Chapter 1660 The Afghans' Thoughts
The Soviets' ulterior motives were well understood by the East African side. Overall, the Central Asian Highway would benefit the Soviet Union more than East Africa, and East Africa might not even receive any direct benefits at all.
"The strategic significance of this highway to us far outweighs its economic and political benefits," Ernst concluded.
"Therefore, the budget should be strictly controlled within a certain range. We are not going to provide poverty alleviation assistance to Afghanistan and Balochistan."
"The Afghan government should also put in more effort; if they are willing, it would be good if the road were built to a higher standard."
Crown Prince Frederick shook his head and said, "It's better to hope that the Afghan government can restrain its own people and not cause us trouble than to expect them to help."
“Especially in some tribal-controlled areas in northern Afghanistan.”
Afghanistan is currently a very contradictory country, with a unified and centralized government and monarch, but also a large number of tribes in its social structure.
These tribes are fraught with uncertainty, and it's impossible for East Africa to contact each of them individually.
Ernst said, "The current Afghan government is quite good. At least the young Shah has the desire to promote modernization reforms in Afghanistan."
"Furthermore, having a unified government to govern the tribes in Afghanistan is a good thing for regional stability."
"Afghanistan certainly doesn't have the funds for this Central Asia highway construction, but in terms of manpower, it will rely heavily on the support of the Afghan government."
Afghanistan's financial situation is hopeless, given the regular harvesting from Britain and the Soviet Union; it's impossible for them to save any money.
Moreover, Afghanistan's own development has incurred considerable foreign debt, such as the Kabul-Kandahar highway built in 1932.
This highway was built with German assistance in Afghanistan.
There is no doubt that Germany works harder than most countries in the world to develop overseas markets, so they do not look down on relatively neutral countries like Afghanistan.
There was no other way; Germany was the country with the least market among the great powers.
Germany's industrial size ranks among the top three in the world among the great powers, but it is precisely because of its large industrial scale that Germany is highly dependent on overseas markets.
At the same time, compared to East Africa and the United States, German industry also has a fatal problem, namely, the relative scarcity of domestic resources.
Therefore, if German industries want to develop, they must not only consider selling their products, but also how to acquire the necessary mineral resources.
In this respect, perhaps only Italy and Germany are in a similar situation, both lacking markets and sources of raw materials.
Japan, among the Axis powers, actually faced relatively less pressure in this regard.
Japan wields significant influence in the Far East and has ample room for expansion, which gives it access to relatively favorable overseas markets.
The Korean Peninsula and the Far Eastern Empire territories occupied by Japan were the most direct dumping grounds for Japanese goods. In the northern part of the Far Eastern Empire, Japan also used war to make its commodity exports more advantageous than those of other countries.
Although Germany also controlled many parts of Eastern Europe, these countries were not yet considered "colonies." Countries like Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria, for example, only generally aligned themselves with Germany.
However, these countries have a relatively high degree of independence and their own development needs, so they will not completely obey Germany.
In short, the stronger Germany's industry becomes, the greater its pressure on foreign trade, but the more difficult it becomes for Germany to access overseas markets.
Apart from remnants of the old regime like Britain and France, who occupied vast overseas colonies and were unwilling to "share" them with Germany.
Germany was also at a disadvantage in competing with non-colonial markets. After all, apart from colonial powers like Britain and France, Germany found it difficult to compete with countries like East Africa and the United States in non-colonial countries.
Against this backdrop, before Germany is ready to overturn the table, it will certainly try its best to win over as many countries as possible, and Afghanistan is a case in point.
Ernst said, "In recent years, Germany has invested a lot in Afghanistan, but the actual returns should be quite 'impressive,' and whether these returns will actually be realized in the future is also full of uncertainties."
"Investing in a country with poor transportation, a relatively remote geographical location, and a harsh environment is a challenge in itself."
"It will require a huge initial cost. As for the long-term benefits, two things need to be done: one is that Germany can continue to exist and maintain its current position, and the other is that the Afghan regime is stable."
These two points are easy to understand. If Germany were to lose in World War II as it did in the previous life, as a defeated nation, its interests would naturally be divided up by other countries.
Even countries not at war with Germany can "beat a dog when it's down" and "confiscate" German investments and industries in their countries.
The latter, namely the stability of the Afghan regime, also plays a decisive role in whether Germany's investment can recoup its costs.
For example, if unrest occurs in Afghanistan now, and the Shah is overthrown and a new government comes to power, they may default on past Afghan debts to Germany.
Even if Germany hadn't started the war, collecting the debt wouldn't have been easy.
Because Afghanistan was never within Germany's sphere of influence, but was strongly influenced by the Soviet Union, East Africa, and Britain.
Furthermore, Afghanistan's location is not very friendly to Germany. It is not even a coastal country. If Afghanistan were a coastal country, the German Navy might travel a long distance to force Afghanistan to repay its debts.
The problem is that Afghanistan has no coastline and is a completely landlocked country. Even if the German Navy, with the permission of Britain, crossed the Suez Canal and reached the Indian Ocean coast, it would be helpless. It couldn't possibly use a port in a third country to dock and then go ashore to cause trouble for Afghanistan, could it?
Leaving aside whether East Africa and Britain would allow Germany to dock in ports under their control, even if the two countries agreed, Germany would probably be suspicious and worry that this might be a trap deliberately set for Germany by the two countries.
There is clearly no "political trust" between Germany and Britain, and even in East Africa.
In summary, it is crucial for the current Afghan government to maintain its investment in the country. If Afghanistan were to change its stance, Germany would not even be able to implement its "armed debt collection" tactics.
If it were East Africa, with Britain and the Soviet Union, the situation would be completely different. No matter how the Afghan government changes, Afghanistan cannot evade its debts to these three entities.
If Afghanistan dares to default on its debts to these three countries, then these three countries are capable of making Afghanistan realize that being a deadbeat comes at a heavy price.
Ultimately, the protection of overseas interests still requires military backing.
This is precisely a major reason why Germany cannot compete overseas with countries whose industries are even inferior to Germany's, and Britain and France are typical examples of such countries.
Crown Prince Frederick said, "Not to mention Germany, even we would face certain risks if we wanted to invest in Afghanistan."
"Without the Soviet Union and Britain, our business in Afghanistan would have been guaranteed to be profitable, but if the Soviet Union and Britain stabbed us in the back, the situation would be different."
“We might be able to give Afghanistan a good beating, but it would still be difficult to recoup the costs, or even find creditors, and we would still have to pay additional military expenses.”
If the Soviet Union and Britain deliberately caused trouble for East Africa, such as by supporting local armed groups in Afghanistan and undermining East African investments and industries in Afghanistan.
East Africa certainly has the ability to teach Afghanistan a lesson, but only to teach the Afghan government a lesson.
After all, if the Soviet Union and Britain were to stab them in the back, they would certainly pull back their tails and not reveal any flaws.
It's not easy for East Africa to investigate the truth. In a country like Afghanistan with its many tribes, they can easily shift blame and frame each other, refusing to admit that they did it.
Even with conclusive evidence, the murderer could still disappear into the mountains of Afghanistan and play hide-and-seek with East Africa.
Ernst said, "This is also the main reason why I emphasize that it is best to maintain the current Afghan government. With a unified government, at least if problems arise, someone can be held accountable."
"If the unified government of Afghanistan does not exist, then this region is almost no different from an abandoned cesspool."
"The construction of this Central Asia Highway is also an opportunity for the Afghan government, since the extension of the highway will help strengthen the Afghan government's control over the local areas."
...
Afghanistan.
As the monarch of Afghanistan, Shah naturally hoped to seize this opportunity, and to this end, he convened members of the royal family to discuss the construction of the Central Asian Highway.
"This Central Asia Highway presents a golden opportunity for Afghanistan."
"With the commitments of two major world powers, East Africa and the Soviet Union, the construction of the Central Asian Highway is inevitable. We can use the construction of the Central Asian Highway to strengthen our control over the northern part of the Kingdom."
"At the same time, it will improve domestic transportation and drive economic development."
Shah's uncle, Hashim, who is also the Prime Minister of the Afghan government, agreed with the Shah's assessment.
"In fact, when we were building the highway from Kabul to Kandahar, we considered asking East Africans for help, but East Africa did not agree."
"For a long time, Afghanistan has tried to establish connections with East Africa, but East Africans have not been as interested in Afghanistan as the Soviet Union and Britain."
Unlike Ernst's previous wariness of Afghanistan, the Afghan government, or rather the royal family, genuinely wants to establish friendly relations with East Africa.
Although East Africa was also an imperialist country and had considerable power and influence in Central Asia, it was very different from the Soviet Union and Britain.
That is, East Africa's sphere of influence does not directly border Afghanistan.
Therefore, the Afghan government viewed East Africa as the best country to balance the Soviet Union and Britain.
Unfortunately, East Africa was not very interested in Afghanistan, so in the end, Afghanistan had to hand over the construction of the Kabul-Kandahar highway to Germany.
Prime Minister Hashim told his nephew, the King, "The Central Asian Highway cannot bypass Afghanistan and requires our cooperation. We can take this opportunity to strengthen cooperation with East Africa and let them see our sincerity."
"It would be best to attract more East African capital to invest in Afghanistan, as East Africa poses far less of a threat to Afghanistan than the Soviet Union and Britain."
"Unless East Africa turns Balochistan into its own sphere of influence, we don't need to worry that East Africa will have ulterior motives towards Afghanistan."
The Shah nodded and said, “That’s what I think too. Although, judging from the history of East Africa and its actions in the Middle East and Central Asia over the years, East Africa is not a friendly country.”
"However, if East Africa wants to take action against Afghanistan, it cannot bypass Balochistan, which is within the British sphere of influence."
"With the British in the picture, we are unlikely to have a major conflict with East Africa, and East Africa is unlikely to extend its reach into Afghanistan."
The situation in East Africa, particularly in countries where Islam exists, is extremely poor, given the visible and often radical suppression of Islam in the region.
If Afghanistan borders East Africa, or if Afghanistan itself has access to the Indian Ocean, then Afghanistan should worry about becoming a target of invasion from East Africa.
Fortunately, Afghanistan and East Africa are separated by Britain's sphere of influence, which allows the Afghan royal family to be more daring in seeking cooperation with East Africa.
At this point, Shah's other uncle, Mamoud, who is also the current Afghan Interior Minister, spoke up.
"Of the three great powers, the Soviet Union posed the greatest threat to us because its system was the least friendly to us. Britain may want to strengthen its control over us, but this is more out of a desire to maintain India's security than to pose a significant threat to our rule."
"However, Britain's decline in recent years is also evident, and coupled with the tremendous progress of Soviet industrialization, the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia has undergone tremendous changes."
"Or rather, the balance that Afghanistan has maintained in the past is being broken by the decline of Britain and the rise of the Soviet Union."
"Therefore, Afghanistan must find a new patron to prevent the Soviet Union from having bad intentions towards us, and East Africa is the best choice."
"If nothing unexpected happens, the hegemony of the Indian Ocean will fall entirely into the hands of East Africans in the future, so our current efforts to strengthen ties with East Africa are in the right direction."
Britain's decline is also a significant factor contributing to Afghanistan's current unease, given that Britain was a crucial external force in maintaining Afghanistan's balance in the past.
If this were during the Tsarist era, Afghanistan would naturally be wary of both Britain and Tsarist Russia.
However, after the collapse of Tsarist Russia and the rise of the Soviet Union, relations between Afghanistan and Britain improved dramatically. Britain needed Afghanistan to counter the Soviet Union, and the Afghan government could not possibly surrender to the Soviet Union, since there was no room for the Afghan royal family to survive under the Soviet political system.
Since the 1920s, the relationship between Afghanistan and Britain has been more cooperative than competitive. Of course, under pressure from the Soviet Union, Afghanistan did not dare to completely side with Britain, especially since Britain had a history of invading Afghanistan.
Afghanistan has effectively become a "buffer zone," fragilely maintaining the regional balance.
Now that Britain is losing power, this balance may be broken, which is not what Afghanistan wants to see. Afghanistan needs a country that can rival the Soviet Union.
East Africa became the only option. Among the countries that Afghanistan could reach, only East Africa had the capability to confront the Soviet Union in Central Asia.
As for Britain today, it remains powerful overall, but its military strength is concentrated in Europe, while a large part of Central Asia was Soviet territory. The Soviet Union, having completed two Five-Year Plans, has become one of the world's leading industrial powers.
If the Soviet Union were to launch a full-scale attack on Afghanistan, Britain would have no way to confront the Soviets. Moreover, due to the increasingly tense situation in Europe, Britain would not dare to commit more military forces to South and Central Asia.
(End of this chapter)
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