Chapter 1701 A Piece of Waste Paper
After the signing of the Treaty of Warsaw, Prime Minister Chamberlain and Foreign Minister Bonne had no time to stay in Warsaw and hurriedly left this place of sorrow.
Although they didn't say it aloud, both of them knew very well that the so-called Warsaw Pact was nothing more than a fig leaf used under the guise of peace to sell out their interests to the Axis powers.
Boone was somewhat better off, while Prime Minister Chamberlain was eager to return home to give others an explanation, at least to let the British people know his good intentions.
...
In a study in the Veranov Palace.
At this time, after seeing off Britain and France, Benito was complaining to Adolf about the contents of the Treaty of Warsaw.
"Although Italy gained Libya in the terms of the Warsaw Pact, the result is not satisfactory."
"Libya is already half under Italian control, and even with the addition of French Libya, its overall economic and military value is very limited."
"Even a complete Libya would not have been of much help to the Axis powers in breaking the British and French hegemony in North Africa."
Benito himself harbored great resentment towards the Treaty of Warsaw, especially since he failed to secure Tunisia, which he valued highly.
Although Tunisia will become a jointly administered territory of France and Italy according to the terms of the agreement, Benito still sees this as meaning that Italy has not won over Tunisia.
If Bonnet heard Benito's words, he would probably be furious. France had already suffered a huge loss by giving up Libya, and yet it still couldn't satisfy the Italians' ambitions.
However, Benito's dissatisfaction with Tunisia not being fully under Italian control was not without reason.
Tunisia is arguably the piece of land that Italy most desires to acquire, as obtaining Tunisia would greatly enhance Italy's influence and military deterrence capabilities in the Mediterranean.
Although Libya is much larger than Tunisia, it cannot do this either.
Tunisia is located next to the Italian island of Sicily, with the closest point being only about 150 kilometers away. Controlling Tunisia means controlling the shipping choke point in the central Mediterranean, especially the Strait of Sicily.
Secondly, Tunisia's Bissell is one of the best natural deep-water ports in the Mediterranean, which can serve as a naval base to deter the entire Mediterranean shipping route.
Therefore, it is entirely predictable what would happen if Tunisia fell into Italian hands.
At that time, the Strait of Sicily, located between Sicily and Tunisia, would become a military restricted area controlled by Italy, and together with mainland Italy, would cut off the entire Mediterranean Sea.
At that time, countries in the Eastern and Western Mediterranean will need Italy's permission to travel between them or for their warships to pass through the area.
In addition, controlling Tunisia was a key element of Italy's dream of rebuilding the "Roman Empire," since Tunisia was the closest landing point from Italy to North Africa.
Moreover, Tunisia has a relatively good environment compared to the rest of North Africa.
In 1938, Tunisia's total population was about four million, while the entire Libyan region had less than one million, and neighboring Algeria had a population of just over six million.
However, it should be noted that both Algeria and Libya have areas exceeding one million square kilometers, with Algeria exceeding two million square kilometers.
Tunisia, however, has an area of only about 100,000 square kilometers. As a result, Tunisia had an extremely high population density in 1938. Such a large population naturally required relatively good agricultural conditions to support it.
Although Tunisia's land area is only a fraction of Algeria's, its arable land area accounts for more than 60% of Algeria's.
This is because Tunisia's terrain and climate are more suitable for agriculture, with many hills and valleys and few extreme deserts.
Comparing the two countries' land areas, the difference in the proportion of arable land is even more striking. Algeria's arable land area is less than three percent of its land area, while Tunisia's exceeds twenty percent.
Moreover, this is not the limit for Tunisia. In the previous life, arable land accounted for about 30% of Tunisia's total land area.
This means that if Italy could acquire Tunisia, in addition to gaining significant geopolitical advantages and strategic space, it could also alleviate Italy's current population and economic pressures.
If Tunisia had followed the same bloody approach Italy took in Italian Libya, it could have resettled at least five million, or even ten million, Italians, while Italy's mainland population is only around forty million.
That's why Benito was frustrated that he didn't win Tunisia at the Warsaw conference.
Adolf then spoke up, saying, "Britain and France naturally know the importance of Tunisia, so they want to pressure them and acquire Tunisia through negotiations. We should have understood from the beginning that this is not feasible."
"This is not only unacceptable to the French, but the British also do not want to see us grow bigger in Tunisia."
"Controlling Tunisia means that we can cut off the connection between the British mainland and the eastern Mediterranean, and even the Indian Ocean, at any time."
"Putting all that aside, the mere fact that the British Mediterranean Fleet was split in two is probably something they would find hard to accept."
"Therefore, negotiations are never as effective as war. Only land acquired through war is stable, and what cannot be obtained through war can not be obtained at the negotiating table either."
Benito completely disregarded Adolf's words, that of a war madman.
If Germany had gained roughly the same amount as Italy from the Warsaw Conference, he wouldn't be so upset. The problem is that Germany's gains far exceeded Italy's.
Through the Treaty of Warsaw, Germany's influence throughout the Middle East was significantly enhanced, and it gained numerous effective military outposts.
Although Italy acquired Libya in its entirety, Libya itself has extremely limited value and has not changed Italy's overall influence in North Africa.
While envious of Germany's achievements, Benito had to admit the dominant role Germany played in the conference.
If Italy had half the strength of Germany, it's likely that Italy would have made further progress at the Warsaw Conference. Unfortunately, Italy didn't have that strength, so from the perspective of Britain and France, Italy would have made a huge profit simply by acquiring the entire country of Libya.
They only allowed Italy, that "dog," to bite them because of Germany's sake.
Without Germany, let alone Libya, they would never have ceded an inch of land to Italy, and might even have turned against Italy.
Adolf wasn't thinking much about Benito's ulterior motives; in his view, Italy still had considerable value to be exploited.
He emphasized, "The Treaty of Warsaw was just a smokescreen we used to deceive Britain and France, so we don't need to worry too much about its contents."
"Instead of getting bogged down in such trivial matters, we should focus more on expanding our military capabilities."
"This negotiation with Britain and France was nothing more than a test of their attitude, and at the same time, it was also to prepare for our next actions and to make Britain and France lower their guard against us, the Axis powers."
The Treaty of Warsaw and the Munich Agreement were essentially not much different, except that Germany's bargaining chips changed from the Sudetenland to the Middle East, and included provisions for Italian territorial expansion.
Therefore, Adolf's previous arrogant demands on Britain and France were originally intended to mislead the two countries and cause them to misjudge Germany's strategy.
One of the purposes of the Treaty of Warsaw was to create a false impression for Britain and France.
That is, through the signing of this treaty, the two countries transferred a portion of their interests to satisfy Germany's ambitions, thereby making Germany abandon its continued expansion and coercion in Western Europe.
Conversely, if Germany hadn't made exorbitant demands on Britain and France during the Warsaw Conference, those countries might have suspected Germany of having ulterior motives.
A clearly "bad neighbor" can be understood by ordinary people if he appears greedy and fierce, but it is truly chilling and terrifying if he smiles and puts on a hypocritical face.
Therefore, the more greedy and demanding Germany appeared, the more at ease Britain and France felt, as if things were still within their understanding and control.
Italy also inadvertently strengthened the outcome that Adolf wanted to achieve at the Warsaw Conference.
"The Treaty of Warsaw is just a piece of waste paper, so I had no interest in the outcome of the Warsaw Conference beforehand."
"Being able to extort some real benefits from Britain and France is already a pleasant surprise."
Adolf concluded without any attempt to conceal his true feelings.
His attitude also cheered Benito up considerably, who had been feeling rather down.
Benito is not worried about Germany's insatiable greed; rather, he fears that Germany's lack of greed means that Germany is at risk of being bought off by the Treaty of Warsaw.
If Germany is satisfied with the Treaty of Warsaw, it would mean that Germany might abandon its hostile attitude towards Britain and France.
This is clearly extremely disadvantageous for Italy.
Ultimately, this stems from the differences in geopolitics and strategic direction between Germany and Italy, which has led to Italy's concerns about Germany.
Germany has more options than Italy because of its geographical "advantages." In a sense, Germany's geography is extremely unfavorable to its national defense and security, since it is located in the heart of the European continent, especially in the center of the vast plains of northern Europe.
Therefore, for most of its long history in Europe, Germany was a battleground, as ancient Rome, the Vikings, and later France and Russia all expanded into or plundered this land.
However, this disadvantage was based on the fact that Germany had not yet completed unification and was weak.
Conversely, if Germany were unified and powerful, it could launch attacks on all fronts, facilitating its expansion abroad.
Germany now has four strategic expansion strategies to choose from.
First, it was to antagonize Britain and France, thereby expanding into Western Europe. This was what Britain and France were most worried about, so they actively provoked conflict between Germany and the Soviet Union and constantly compromised and made concessions to Germany.
Secondly, the prospect of being at odds with the Soviet Union and continuing to expand into Eastern Europe was extremely attractive to Germany, as the Soviet Union's land and resources in Europe were excellent sources of nourishment for Germany's further growth.
Then, Germany could also choose to expand into both Western and Eastern Europe simultaneously, but this would require even greater courage and would be more difficult, potentially leading to a complete alliance between the Soviet Union and Britain and France.
Finally, Germany could choose not to go to war, but instead replicate the Warsaw Conference to continuously extort benefits from Britain and France, and steadily increase its influence in Europe by replicating the experience of the Axis powers' growth.
Regarding the last point, it is not impossible for Germany to achieve it now. After all, it has only been a few years since Germany annexed Austria-Hungary, so there is still room for further integration and development within Germany.
Not to mention that Germany is now the de facto hegemon of Central and Eastern Europe, so Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and a host of other countries besides the Soviet Union can provide Germany with the food and mineral resources it needs for development.
Moreover, after the signing of the Warsaw Pact, Germany further extended its influence into the Middle East, gaining more resources.
Therefore, if the current German leaders were not radicals like Adolf, or even war fanatics like Adolf, Germany might have embarked on a path of peaceful development.
This is exactly the situation Benito was most worried about.
If Germany doesn't stir up trouble in Europe, it will be incredibly difficult for Italy to go any further.
Due to its own limitations, Italy has extremely limited strategic development options. First, there is the conflict between population and land. Italy already has a high population density, a small amount of arable land, and the quality of its arable land is far inferior to that of Germany.
At the same time, Italy's climate is a serious constraint on its agricultural development, as most of Italy has a Mediterranean climate.
This climate, with its asynchronous rainfall and heat, is more suitable for the cultivation of special cash crops than for the growth of food crops.
Therefore, Italy faces significant development challenges, and even basic food security cannot be effectively guaranteed.
Focusing on industrial development is also an extremely difficult path for Italy. Limited by resources and market constraints, it would be very difficult for Italy to even become the world's "sweatshop."
Needless to say, in terms of resources, the market needed for industrial development was also a problem for Italy, especially in the early 20th century when European industrial nations were clustered together and infighting was extremely severe.
The effective consumer market in Europe was actually dominated by four countries: Germany, the Soviet Union, Britain, and France, leaving very little for other countries.
In addition to their large industrial base, they also have a significant advantage in resources over Italy. Even Germany has far more resources than Italy.
Moreover, these countries have strong hard power and are the true leaders in Europe, thus occupying a larger market share.
The size of a market depends on military strength and political influence. For example, Germany's vassal states are essentially Germany's economic territories, making it very difficult for other countries to enter.
Other European countries outside Germany's sphere of influence were clearly more willing to accept the leadership of Britain and France than Italy.
In conclusion, Italy's conditions are actually worse than those of other major European powers if it wants to peacefully develop its agriculture or industry through its own efforts.
If Italians can accept "mediocrity" and a lower standard of living, then there is naturally no problem, but this is clearly not something Benito can accept, nor is it something Italians can accept.
(End of this chapter)
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