, he would be no different from an ordinary old man in the crowd.
However, this plain-looking old man is the ruler of a country with a population of over 100 million. Not only does East Africa have an astonishing population, but it is also not inferior to any country in the world in terms of industry, technology, education, etc. It is far from being comparable to ordinary powerful countries. Therefore, no one dares to ignore this ordinary-looking old man.
"Rudolf, my condolences!" After getting off the train, Ernst saw Crown Prince Rudolf and greeted him.
Crown Prince Rudolf was not in a very good mental state. The death of Emperor Franz was a big blow to him. It was hard to imagine that when he was young, Emperor Franz was the person Rudolf disliked the most.
The rebellious eaglet always wants to break free from his father's control, but when the person who has protected him from the wind and rain leaves him forever, it is too late for the eaglet to regret.
"Brother-in-law, thank you for coming to my father's funeral." Rudolf said with red eyes.
This is the truth, because everyone knows that the Rhine royal family rarely moves. It is not difficult for nobles on the European continent to visit them, but the distance between East Africa and Europe means that the Rhine royal family cannot travel frequently in Europe.
Especially in the era of Constantine and Ernst, the population of the Rhine royal family was not large. In recent years, as Ernst's grandchildren grew up, the Rhine royal family's travel abroad has become slightly more frequent.
Now, it is particularly precious for Ernst, the emperor of the empire, to personally go to the Austro-Hungarian Empire to attend the funeral of Emperor Franz.
Ernst came this time not only to represent the royal family, but also to represent his father-in-law, Archduke Ferdinand's family. He said to Rudolf: "Your uncle is too old and cannot stand the torment, so he cannot go to Vienna in person to attend your brother's funeral. He was also very sad to hear the news of His Majesty Franz's death."
Rudolf nodded and said, "My uncle is not much younger than my father. It would be best if he could stay in East Africa. He is really not suitable for long-distance drifting on the sea..."
After a brief chat about family matters, the two of them headed towards the funeral venue under the protection of the guards.
…
When Ernst was far away in Vienna.
East Africa also started national statistics in 1929. At this time, there were less than two years left before the end of the "Sixth Five-Year Plan" in East Africa, so 1929 was a "big year" for statistics. This round of data statistics was more thorough and rigorous than that of ordinary years.
In addition to various industrial data, one of the most eye-catching topics in 1929 was the population statistics of East Africa. Every ten years, East Africa conducts a national census to provide reference data for the subsequent national development.
This time, the national statistical work was personally supervised and participated in by Crown Prince Friedrich.
"This census will not only involve the mainland, but also some colonies. We will conduct population census in order to determine the current development status of the colonies," Friedrich told government officials.
In previous years, East Africa did not pay much attention to the colonial population. Before, the colonial population in East Africa was too small, so it seemed insignificant. However, after years of development, the population of some colonies has grown rapidly, and it has reached a level that must be taken seriously.
In particular, some of East Africa's colonies in the South Pacific region have already formed a considerable market scale after two or three decades of operation in East Africa.
The East African government was not completely ignorant of the colonial population data, but in previous years, these data were reported by the colonial governments and their authenticity needed to be examined. This time, the East African central government personally sent people to the colonies to implement the population statistics work.
This will provide us with a detailed picture of the population development of the entire empire. The population also represents East Africa's current position in the world. No matter how a country develops, the more populous a country is, the more attention it will obviously receive.
Just as many people know that the Far Eastern Empire is the world's most populous country and India is the world's second most populous country, there is no suspense about these two countries, but the world's third most populous country is not necessarily the case.
There are currently two competitors for the third most populous country in the world, first East Africa and then the Soviet Union.
Although East Africa had become the world's third most populous country ten years ago, the population growth in the Soviet Union was in an abnormal state due to civil war and other reasons at that time, so there was still a lot of suspense between the two countries. If the Soviet Union could maintain the population growth rate of the imperial era, it might not be impossible to overtake East Africa.
As for the United States, which also has a population of over 100 million, the population gap between it and East Africa was more than 50 million ten years ago. So ten years later, unless the United States recruits immigrants on a large scale, it will be impossible for it to surpass East Africa.
For an industrial country with a vast territory like East Africa, population means more wealth, especially for the development of colonies, which urgently requires a large population.
Dong Yu, director of the East African National Bureau of Statistics, said to Crown Prince Friedrich: "Based on the data from previous years, we can estimate that the current population of the empire should be close to 200 million. If the colonies are included, it may directly exceed 200 million."
"This also means that the Empire is most likely to become the third country in the world to have a population exceeding 200 million."
"Our country's land area is about the same size as Europe, and Europe's population may exceed 500 million. So from the perspective of population density, the population of East Africa is far from reaching its limit."
The population growth rate in Europe must be fast, especially in countries like Austria-Hungary and the Soviet Union, which have a low level of industrialization but are developing rapidly. Their populations are in a stage of rapid growth. In addition, the situation is similar in other countries in Central and Eastern Europe and Southern Europe, such as Italy, the Balkans and other regions.
Of course, the environment of East Africa is different from that of Europe, so the upper limit of the population that Europe can support is greater than that of East Africa. However, in the past few decades, East Africa has been carrying out large-scale transformation of its living environment. In addition, East Africa is several million square kilometers larger than Europe. Therefore, even if some particularly bad lands are excluded, the population that East Africa can theoretically support should not be underestimated.
Without considering East Africa's large-scale transformation of its own environment, based on the situation of African countries in the previous life, the East African region would have no problem feeding a population of 400 million. The population of Congo alone was over 100 million in the previous life, not to mention East Africa, South Africa, Central Africa, the Ethiopian Plateau and other regions.
Friedrich said: "Based on the current situation, the ideal population of the empire is 300 million. This can ensure the effective use and development of the empire's land, promote a positive economic cycle, and avoid excessive damage to the ecology."
"However, the total population of our colonies is relatively small. In the future, the transfer of population from the mainland to the colonies will be an important direction for stabilizing the empire's control and influence over the colonies."
The East African government has been trying to transfer population from the mainland to the colonial areas, but the effect has not been good. After all, the living conditions in the mainland of East Africa are far from comparable to those in the colonies, and the economic situation in East Africa has been good in recent years, so there are obviously very few citizens willing to go to the colonies to develop.
Among the world's colonial powers, it was Britain that exported a relatively large number of people to its colonies. For example, Australia's population was only three million around 1900 at the beginning of this century, but by 1929 it had exceeded six million.
British immigrants account for a high proportion of the newly added population, which is also related to Australia’s relatively exclusive immigration policy. Otherwise, immigrants from the Far East and Southeast Asia alone would be enough to overwhelm Australia’s immigration department.
Even so, according to Australia's current population growth rate, it will be no problem to exceed 10 million in a few decades. Britain has more than one colony in Australia, including Canada, New Zealand, India, South Africa...
This does not take into account the immigration data from the UK to the United States and other countries, so the UK's ability to export population abroad is actually very strong.
Among them, frequent economic crises from the late 19th century to the early 20th century played a huge role, and the colonies became a reservoir of unemployed people in Britain. On the contrary, East Africa avoided many economic crises, resulting in a relatively rare large-scale outflow of local population.
However, East Africa may not be without opportunities in the future. If the world economic crisis in 1929 is as fierce as in the previous life, basically few countries can escape the disaster.
Especially now that the East African economy has been completely integrated with the world, there is no possibility of escaping the crisis unless it decouples from the world's mainstream economies like the Soviet Union.
Of course, before the outbreak of the global economic crisis, the future prospects of various countries are still unclear. Only after the economic crisis breaks out completely can we know the specific situation of countries around the world.
Take Germany for example. In the past, Germany was the biggest victim of the economic crisis. On the one hand, it had to repay debts that were impossible to repay, and on the other hand, it had to withstand the pressure of the economic crisis. If Adolf had not come to power, Germany might have exploded prematurely.
However, in this time and space, Germany is not a defeated country, which is bound to change the German government's ability to cope with the economic crisis.
There is also the Austro-Hungarian Empire, a country that disappeared long ago but still exists today. It is also difficult to predict how the Austro-Hungarian Empire will respond to the economic crisis.
…
Vienna.
Ernst was giving Rudolf a reminder.
"Rudolf, according to the predictions of our East African economic experts, a new round of economic crisis is likely to break out in the next few years."
"Now, you are about to become the actual controller of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. If you encounter this economic crisis, it will definitely not be a good thing for the Habsburg rule."
"From the end of World War I to now, the world economy has been booming, but this situation is obviously unhealthy."
"The global market is so small, but the industries of various countries are developing by leaps and bounds, and we industrial countries are constantly plundering wealth from those backward countries, which also means that their consumption level and ability are greatly weakened."
"In short, the world's industrial production and consumer markets are extremely mismatched today, which means that the global economic order is at risk of collapse at any time."
"Moreover, I predict that the destructiveness of this economic crisis will exceed everyone's imagination, so you should make some preparations in advance. After all, you have just come to power. If you encounter an economic crisis again, it will be extremely disadvantageous to you."
Ernst did not want the Habsburg rule in the Austro-Hungarian Empire to fall. To some extent, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was an important fulcrum of East Africa's European strategy, which was related to East Africa's interests and influence in Europe.
At the same time, as one of the spokespersons for the monarchy, Ernst did not want the number of European monarchs to decrease further.
Rudolf also expressed his concerns about what Ernst said, and he did not doubt the authenticity of Ernst's "prediction" at all.
After all, the leaders of various countries are well aware of the principles of economic crisis, and everyone is aware of the "unhealthy" development of the world market today, but governments are like gamblers and have to continue to follow up.
Take the development of the industrial sector for example. Industry represents national strength, especially in places like Europe where many countries are located. If the industry lags behind, it will inevitably be at a disadvantage in the competition. Therefore, most countries choose to ignore the overcapacity in the industry. At most, they will fight a war. In this way, market problems will naturally be solved and the winner will take all.
As for who will be the winner, countries with strong industrial capabilities will naturally have a greater chance of winning, so governments can only bite the bullet and develop industries.
Rudolf asked Ernst, "Brother-in-law, do you have any good suggestions?"
Rudolf still trusted Ernst. Moreover, East Africa had developed from a colony to its current level. Even if Ernst was an idiot, no one would doubt his ability.
Ernst said: "If I were to make a suggestion, it would be that the government should play a leading role during this economic outbreak, especially in a country like Austria-Hungary, where the national conditions are relatively complicated. If the economy is allowed to deteriorate, it will inevitably trigger a new round of political crisis."
"So, you must then ensure that your country's industry does not suffer a systemic collapse under the impact of the economic crisis and survive the most difficult period."
"It might even be helpful to refer to some of the Soviet Union's economic policies. After all, when it comes to state intervention in the economy, no country has done it more thoroughly than the Soviet Union."
"Of course, I have to say this in advance. If you learn from the Soviet Union, it will inevitably cause dissatisfaction among some vested interest groups. This may lead to turmoil within the Austro-Hungarian Empire, or even the risk of disintegration. You must be cautious in every step you take. "
(End of this chapter)
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