Chapter 1643 The Complete Diplomatic Shift
The core of the diplomatic strategy of "allying with the United States against the East" was that the Soviet Union was already determined to be the weakest of the three countries, and there was still a lot of room for it to decline.
A war between Germany and the Soviet Union was inevitable, and therefore, the Soviet Union's industries and cities would most likely be impacted.
The Soviet government is now pessimistic; they do not believe that the Soviet Union can keep the Germans out of its borders.
The border between the Soviet Union and the German bloc was too long, making it unrealistic to build a "Maginot Line" like the French.
At the same time, the Soviet Union's territory was in a worse state than in its previous era. It had not regained parts of western Ukraine and Belarus, and Poland had completely sided with Germany.
This also means that once war breaks out with Germany, the Soviet Union's Leningrad industrial region, Moscow industrial region, and eastern Ukraine industrial region, lacking a buffer zone, could easily become the front line if they suffer even a slight setback.
The importance of these three industrial regions in the Soviet Union was obvious. They were the most densely populated and industrialized areas. Not to mention their fall to the Soviet Union, even the impact of the war would have been an unbearable pain for the Soviet Union.
Therefore, Livinov said with great repression: "Faced with the German offensive, the Soviet Union's situation will only get worse. We already have a considerable gap with East Africa and the United States. After experiencing the war, this gap will only widen."
"However, there are gains and losses, and I think this is also an important premise for us to win over the United States."
Joseph's eyes dimmed slightly. He picked up his pipe and took a deep drag. The conference room was filled with thick smoke, much like the restless and sullen mood of the Soviet leadership.
Mezhlaok, chairman of the Soviet Planning Committee, said gravely, "Can't we militarily confine the Germans to the western part of the three major industrial regions as much as possible?"
As he questioned them, he also glanced at the high-ranking Soviet military officials. Joseph wanted to hear their opinions, even though he was well aware of the Soviet Union's current predicament. But what if…
Unfortunately, Soviet military officials also looked gloomy.
Marshal Tukhachevsky bluntly stated: "This is very difficult to do unless we pay a very heavy price, and even then, it may yield little result in the early stages of the war."
"The three major industrial regions are located too close to the west, especially the Leningrad industrial region. Unless we can control both sides of the entire Gulf of Finland, Leningrad will inevitably be directly affected by the war."
"Compared to Germany, our navy is ultimately too weak and its strength is more dispersed."
Unlike the Soviet Union, Germany's navy was a fully modernized world navy, concentrated in the Baltic Sea and along its Atlantic coast. In addition, due to the annexation of Austria-Hungary, Germany also had a Mediterranean fleet.
The German navies on the Baltic and Atlantic coasts could be connected via the Kiel Canal and could be considered as a single entity.
In fact, Germany did just that. The navies in both locations were under the jurisdiction of the German Northern Fleet, which was originally the German High Seas Fleet.
Because it had absorbed the Austro-Hungarian Navy, the Adolf government reorganized it into the "Northern Fleet" to distinguish it from the Mediterranean Fleet.
As for why it's not called the "Atlantic Fleet," it's because the Mediterranean Sea is also part of the Atlantic Ocean, at least that's how Europeans classify it.
In other words, in the Baltic Sea, the German Navy's Northern Fleet was the undisputed regional hegemon, having fully inherited the mantle of the German High Seas Fleet.
Because Germany signed the Treaty of London after World War I, the organization of the original High Seas Fleet was restricted. Therefore, after the 1920s, the original German High Seas Fleet shifted towards becoming more "elite," constantly updating and iterating to maintain its main development direction as a world naval power.
After Adolf came to power, the original High Seas Fleet also continued to break free from the restrictions of the London Treaty. Therefore, in recent years, the High Seas Fleet, also known as the Northern Fleet, has not only maintained world-class quality, but its scale has also continued to grow.
However, whether before or after Adolf came to power, the German Navy's hegemony in the Baltic Sea was not something the Soviet Baltic Fleet could challenge.
The Baltic Fleet was already the most powerful main naval fleet of the Soviet Union.
The Soviet Union currently had three main naval fleets, ranked by strength as the Baltic Fleet, the Black Sea Fleet, and the Pacific Fleet.
In addition to the three main fleets, the Soviet Navy also had several relatively independent flotillas, namely the Northern Flotilla, the Red Banner Amur Flotilla, the Dnieper Flotilla, the Caspian Flotilla, etc.
The Northern Flotilla is the predecessor of the Soviet Northern Fleet, but the Soviet Union has not yet elevated its status.
However, there is no doubt that the Northern Fleet can be regarded as the Soviet Union's fourth naval fleet, with jurisdiction covering the entire coastline of the Soviet Arctic region, including the entrance to the White Sea.
The Soviet government is currently discussing whether to upgrade it to the Fourth Fleet, given the Northern Fleet's heavy responsibilities, including protecting the Soviet Union's most important ice-free ports and naval bases in the Arctic region.
Protecting the vital western section of the northern sea lanes, defending against maritime threats from the Norwegian direction, and the potential threat from the German navy...
The Dnieper Flotilla is a relatively special case. In its previous life, this flotilla did not have the status it has now, because the Soviet Union also had a Danube Flotilla in its previous life.
This was a result of changes in the Soviet Union's territory. In the previous era, the Soviet Union's influence extended to the entire territory of Ukraine and parts of Romania. Therefore, the Danube Flotilla was responsible for the defense of the western Soviet Union.
Now these areas have become part of Germany's sphere of influence, making the Danube Flotilla impossible.
Its homeland defense function was inherited by the Dnieper Flotilla, which greatly enhanced the status of the Dnieper Flotilla, making it one of the four most important flotillas in the Soviet Union.
The above is a general overview of the Soviet Navy. However, the distribution of Soviet naval power also reveals the difficulties the Soviet Union faced in naval development.
Because of its vast territory, the Soviet Navy had to be dispersed, making it even more difficult for the already weak Soviet Navy to play an active role.
Many of the Soviet Union's regional fleets could not be disbanded or integrated, as they were indispensable in their respective regions, given the large number of Soviet neighbors.
For example, the Red Banner Amur Flotilla had to cooperate with the Pacific Fleet to safeguard the Soviet Union's territory in the Far East, and could be called the Soviet Navy's "safety net" force in the Far East.
Japan was the main threat to the Soviet Union in the Far East, and the Pacific Fleet, one of the three major fleets of the Soviet Union, was undoubtedly powerless in the face of the threat from the Japanese Navy.
Therefore, the Soviet Union had to consider that if the Pacific Fleet was annihilated by Japan, the Red Banner Amur Flotilla would have to step forward and cooperate with the Soviet Army to resist any possible Japanese attack on the Far East territories within its own borders.
The situation was similar for the other Soviet fleets. The Soviet Navy had limited funding to begin with, and with so many fleets to support, there was a shortage of resources, making it difficult for them to improve their situation.
This was not all the problems the Soviet Navy faced. Another pain point for the Soviet Navy was exactly the opposite of that of the German Navy: despite having so many fleets, they were unable to communicate with each other.
In particular, the Soviet Union's three major fleets—the Baltic Fleet, the Black Sea Fleet, and the Pacific Fleet—could not be relied upon to support each other.
Therefore, when facing the German Northern Fleet, the Baltic Fleet was basically isolated and helpless. In addition, it was already "trapped in a cage," so how could the Soviet military expect it to protect the safety of the Leningrad industrial area?
Marshal Tukhachevsky said, "Leningrad faced the threat of the German navy directly, and was also vulnerable to German attacks in terms of air force."
"Once war breaks out, this area will inevitably be affected by artillery shells, thus impacting production and daily life in Leningrad."
"The situation in the Moscow industrial zone and the eastern Ukraine industrial zone is relatively better, but it is still very limited, and they also face the dilemma of having no natural defenses."
"Therefore, I can only suggest setting up some military fortresses in the western part of the country, around the high ground and rivers, to replace and delay the German army's initial offensive, and buy us time."
"At the same time, now that the Second Five-Year Plan has been completed, we should also accelerate the transfer of industrial and military forces to the east, especially to the eastern industrial regions such as the Ural Mountains. We must race against time and accelerate the construction of the defense industry."
"As long as we can withstand the initial German attack, we can reorganize a well-organized counterattack from our strategic rear."
"Although Germany is stronger than us in industry, its weaknesses are also very prominent, especially in the energy sector. Once the war between Germany and us reaches a certain stage, Germany will inevitably face energy shortages."
"Therefore, we must ensure the security of the Caspian Sea oil production base, and at the same time, we should make energy a necessary negotiating condition in our diplomacy with major oil-producing countries such as East Africa and the United States."
"Restricting Germany's oil imports is to restrict Germany's war potential. We can then use this to completely disable Germany's armor and vehicles from launching offensive operations."
As the originator of the Soviet deep battle theory, Marshal Tukhachevsky did not present his own theory of proactive offense. Instead, he proposed a strategy of "delay and defense in depth" to limit future German offensives, which was truly out of necessity.
As a top military theorist specializing in deep battle, he naturally wanted to confront Germany head-on.
However, the Soviet Union's current national strength and military power were simply insufficient to support the effectiveness of his theory in the early stages of a future Soviet-German war.
Because the German army was superior to the Soviet Union in terms of strength and weaponry, the Soviet Union would inevitably suffer if it launched an offensive.
Marshal Tukhachevsky's attitude also represented the thoughts of the vast majority of Soviet officers at the time. Of course, if there were any stubborn generals who believed that the "will" of the Soviets could counter the "iron torrent" of the German army, then that person would definitely be an arrogant fool.
Leaving aside the strength of the German Air Force and Navy, Germany is recognized worldwide as the "number one land power," and in the future war between the Soviet Union and Germany, the army will inevitably be the main force.
If it were Germany before the Anschluss, the Soviet military would certainly have wanted to put up a fight and take advantage of the Soviet Union's size. However, after the Anschluss, the Soviet Union no longer had this size advantage. The only thing it could utilize was the Soviet Union's world-class land depth.
In fact, when it comes to discussing territorial depth, countries like East Africa and the United States are definitely the most comfortable. Although their land depth cannot compare to that of the Soviet Union, they have the ocean as a barrier.
In other words, as long as the navies of both countries are strong enough, there is no need to worry about the enemy launching a land attack into their territory.
East Africa is slightly less advanced than the United States in terms of maritime capabilities, mainly referring to its weak military presence in the Mediterranean. However, once this weakness is addressed, East Africa's security will be further enhanced.
However, even without the Mediterranean Sea, it would be extremely difficult for an enemy to attack East Africa through North Africa, given the insurmountable Sahara Desert in between.
Seeing that the Soviet military couldn't offer any significant suggestions on dealing with Germany, Joseph tapped his pipe on the table to draw everyone's attention.
"Comrades, when facing the formidable enemy of Germany, we must acknowledge that the Soviet Union faces enormous disadvantages and security risks."
"A war between Germany and the Soviet Union is inevitable, but we must never choose to sit idly by and wait for death just because Germany is powerful."
"Therefore, in order to counter Germany, we must do everything we can, even join forces with our former enemies. Only by dealing with Germany first and ensuring that our great motherland stands strong can we consider the future of our working nation."
"Therefore, in the next few years, our diplomacy will need to make a comprehensive shift, temporarily setting aside the work of exporting ideology and always putting national defense and security first."
"Actively engage in diplomatic activities with East African countries, the United States, and other Western non-extreme nationalist countries, unite with all countries that can deal with the extreme nationalist bloc, and drown this common enemy of the world in the ocean of the world's people."
The Soviet government was now in a misconception that Adolf's Germany, once it had completed its military buildup, would declare war on the Soviet Union first.
This judgment was fueled by the instigation of Western countries and the public opinion created by Germany itself, so almost all countries in the world believed that Germany would defeat the Soviet Union first and then deal with other European countries.
It was precisely because of this understanding that the Soviet Union was determined to deal with Germany. Now that Joseph had made the final decision, it also meant that the Soviet Union would completely shift its diplomatic approach.
In particular, there has been a dramatic reversal in attitudes toward capitalist countries such as East Africa and the United States.
In fact, the past few years have been the best period for relations between the Soviet Union and East Africa, and between the United States. Although both sides were full of suspicion, they also carried out initial contact and cooperation.
Now, Joseph is determined to further promote the "thawing" of relations between the three countries.
He told Soviet officials, “We had already invited representatives from East Africa and the United States to this celebration of the victory of the Second Five-Year Plan. Taking advantage of this opportunity, our personnel should actively communicate with both countries and show a friendly attitude.”
"The country's media and propaganda departments should also be prepared for a change, and the foreign affairs departments should tighten their control."
"The Foreign Affairs Committee also needs to come up with a contingency plan. If necessary, I might even choose to visit East Africa and the United States!"
(End of this chapter)
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