Chapter 1679 German-Japanese Relations
According to Ernst's logic, once Japan took action against its Pacific colonies in East Africa, the life of Japan as a nation would essentially be on a countdown.
Before launching a war in East Africa, Japan would certainly make comprehensive preparations. To engage in military confrontation with a superpower like East Africa, Japan may need at least two more years to prepare.
"They are unlikely to go to war with the Empire until their reserves of strategic materials such as energy and minerals are depleted."
"In order to plan the war against the Far Eastern Empire, Japan made preparations for decades, and its military supplies were stockpiled for at least a decade."
"Therefore, Japan is not under too much pressure on the Far East battlefield at present, and it is within its tolerance range."
"But then, as the expected results of the war in the Far East failed to meet Japan's expectations, they had to increase their bets, expand the size of their army, and exacerbate the depletion of resources in Japan."
"It won't be long before Japan has to find new sources of energy and strategic materials to support them in continuing the war."
Even before the war, Japan was considered a "poor imperialist" country compared to other powers, and among the powers, only Italy faced the same predicament as Japan in terms of resources.
Therefore, even though Japan prepared for the Far East war for more than a decade before the war, the energy and resources they could collect were still very limited.
Take oil, for example. The United States, East Africa, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands are all oil suppliers in the Pacific region, where oil is not particularly scarce. However, it is unrealistic for Japan to import large quantities of oil resources through trade, especially to support the long-term energy needs of a million-strong army.
On the one hand, the oil prices sold by the aforementioned countries are not low, because oil itself is a stable source of revenue in the global market.
Leaving aside major oil consumers like Europe, even East Africa and the United States, which are also major oil producers, have extremely high domestic oil consumption.
Therefore, the aforementioned oil-producing countries have better buyers, and the profits are higher whether they sell to their domestic market or to regions such as Europe than when they sell to Asia.
On the other hand, as mentioned before, Japan itself is a poor country, at least compared to other major powers, and could even be said to be at the bottom. In terms of the living standards of its people, Japan may not even be as good as Italy.
Although Italy, under Benito's leadership, is now considered a militaristic country, Japan's total military spending and its proportion of government expenditure are significantly higher than Italy's.
At the same time, Italians are inherently better at enjoying life than the Japanese, as evidenced by their superior supply of military rations.
If the Benito government dared to treat Italian soldiers with the same dietary standards as Japanese army soldiers, there's no doubt that the Italian army itself might overturn the table in response.
In short, Japan's current finances are already stretched to the limit due to its high military spending, which accounts for nearly 80% of its economy. It can be said that Japan's economy is now completely tied to the war.
Aside from military spending, Japan has virtually no funds available to purchase all the resources it needs.
Since its full-scale invasion of the Far Eastern Empire in 1937, Japan's gold and foreign exchange reserves have been depleted rapidly in order to pay for the huge imports of war materials. By mid-1938, its reserves had fallen to a dangerous level.
At the same time, the war led to the shrinkage of civilian industries and a decline in the production capacity and competitiveness of export products such as raw silk and textiles. To make matters worse, Japan's aggressive actions led to an international boycott of Japanese goods, which further weakened its ability to earn foreign exchange.
Crown Prince Frederick said, "The United States is now Japan's main supplier. Japan imports more than 90% of its oil from the United States, and scrap steel and machine tools are also continuously shipped to Japan."
"However, this kind of trade is unsustainable. Even if the United States can provide Japan with most of the resources it needs, Japan will not be able to come up with the corresponding funds due to the depletion of its foreign exchange reserves and the empty treasury."
"Like a gambler, Japan's economy has entered a vicious cycle due to the effects of the war."
At this point, Japan's war against the Far Eastern Empire was beyond stopping, much like a gambler betting everything on the card table.
Unfortunately, Japan's war against the Far Eastern Empire was not progressing as well as expected. Before the war, the Japanese government and military had boasted that they would occupy the Far Eastern Empire within three months.
It is true that Japan has achieved remarkable results in the war in the Far Eastern Empire, but the resistance movement in the Far Eastern Empire has become even more intense.
This complex development of the war made Japan even more unwilling to end the war. In order to win the war of aggression against the Far Eastern empire, it was necessary to import a massive amount of strategic materials.
However, imports require massive amounts of foreign exchange, and the war itself destroyed its ability to earn foreign exchange, with foreign exchange reserves and gold being rapidly depleted.
Therefore, Japan is currently in a dilemma, unable to advance or retreat. Once it stops investing in the war in the Far East, its efforts over the past decade will be in vain.
This was an outcome that was psychologically unacceptable to the Japanese, who had already occupied half of the Far Eastern Empire.
Ernst said, "Therefore, as the war in the Far East progressed, Japan had only one option: to launch a war in Southeast Asia so that they could solve their current resource crisis by accessing the energy, mines, and rubber resources in the region."
"It's only a matter of time before Japan attacks Southeast Asia; we must speed up their progress."
"Before the Empire goes to war with Japan, we should continue to increase our investment in the Far Eastern Empire and further deplete Japan's resources on the Far Eastern battlefield."
Crown Prince Frederick said, "Our biggest obstacle on this matter is the political infighting within the Japanese high command, especially the Japanese army. It's hard to imagine that at this stage, the Japanese government still has the mind to fight for power."
The term "Crown Prince Friedrich" primarily refers to the power struggle between Japan's army and navy. The Japanese army, in order to advance its own power ambitions, cooperated with Germany to launch a pincer attack on the Soviet Union from the north, thereby further expanding its land power.
The Far East Imperial Battlefield can now be seen as part of this plan by the Japanese Army.
From East Africa's perspective, no matter what, moving south is the best solution for Japan right now, even if East Africa is deliberately creating obstacles, it is still the best choice for Japan.
Crown Prince Friedrich said, "Even if Japan were to defeat the Soviet Union in the Far East as they expect, it would not actually mean much to Japan."
"Even if Japan defeats the Soviet Union, it will not be able to obtain the various resources to support the continuation of the war. Although the Soviet Far East is rich in minerals, the environment is harsh, and the Soviet Union and the former Tsarist Russia also adopted a very rough management model."
"Even if Japan occupies the Soviet Far East, it will be very difficult to develop the area. Therefore, going to war with the Soviet Union would not be of much significance to Japan at this stage."
"If Japan's only goal is to defeat the Soviet Union in order to protect its interests in the Far East, that is unnecessary. The Soviet Union is already tied down in Europe by Germany, so Japan has no need to worry about the Soviet threat in the short term."
Ernst said, "That's true. The top brass of the Japanese government are well aware of this, but within Japan, especially within the army, even if they know this, they cannot easily give up."
“Besides their own interests, I think Germany and Britain must have also interfered in Japan’s internal affairs.”
Germany was undoubtedly the country that most wanted Japan to drag the Soviet Union into the East, so that Germany could defeat the Soviet Union at a lower cost. As for Britain, it was entirely for the purpose of diverting the trouble to the West, thereby protecting its interests in Southeast Asia.
Therefore, these two countries will also use the public opinion and political resources they control to influence the Japanese government's judgment.
This is similar to how East Africa deliberately amplifies Japan's ambitions for Southeast Asia by bribing Japanese news media and public intellectuals.
If East Africa is doing this, then other countries can naturally do the same, especially Germany, which has close ties with Japan. They can directly influence the Japanese government's decisions through pro-German groups within Japan.
After Japan launched the Far East War, the Japanese government also strengthened its control over people from other countries within the country, especially those countries that were at odds with Japan, East Africa was obviously among them.
However, the Japanese government clearly does not need to be so wary of an ally like Germany. The two countries share common goals, and at least at this stage, their interests are highly aligned.
Therefore, it was much easier for Germans to meet, have private meetings with, provide financial assistance to, and bribe high-ranking Japanese officials.
As for the Japanese army, it was clearly an ideal partner for Germany. The Japanese army itself was modeled after Prussia when it was built, so the two armies had a close historical relationship.
The Japanese Army's "northern advance" strategy now coincides with Germany's desire to confront the Soviet Union, and the Germans will naturally not give up this opportunity to collude with the Japanese Army.
Conversely, Germany was largely opposed to the Japanese Navy's "southward" strategy.
Germany's main enemy at the moment was the Soviet Union, so Germany did not want Japan to focus its efforts elsewhere. Furthermore, Germany did not want to see Japan occupy the South Pacific region.
The Southeast Asian region was also very attractive to Germany, and Germany did have opportunities to gain control of these regions. Theoretically, if Germany could control the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca, it could also take over the colonies of countries like Britain in Southeast Asia.
Moreover, compared to Britain, if Germany could establish communication channels with Southeast Asia, they could indeed achieve a more secure occupation advantage than Britain.
Britain needed to cross the Atlantic Ocean to reach the Mediterranean Sea and then the Indian Ocean to reach Southeast Asia. However, Germany's sphere of influence already extended to the edge of the Indian Ocean, and it also inherited the naval legacy of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire in the Mediterranean. Therefore, it was not difficult for them to reach Southeast Asia.
Crown Prince Frederick said, "Japan and Germany are colluding together, and both sides are filled with their own ulterior motives. Germany itself looks down on Japan, and the fact that the two countries are now able to collude is entirely due to interests."
"If Germany had truly ruled the world, there would have been no way to leave a place for Japan."
"After all, Germany even discriminates against Slavs, so even if Germany doesn't say it, it's impossible for it to look down on a completely Asian country like Japan."
Ernst agreed with this statement, but he added, "Even if Germany had defeated the Soviet Union, the relationship between Germany and Japan would obviously not have ended immediately. After all, even if Germany had conquered Europe, if they wanted to dominate the world, they would still have to deal with us and the Americans. So even if Europe became Germany's servant, there would still be room for cooperation between them and Japan."
"This is also an important reason why Japan was able to collude with Germany. For a long time, the two countries had almost no conflicts in terms of strategy and interests, and they were natural ideal allies."
The relationship between Germany and Japan was built on a common enemy, which is now the Soviet Union, and even includes Britain and France. Even if these countries were to fall, there would still be East Africa and the United States to contend with.
This means that for relations between Germany and Japan to break down, they would probably have to wait until they had defeated all the other major powers in the world except for Germany, Italy, and Japan.
This is unrealistic. East Africa cannot stand idly by while Japan grows powerful in the Far East, and at the same time, it must be wary of Germany's expansion in Europe.
For East Africa, even if the United States becomes an adversary, it is better than the unification of the European continent into one country, since a unified Europe would pose the greatest threat to East Africa's interests.
Leaving aside East Africa's vast interests in Europe, if a unified Europe were to emerge, North Africa, the Middle East, and other regions would inevitably become spheres of influence of that unified Europe, thereby threatening East Africa's interests and security in the Indian Ocean.
Therefore, Ernst said: "In the Far East, what we need is to reshape the landscape of Southeast Asia so that the entire Southeast Asia, including Oceania, will fall into the sphere of influence of the empire."
"In Europe, we must also keep a close eye on the movements of various European countries and cannot allow a country that unifies the forces of all European countries to emerge."
"If such a country emerges, we will be at the mercy of others in North Africa, the Black Sea, and the Middle East, and we may also lose all our interests in Europe."
Ernst singles out the Black Sea here because trade along the Black Sea coast is now an important overseas interest for East Africa.
It was precisely because there was no unified government in the Black Sea region that East Africa, the Soviet Union, the Ottoman Empire, the Balkans, and other countries and regions were able to trade in the Black Sea.
However, if a country emerges in Europe that can unite all forces, it would obviously threaten the freedom of East African merchant ships to enter and leave the Black Sea.
Therefore, even in the future, East Africa will try its best to prevent the Black Sea from falling completely under the control of any one country, such as the Soviet Union. If the Soviet Union wanted to gain control of the Black Sea straits, this would naturally be something East Africa would not want to see.
Similarly, if it were another country, such as the Ottoman Empire, which controlled the Black Sea, and attempted to turn the Black Sea into its own inland sea, it would also be a target of East Africa's attacks.
Of course, for East Africa today, the Ottoman Empire was clearly not a particularly serious threat; at least, it ranked after the Soviet Union and Germany.
At present, the Ottoman Empire is basically a vassal state of Germany, following Germany in major directions. For example, if Germany asks the Ottoman Empire to cooperate with it in certain strategic activities in the Black Sea, Red Sea, Indian Ocean and other regions, the Ottoman Empire is very likely to follow suit.
The relationship between the Ottoman Empire and Germany was much closer than in the previous life. Of course, in the previous life, Turkey was at most a part of the Ottoman Empire, and it was also haunted by the shadow of defeat in World War I. In this timeline, their attitude towards Germany might be very different.
(End of this chapter)
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