Chapter 1587 Spain and the Ottomans
As mentioned before, an important reason why Italy appears to be doing better economically than Japan is that Italy is a European country.
The lower limits of Europe, northern North America and southern Africa are higher than other parts of the world. Europe is almost entirely developed. Even in the Balkan Peninsula and the Iberian Peninsula, which have relatively poor economic foundations, the quality of life of the people is better than that of most colonies and backward countries and regions.
In northern North America, the economic quality of the United States and Canada is no worse than that of Europe. In recent times, because Roosevelt actively promoted the good-neighbor policy after taking office, Mexico and Cuba have also had a relatively better time.
East Africa basically dominates southern Africa, raising the lower limit of the entire region.
As a new European power, Italy's economic bottom line is stronger than most regions and countries outside the region, which is not surprising at all.
But when it comes to Europe, Italy is far behind. The Austro-Hungarian Empire was a traditional European power. Its wealth, technological accumulation, talent pool, and industrial completeness were only better than Italy's.
Therefore, regaining Eastern Lombardy and Venice is of great significance to Italy, and can directly help Italy avoid some detours in industrial development.
Ernst analyzed, "With the merger of Germany and Austria and the unification of Italy, the world situation is moving ever closer to the edge of a dangerous abyss."
"The embryonic form of a global political and military bloc with Germany at its core is rapidly taking shape in the world, and could directly shake the peace and stability of the world order."
"This world political and military bloc has been greatly strengthened based on the original Allied Powers of World War I."
Crown Prince Friedrich understood Ernst's meaning and responded, "During World War I, the main forces of the Allies were Germany and Austria-Hungary. However, due to internal politics and the dispersion of power in Austria-Hungary, it was unable to unleash its potential."
"And Germany can do this. After annexing Austria-Hungary, Germany will only be more powerful than the alliance between Germany and Austria-Hungary during World War I."
"In addition, Germany is now developing closer relations with Italy and Japan. It is possible that these three powers will form a military alliance in the future."
"This is not all the power Germany can use. Spain and the Ottoman Empire, two declining powers, may also completely surrender to this new political and military group."
Spain’s current problems are very serious, but it is undeniable that Spain is a force within Europe that cannot be ignored. Several European powers, including Britain, France, Germany, Italy and the Soviet Union, are trying to pull Spain into their side.
In particular, Germany, Italy and the Soviet Union were particularly concerned about Spain.
Now Germany and Italy seem to be in the same group on the issue of Spain. They both support the Nationalists headed by Franco, while the Soviet Union supports the Republicans.
The struggle between the Nationalists and the Republicans cannot be simply seen as a struggle between extreme nationalist forces and Labour forces. There are both good and bad people within the two major factions.
For example, the Falange in the National Party is a typical extreme nationalist party and a major investment target for Germany and Italy. Then there are the rebels, which can represent part of the Spanish military forces, whose main force is the Spanish African Legion, which is the Moroccan colonial force mentioned earlier.
Then there are the royalists within the Nationalists, and the royalists are divided into the Carlists and supporters of Alfonso XIII.
Finally, there are the Catholic forces, as well as landlords, bankers, industrial capitalists, etc.
The situation is similar for the Republicans, with the bourgeois Republican Party and the Republican Union, whose supporters are mainly Spanish liberals and republicans.
Then there are the various labor factions, including the Workers' Party, the Soviet-style Labor Party, and the Workers' Union. There are also divisions within these factions, such as moderates and radicals.
Finally, there are the anarchists and local separatist forces.
With so many forces above, anyone in Spain would feel a headache.
Crown Prince Friedrich said in a joking tone: "Now Spain can be said to have become an expo of world politics and ideas. You can find all kinds of political parties and organizations in Spain."
"The ideological divisions and factions within Spain are enough to make anyone's scalp tingle. If these divisions are not resolved, Spain will be a hopeless country."
"Spain's continued decline over the years is inseparable from its extremely poor political ecological environment."
The internal strife in Spain has a long history, and it can even be said that it started hundreds of years ago. However, the situation has become more chaotic now, and all kinds of monsters have emerged.
Ernst said: "The final outcome of this internal struggle is likely to be the victory of the Nationalists. On the one hand, the Nationalists are more united than the Republicans. On the other hand, Germany and Italy can more easily influence Spain. Although the Soviet Union wants to intervene in Spain, it is too far away from Spain."
"As for Britain and France, their attitudes were too negative. Even without the Soviet Union, the Nationalists would have had a better chance of winning in the end."
The reason why Britain and France have a negative attitude towards Spain’s internal political struggle can be seen from the current composition of the Republican Party.
There is no doubt that the democratic republicans are more ideologically inclined towards Britain and France, but now the democratic system of the entire capitalist world has reached a bottleneck, and both Britain and France have been affected. Due to the differences in domestic political forces, they are determined to support the bourgeois democratic forces in Spain.
Of course, the rise of the Labour Party within the Republican faction is what Britain and France fear the most. If they support the Republicans now and the Labour Party ends up reaping the benefits, it is obviously unacceptable to Britain and France.
Therefore, it is better to "choose the lesser of two evils" and let the Nationalists supported by Germany and Italy win in the end.
As for the Nationalists, although there is also a mix of good and bad elements, these forces have relatively more common interests because they all have things in common, such as extreme conservatism and advocacy of or acceptance of authoritarian rule.
At the same time, the Nationalists also had a political figure they could all accept, namely Franco. He came from a military background and was naturally the spokesperson for military interests. He was able to accept extreme nationalist ideas, but at the same time he was a supporter of the monarchy, conservative in his thinking, and supported Catholic traditions.
As for the republicans, the contradictions between the bourgeoisie and the Labour Party are impossible to reconcile, not to mention that there are two completely contradictory political forces, those supporting the maintenance of unity and those supporting local division, which are impossible to achieve compatibility.
Therefore, Ernst said: "No matter how the situation in Spain develops, the Nationalists will inevitably win in the end, and after the Nationalists win, Spain will inevitably become the third country in Europe where an extreme nationalist party is in power."
"Franco is likely to become the new ruler of this country. However, Franco is a complicated person. It is hard to say whether he will stand firmly on the side of Germany. However, if it comes to dealing with the Soviet Union, he will definitely have a lot in common with Germany and Italy."
"And the Soviet Union is the only country capable of preventing Germany from conquering Europe. If Spain falls to Germany, it will undoubtedly be a huge blow to the Soviet Union."
Without considering the interference of forces outside Europe, the Soviet Union can be said to be the only country in Europe capable of competing with Germany. As for Britain and France, they cannot do it on their own, even if the two countries work together for warmth.
After all, during World War I, it was difficult for Britain and France to be a match for Germany when they joined forces. In the end, it was the United States that intervened to help the two countries stabilize the situation.
In the next few years, after digesting the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Germany will only become stronger.
Of course, if Germany declared war on the Soviet Union first, Ernst could have anticipated some of the outcomes. For example, when both Germany and the Soviet Union were defeated, Britain and France would inevitably pin the severely injured Germany down again.
Crown Prince Friedrich nodded and said, "If Spain joins the German camp, Europe will want to stop Germany. I can't think of any way to break the deadlock except for us and the United States to intervene."
"Not to mention, there is also the Ottoman Empire, which is also a potential ally of Germany."
The Ottoman Empire was comparable to Spain in strength, and although its industry lagged behind Spain, it was politically stable and highly centralized.
In 1934, the populations of the Ottoman Empire and Spain were both over 20 million, with no significant population gap.
Economically, both Spain and the Ottoman Empire relied heavily on agriculture. However, Spain at least had a certain industrial base, but the Ottoman Empire made faster industrial progress, thanks to the current political stability of the Ottoman Empire and the implementation of economic development policies.
In the military field, the Ottoman Empire and Spain also have their own strengths and weaknesses. Although Spain has stronger overall military strength, its organization is loose, while the Ottoman Empire's military strength is slightly weaker, but its organization is strong and it is accelerating modernization.
Ernst said: "Spain has more capital than the Ottoman Empire, but the Ottoman Empire has now bottomed out and Spain is still in decline. Only after the internal pie is redistributed in Spain, may it be possible to return to being a European power."
Now, Spain can only be considered a European power, not a great power like Italy. This is the result of factors such as Spain's area, population, resources and geography.
In Europe, Spain ranks fourth in area, after the Soviet Union, Germany and France. In fact, the area of Spain is not much different from that of France, both of which are around 500,000 square kilometers. After all, in this time and space, France still did not recover Alsace and Lorraine after World War I.
Of course, the land quality in France is obviously not comparable to that in Spain. The climate in many parts of Spain is similar to that in North Africa and is extremely dry, so the arable land is actually not as abundant as imagined.
This also leads to Spain's population being clearly mismatched with its land area, even far lower than that of the United Kingdom, Italy and Poland, all of which have an area of around 300,000 square kilometers.
However, there are a few countries in Europe with a population of over 20 million. In terms of population, Spain can barely be considered a major country, ranking seventh in Europe after the Soviet Union, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, and Poland.
In terms of resources, Spain ranks among the top in Europe and is much stronger than Italy. For example, Spain does not have large reserves of major minerals such as coal, iron ore, and oil, but it has them all.
At the same time, Spain's copper, tungsten and other minerals occupy an important position in Europe, and Spain's mineral resources should be ranked among the top five in Europe.
Finally, in terms of geographical location, Spain is located on the Apennine Peninsula, which was a very favorable location for economic development in the era of sea power.
Therefore, considering its land area, population, resources and geographical location, Spain is a well-deserved European power. However, despite such favorable conditions, Spain's development is not even as good as some small European countries. Therefore, according to Spain's current level of development, it can no longer meet the conditions to become a great power.
Crown Prince Friedrich said, "I am also more optimistic about the development of the Ottoman Empire. With Kemal's reform policies, the Ottoman Empire is likely to completely surpass Spain in national strength in the next few years. If the Ottoman Empire is given more time, it is not impossible for it to become a great power again."
In this time and space, the development foundation of the Ottoman Empire far exceeds that of Turkey in the previous life. First of all, it did not lose the First World War, which resulted in the Ottoman Empire avoiding the large amount of war reparations that Turkey in the previous life had to bear.
Therefore, Kemal had more funds to develop his country's economy, and the effects of his five-year economic plan were greater than in his previous life.
Then the Ottoman Empire still controlled Iraq and other regions, which also maintained huge profits for the Ottoman Empire. Iraq was the granary of the Ottoman Empire. If it remained in the hands of the Ottoman Empire, at least the food problem of the Ottoman Empire would be greatly alleviated.
Most importantly, the oil resources along the coast of Iraq, now developed, have brought considerable benefits to the Ottoman Empire.
Germany and Central and Eastern European countries have been increasing their oil imports from the Ottoman Empire, and for energy security reasons, Germany has also taken the initiative to help the Ottoman Empire build oil extraction and refining facilities.
In short, the Ottoman Empire does show signs of restoring its status as a great power. Of course, there is no definite answer as to whether it can achieve this.
If Kemal's policies could be maintained for a long time, perhaps in a dozen years, the Ottoman Empire could restore its status as a regional power. However, if Kemal did not live that long, the Ottoman Empire's modernization process might be interrupted.
You have to know that the Ottoman Empire was previously a very stubborn and conservative theocratic country. Those religious, monarchist, and regional separatist forces suppressed by Kemal would definitely jump out after his death.
They may not be able to overturn the overall development path left by Kemal, but they can also hinder the development of the Ottoman Empire.
East Africa actually hopes that the Ottoman Empire can continue to secularize. After all, East Africa does not want the emergence of a country that can integrate Arab religious forces.
From North Africa to the Middle East and Central Asia, and then to South Asia and Southeast Asia, the Arab population and power are too large, especially for Ernst. He had witnessed the fertility of the Arab religion in his previous life. It had almost reached 2 billion, and was still rising and expanding rapidly.
Therefore, Ernst did not want Arabism to develop as it had in his previous life, as this would threaten East Africa's future hegemony in the Indian Ocean and the future of East African countries.
In order to curb the expansion of Arab religious forces, East Africa even acquiesced to the expansion of progressive forces in the Middle East and the influence of the Soviet Union.
(End of this chapter)
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