Chapter 1689 Prevention
The Low Countries, along with Denmark, effectively formed a strategic buffer zone between Britain, Germany, and France. Therefore, whenever any of these three countries was in power, they would try to conquer these areas to gain strategic initiative.
Currently, Germany has the greatest ambitions toward the Low Countries, while in reality, the Low Countries and Britain have the closest relationship.
The reason is simple: among Britain, France, and Germany, Britain is the least likely to annex these places, while if Germany and France were to take over the region, they would probably just turn it into their own territory.
As an island nation, Britain is somewhat "unfamiliar" with the European continent. In other words, as an independent geographical unit, Britain is more like a "distant relative" to other European countries in the "family" of Europe, and it is the one that is most reluctant to see its European "family members" doing well.
This can be seen from the "balance of power on the continent" strategy, which is detrimental to both sides; Britain would rather the European continent be in chaos than possible.
Driven by this national policy, Britain's positioning of the Low Countries was naturally that of a pawn in destabilizing the European situation, while also serving as a security barrier for its own country.
Compared to France and Germany, which both wanted to incorporate the Low Countries into their own territories, Britain naturally posed far less of a security threat to the Low Countries themselves.
Even so, it is clear that Britain attaches great importance to this region and is unlikely to give it up easily, not to mention France and Germany.
Sosnkowski said, "France cannot cede its own territory, and Britain and France will not allow Germany to take over the Low Countries and Denmark, which are security barriers that they value highly."
"Moreover, these countries themselves have very dense economies, populations, and industries. If any one of them were to take over, it would greatly enhance the national strength of the three major powers, Britain, France, and Germany."
In 1938, the economies of the Netherlands and Belgium were both among the top twenty in the world. Based on this alone, the two countries could be considered economic powers in the world. Each of them was even comparable to Poland, a country with a population of over 25 million, in terms of economic strength.
Poland is a populous country in Europe, but its economy is quite weak, as it is essentially an agricultural country.
Of course, the populations of the Netherlands and Belgium are not small either, with each country now having over eight million people, totaling over sixteen million. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Netherlands and Belgium are comparable to Poland in terms of economic output.
In fact, the Netherlands and Belgium are not small in area, with a combined area of about 70,000 square kilometers. However, compared to the surrounding countries of Britain, France and Germany, they appear to be "tiny" on the map.
In the previous life, the Soviet Province of the Far Eastern Empire had an area of about 100,000 square kilometers, but a population of more than 80 million. In comparison, the population density of the Netherlands and Belgium actually has a lot of room for development.
The Netherlands, in particular, is positioned in Europe much like Shanghai, a Far Eastern empire. In the 21st century, Shanghai had a population of over 20 million, more than twice the current population of the Netherlands.
Not to mention the 21st century, even now, the population of Shanghai, a Far Eastern empire, is around four million, equivalent to about half of the entire Netherlands. At that time, Shanghai's area was less than nine million square kilometers, while the Netherlands' land area exceeded forty thousand square kilometers.
Therefore, it was perfectly normal that in the 20th century, the Netherlands and Belgium, which were already among the most economically developed regions in the world, had economies that were no less developed than Poland's.
Besides these two countries, there are then Denmark and Luxembourg. Denmark's economy also ranks among the top 30 in the world, and its population is close to four million.
Luxembourg is the only one that is relatively small compared to these countries. Luxembourg has a population of only 300,000, but its per capita income is relatively high, especially its steel industry, which is comparable to most countries in the world.
In summary, occupying these countries is equivalent to possessing a highly developed economic region with a population of nearly 20 million. It could even be said that if these countries were to form an independent nation, they would be considered a new major power in Europe.
Once this country emerges, it can easily surpass countries like Italy and Spain in terms of overall national strength, and if it performs well, it could even rival France in terms of economy and industry.
Therefore, the Low Countries plus Denmark have immeasurable strategic and economic value.
Sosznkowski stated bluntly, "So these countries are far more important to Britain, France, and Germany than to Poland."
"This was proven during the last World War. After the war, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Luxembourg did not lose any territory. On the contrary, our western lands were tacitly given to Germany by countries such as Britain and France."
The Poles have always harbored resentment towards the new territories Germany gained after World War I. Although Poland did not exist as a country before the war, and from Germany's perspective, those new territories were spoils of war seized from the former Tsarist Russia, the Poles clearly did not see it that way.
President Piłsudski clearly agreed with this point, but under pressure from Germany, he obviously wouldn't want to cause trouble for himself at this time, unlike Sosnkovsky who had no such concerns.
He continued, "So, Your Excellency, if the new war unfolds as it did in the last world war, the final outcome will most likely be unfavorable to us."
"Germany can only expand its territory in two directions: west or east. The west is a tough nut to crack, while we are obviously not a big threat to Germany."
Germany's neighbors to the west are mainly the Low Countries and France, so these areas are not easy to contest. To the south is Germany's ally Italy, and Germany's territory has already reached the Mediterranean Sea. The value of the Balkan Peninsula is certainly not much compared to Poland, and Germany also has allies in the Balkan Peninsula.
To the north lies the Baltic Sea, followed by several Nordic countries, which also hinders Germany's territorial expansion. To the east, the main destinations are Poland, western Ukraine, and Romania.
Sosnkovsky said, "Romania is a traditional ally of Germany, and their royal family is a branch of the Hohenzollern family. Therefore, it seems that if Germany expands eastward, we and western Ukraine will become very dangerous."
"Germany could not possibly skip over our two countries and then occupy Soviet territory and administer it as an exclave."
"Secondly, Germany's current Chancellor, Adolf, is an extremely dangerous figure, especially since Poland has no place in his worldview!"
Whether Poles acknowledge it or not, they belong to the broad category of Slavs, while in Germany's current racial perspective, Slavs are considered an inferior race.
Furthermore, Poland has a nation that Adolf hated the most: the Jews. This nation has a population of nearly three million in Poland, which is more than ten percent of the total Polish population.
Even though Poles don't care about the life or death of their nation, one in ten people in the country is Jewish... and considering their relatives, friends, and various relationships, the Polish government has no choice but to treat this matter with caution.
Rez, who had previously rejected Sosnkowski's theory of the German threat, voiced his opposition.
Rez said, "General Sosnkovsky is being overly pessimistic. Relations between Germany and us shouldn't have deteriorated to that extent."
"Take the territorial issue you mentioned earlier, we must be clear on one point: whether we acknowledge it or not, before the last world war, we were actually part of Tsarist Russia, even if we were forced into it by the Russians."
"But from the German perspective at that time, there was no doubt that our current territory in Poland was merely an administrative region under Tsarist Russia."
"We really can't find any legal fault in the fact that the Germans ceded land from Tsarist Russia, so in my opinion, the blame still lies with the Russians."
"If Tsarist Russia hadn't annexed our land, Germany wouldn't have had a reason to cede the western lands where our ancestors lived."
"Secondly, your previous assumptions about what would happen after the war are also invalid. During the last World War, Poland was not yet independent. Now Poland is an independent country and an important ally of Germany."
"Even after the war in Europe ends this time, Germany should not take our land like it did last time."
"Finally, if Germany wants to maintain its position as the dominant power in Europe, it cannot treat us unfairly after the war. After all, if it can even turn against its allies, it will greatly damage Germany's credibility. If Germany does this, how can it lead Europe?"
"As for the so-called racial concepts you mentioned, I think that's nonsense. It's true that racial rhetoric in Germany is not popular right now, but I think it's more of a pragmatic political strategy for Germany."
"Prime Minister Adolf himself hoped to win over the general German public with such extreme rhetoric, but I am sure he is a pragmatic person."
"For example, Germany's allies Italy and Spain are good examples. These two countries are obviously not German countries, but Germany still cooperates with and allies with them."
"From this perspective, the so-called racial rhetoric is nothing more than a tool for Germany to maintain its rule. Chancellor Adolf and the German government are still quite flexible in their diplomacy, and we don't need to worry too much about this issue."
"Moreover, compared to Germany, the Soviet Union is clearly the adversary we should be truly wary of. Germany needs Poland, while the Soviet Union and we have absolutely no possibility of peaceful coexistence."
In order to refute Sosnkowski, Rez finally resorted to the "Soviet threat theory," arguing that for Poles, or more accurately for the Polish upper class, the Soviet Union was the truly terrifying country.
After listening to Rezs's new statement, Sosnkovsky did not completely deny it.
He said, "General Rez, I do not deny the real threat the Soviet Union poses to us, after all, there was never any possibility of reconciliation between us and the Soviet Union from the beginning."
"However, this does not prevent Germany from being a potential threat to us, and now we must pay attention to the fact that Germany's strength has surpassed that of the Soviet Union."
"After annexing Austria-Hungary, Germany had a huge advantage over the Soviet Union in terms of overall national strength."
"This means that under German pressure, the Soviet Union's threat to us has been greatly reduced. If the Soviet Union were to go to war with us, Germany would definitely declare war on the Soviet Union."
"Given Germany's dominance, what were the chances of the Soviet Union initiating a war? The answer is extremely low, unless the Soviet leadership had lost their minds."
"Therefore, our current defense and security pressure in the east is actually very low, and there is absolutely no need to worry about the Soviet Union plotting against Poland."
President Piłsudsky nodded and said, "General Sosnkovsky's consideration is very insightful. The Soviet Union does not dare to initiate a war now; on the contrary, it must guard against Germany starting a war against them."
During this period, the Soviet Union did not dare to declare war on Germany. Germany alone was not something the Soviet Union could challenge, not to mention the Axis powers behind Germany.
Sosnkovsky continued, "Your Excellency's judgment is correct. The Soviet Union does not pose a threat to us for the time being, which means that we must pay attention to Germany."
"To put it bluntly, if Germany suddenly wanted to attack us at this time and we were not prepared at all, we might be swallowed up by Germany without leaving a trace."
"Firstly, we are currently too wary of Germany because of the alliance between the two countries, which makes us overlook the long-standing threat that Germany has posed to Poland in history."
"Back then, the reason why Poland was destroyed was not just a problem of Tsarist Russia. Germany and Austria-Hungary also played a part. Most of our current territory, except for the west, was also taken from us by Germany in the north and south."
Here, Sosnkowski is referring to East Prussia when he says "northern," while the south refers to the Polish territory that was once annexed by the Austro-Hungarian Empire. However, now that the Austro-Hungarian Empire is gone, the blame naturally falls on the Germans.
From this perspective, it is clear that all three parts of Polish territory were indeed occupied by the Germans, although a large part of this was due to historical issues.
This obviously put immense psychological pressure on Poland, since history can repeat itself.
Sosnkowski continued, "Secondly, if Germany were to actually do that, I doubt anyone in the international community would speak up for us."
"Britain and France may betray us, just as they did during the Spanish Civil War, in exchange for appeasing Germany."
This speculation is not entirely impossible, considering that Britain and France currently have very few bargaining chips to use to win over and appease Germany.
They certainly wouldn't be willing to give up their own territory in exchange for German concessions, so they would have to rely on others' resources. And looking at the whole of Europe, Poland is undoubtedly the best choice to satisfy Germany's appetite.
Sosnkowski said, "Britain and France could no longer afford to make any further concessions to Germany, because their remaining bargaining chips were their core interests, both at home and in overseas colonies."
"Secondly, there are the allies that are extremely important to both countries, such as the Low Countries, the Nordic countries, and Greece, which are related to their last political and military security line in Europe."
"Therefore, in this context, if Germany were to expand its territory, we in Poland must be vigilant and take precautions against Germany."
(End of this chapter)
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