Chapter 1667 Yugoslavia's Determination
Between East Africa and the United States, Franco clearly preferred to deal with East Africa, given that East Africa had colluded with him during the Spanish Civil War and that East Africa and Spain were traditionally friendly nations.
Franco said, "It is only natural for Spain to establish cooperative relations with East Africa."
“We and East Africa are highly complementary. In East Africa’s trade with Europe, Spain has long played the role of ‘middleman’.”
"Moreover, there are frequent economic ties between Italy and East Africa, especially after the opening of the North African railway."
"If Italy can do that, we can do the same. Germany won't have anything to criticize us for, unless they can persuade Italy to sever ties with East Africa."
This scenario is highly unlikely. Not to mention Italy, even Germany at this stage would not turn against East Africa.
For Germany, the role East Africa plays now is very similar to the role the Soviet Union played before Germany went to war with it in the previous life.
With the Soviet Union clearly hostile to Germany, Germany had no choice but to increase its dependence on East Africa in areas such as energy, minerals, and food.
These supplies were mostly provided by the Soviet Union to Germany in the previous life. In terms of energy, East Africa is the world's most important oil producer. If Germany wanted to import oil from the Soviet Union, it could only do so through smuggling and other means, which was more costly and risky.
In terms of minerals, East Africa is a major mineral resource country that is no less than the Soviet Union. In addition to its abundant domestic mineral resources, East Africa also controls important mineral resources in many parts of Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean and South America.
Food was another important resource controlled by the Soviet Union. Although the Soviet agricultural development model had many problems, it controlled the most extensive and fertile arable land resources in Europe, which destined Soviet food to be of great significance to Europe.
However, the Soviet Union was not fortunate enough to catch the wave, as the rise of East Africa intensified competition in the international food market.
The emergence and rise of this East African country has itself been a huge shock to the world agricultural market. In terms of agriculture, East Africa's food production can fully meet the needs of its more than 200 million people, with a surplus for export.
The fact that East Africa's 200 million people can solve their food and clothing problems has a huge impact on the world.
After all, if you look at the distribution of East Africa and its overseas colonies on the map, they are mainly in Africa and Southeast Asia. In the past, these regions were not only not self-sufficient in food, but were actually important food import areas.
Of course, Franco is not concerned about these issues now. Spain is not a highly developed industrial country, so its dependence on energy and minerals is not high.
As for the agricultural issue, Franco does not yet realize the seriousness of the future, but Spain does have a need to import food.
Spain's agricultural conditions are actually quite poor, especially due to water scarcity and drought. In fact, much of Spain's territory is no different from Morocco across the Mediterranean.
This may be one of the reasons why ancient Arab forces were able to establish a long-term regime in Spain, rather than elsewhere in Europe.
Franco said, "For postwar recovery and economic development, we urgently need more loans and aid from overseas, and East Africa is a better option than Germany and Italy."
For Spain today, borrowing money is an unavoidable issue in its post-war recovery and development.
Franco did not want to rely too much on Germany and Italy, and besides, the Franco government already owed the two countries too much debt just from the civil war.
“To continue borrowing money from Germany and Italy, we must pledge more important national assets, or even make concessions to Germany and Italy on sovereignty.”
"Conditions in East Africa should be relatively more favorable."
This was Franco's judgment: East Africa did not belong to Europe after all, and East Africa was not in a hurry to gain anything from Spain.
Blanco also said: "What East Africa values most is our location. Spain can be said to be the bridgehead between Europe and the South Atlantic. Therefore, East Africa's importance is reflected in the trade between the west coast of East Africa and Europe."
“We can leverage this to strengthen economic ties with East Africa, and even further attract East African companies to invest in Spain.”
"Politically, this is also a good insurance policy for us. If Germany declines in Europe in the future, we can use our connections with East Africa to avoid taking the wrong side."
"Of course, it would be even better if we could reach a consensus with the United States."
This is a classic case of betting on both sides, but it suits Franco's purposes perfectly.
...
While Franco was planning to "hedging his bets," the Yugoslav Republic, more than a thousand kilometers to the east of Spain, was adopting a completely different diplomatic strategy.
Zagreb.
This was the former capital of Croatia, and is now the political center of Yugoslavia, a newly formed European nation.
Because the Austro-Hungarian Empire did not disintegrate after World War I, but instead became even more powerful, Serbia received special attention from the Austro-Hungarian Empire after the war.
The center of the Yugoslav national movement shifted entirely to Croatia, which was then under the rule of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. In other words, Croatia became the leading force for Yugoslav national independence, and Zagreb became the capital of the new country.
However, this newly independent country suffers from a severe lack of security, and President Koshutich and the top government officials are burdened with this serious anxiety.
At that moment, Foreign Minister Maciej was discussing Yugoslavia's situation with President Koshutich.
Foreign Minister Markek said with a great headache: "Yugoslavia is now facing serious internal and external troubles, especially after we expelled the Ustaše, which aroused strong dissatisfaction from Germany and Italy."
"Both Germany and Italy have warned us that any choice we make now could lead Yugoslavia into an abyss."
President Koshutich sighed and said, "In any case, we absolutely cannot allow such an extremely dangerous organization as Ustasha to exist."
"Their ideology is too extreme, and their methods are too cruel and terrifying. If they were to become the leaders of the government, Yugoslavia would inevitably be plunged into civil war, which is absolutely not what we want to see!"
"We, Serbia, and Slovenia are essentially all Yugoslavs, but they want Croatia to completely dominate Serbia and Slovenia, which undermines the unity of the Yugoslav nation."
"Their control of the government will inevitably lead to the division of the Yugoslav nation and country, or even civil war."
"Moreover, Germany and Italy behind them are also extremely dangerous to us Yugoslavs, especially Germany. It can be said that there is no room for us Yugoslavs to survive in the racial ideology of Germany."
Yugoslavia also belongs to the Slavic family, and in the racial ideology of the Adolf government, Slavs were considered an "inferior race." Therefore, Yugoslavia could not avoid the conflict with Germany over racial perception.
"Moreover, Germany itself does not want to see a unified Yugoslav state exist; they want Croatia, Serbia, and even Slovenia and Bosnia to return to their previous state."
"In this way, Yugoslavia could never become a threat to Germany."
"Italy also covets our territory, especially the coastal parts of Croatia. We have real conflicts of interest with Germany and Italy."
While Foreign Minister Maciej did not entirely agree with President Koshutich's statements, his views on the Ustasha organization, an extreme nationalist group, were entirely consistent with Koshutich's.
"The Ustaše was indeed a cancer in Yugoslavia. The formation of Yugoslavia itself was the common ideal of all Croatians, Slovenes, and Serbs, and it was a restoration of the ancient Yugoslav nation."
"Therefore, we must absolutely not allow them to take the lead, or even to enter the government."
"However, now that we are going to exclude this organization from the government, we will inevitably have to bear the wrath of Germany and Italy..."
It is clear that Foreign Minister Markek had no intention of being enemies with Germany and Italy, but the reality was that the Yugoslav government had to make a choice: splitting Yugoslavia was not an option, nor did it want to be enemies with Germany and Italy.
When these two factors clash, Yugoslavia must make a firm decision.
President Koshutich did not give this issue much thought before stating unequivocally, "Yugoslavia will absolutely not yield to them out of fear of war!"
"We were able to defeat the Ottomans and the Austro-Hungarian Empire back then, and we will not be afraid of the threats from Germany and Italy either."
Minister Marchek said with deep concern, "If we've made up our minds, we must prepare for war!"
"France and the Soviet Union had already contacted us before, and now they want to arm the country. We should also make a choice, especially in negotiating with the Soviets."
"We should also attach importance to diplomatic work with the Kingdom of Dalmatia. The Kingdom of Dalmatia is backed by East Africa. If we and the Kingdom of Dalmatia can put aside our territorial disputes, we can reduce our pressure as much as possible."
The relationship between Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, specifically the Kingdom of Dalmatia, was quite complex. The former was characterized by ideological differences, while the latter was marked by territorial disputes.
These are issues that President Koshutich clearly needs to address.
President Koshutich frowned and said, "As for the Soviet Union, we no longer need to engage with them with ideological considerations."
"Yugoslavia is now facing a life-or-death situation. It can talk about anything with the Soviet Union. I think the Soviet Union also needs our help."
"They face just as much pressure as we do when dealing with Germany, and the two countries can have an equal dialogue."
"The two countries can cooperate on everything, especially in the military and economic fields. We need the support of the Soviets."
"In terms of military affairs, we need to arm our own army and build a relatively independent military industry to ensure that our weapons supply will not be cut off in wartime."
"Economically, we must unite Serbia and Slovenia. We need to strengthen development in Serbia and other regions, and build more railways, highways, factories and businesses."
Clearly, to unite all people within the Yugoslav nation, it is essential to ensure they receive the same treatment as the Croatians, thereby reducing the existing divisions between the three ethnic groups.
This would require financial support, which the Yugoslav government certainly lacked, but with the support of the Soviet Union and France, it wouldn't be difficult to accomplish.
Koshutich continued, "Our interests are aligned with those of the Soviet Union and France on the German issue, so if they want Yugoslavia to bear the pressure from Germany, they must provide us with unreserved support in all areas."
"We can sign a military alliance with France, with both countries advancing and retreating together, while the Soviet Union can sign a secret agreement."
Yugoslavia's attitude towards France and the Soviet Union was ultimately different. If France were not an option, President Koshutich would certainly not have taken the Soviet political system into account.
However, the Soviet Union was ultimately an unpopular country in the international community, so it would be best for Yugoslavia to form a secret alliance with the Soviet Union.
Foreign Minister Maček nodded and said, "I don't think the Soviet Union would mind us doing this. After all, we are the only country the Soviet Union can choose from in the whole of Europe right now."
Yugoslavia at least had France as an option, while the Soviet Union couldn't find a single ally it could completely trust, let alone in Europe or even the whole world.
This was also the source of Yugoslavia's confidence in cooperating with the Soviet Union.
President Koshutich continued, "As for the Kingdom of Dalmatia that you mentioned earlier, we should indeed settle things with the Kingdom of Dalmatia!"
"The existence of the Kingdom of Dalmatia is an established fact, and it has East Africa backing it. We don't need to play house with them on historical issues anymore."
"The territorial issue between the two countries has reached a point where it should be resolved. We can make a compromise with the Kingdom of Dalmatia and determine the border between the two countries."
"However, the Kingdom of Dalmatia should also make concessions to us in the field of transportation, especially the original Dalmatian and Bosnian railways, which should be restored. This is important for us to accept aid from France and the Soviet Union in the future."
"If war breaks out with Germany in the future, Zagreb's location is not safe, and we must use Bosnia and Serbia as our strategic rear."
“Especially the mountainous regions of Bosnia and Serbia, I believe that these are the key areas where we should deploy our defense projects.”
Croatia is very close to Germany, and its capital, Zagreb, is only a little over 100 kilometers from the German border.
This means that if war breaks out between the two countries, Zagreb will immediately become the front line, at risk of falling. To put it bluntly, this risk is almost 100%.
President Koschutić did not believe that Yugoslavia could withstand the German advance in Zagreb, or even the whole of Croatia.
It was for this reason that Koschutic understood even more clearly that if Yugoslavia wanted to compete with Germany, it had to make full use of its terrain advantages, namely the mountainous regions of the former Austro-Hungarian Bosnia and southern Serbia.
This meant that the Yugoslav government had to ensure that the Serbs stood firmly on the same side as them, since Bosnia and southern Serbia were themselves predominantly Serbs.
Although there is no longer a formal distinction between Croatians and Serbs, this is only on the surface. Yugoslavia gained independence too late, and it will be difficult for the two peoples to truly be free of any resentment.
(End of this chapter)
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