Chapter 485 War Simulation
While training the blacks, East African Army generals were also analyzing Mozambique's strategic intentions.
Yarman: "Through intelligence analysis of Mozambique, we can determine that Mozambique's military is now mainly concentrated in the south, with a large number of blacks being trained. The exact number is unknown, but it should be no less than 30,000, with more than 10,000 in Maputo alone."
Siwei Te analyzed: "We can guess how many troops Mozambique will organize based on the maximum capacity. According to the density of our East African natives in the past, Mozambique's population should be more than two million. It is possible for Portugal to organize hundreds of thousands of troops, but they obviously don't have the strength to do so. The problem of weapons and equipment cannot be solved. However, if we force them, they should be able to mobilize hundreds of thousands of people. With the help of Britain and France, tens of thousands of black troops with relatively sophisticated military equipment should be able to be formed, but their combat effectiveness may not be very high. The Portuguese should also be able to send out thousands of troops on their own."
Felix: "Mozambique borders East Africa on three sides, so they can attack us from three directions. One is the Southern Frontier Province, one is the Matabele Province, and the last is the Malawi Lake and the Ruvuma River in the north. If we assume that Portugal mobilized 50,000 troops, then they can only attack in one direction."
Siwei Te: "Our defense system along the Rovuma River is very complete. For more than a decade, we have always used the Rovuma River as the default border between the two sides, so the defense fortifications along the river are very good. If Mozambique uses blacks as the main force to attack the Rovuma River line, it will be absolutely stupid."
Merkel: "I don't think so. The defense line of the Ruvuma River relies on river and lake troops. In this regard, our river and lake troops are actually very limited. For example, the middle and upper reaches are not covered. The Ruvuma River is very long, especially in the west. The Ruvuma River does not extend all the way to Lake Malawi, so there is a big gap."
Siwei Te: "But correspondingly, the Portuguese have no advantage along the Rovuma River. They have hardly developed the south bank of the Rovuma River. We have river and lake troops on the Rovuma River to support us. I'm afraid they can't even get together a ferry, unless they make a batch temporarily to cross the river."
Yarman: "Do you think there is a high possibility that the Southern Border Province and Hechingen Province will be attacked?"
"It is very likely that these two places are too close to Maputo and I believe that the Portuguese pressure is the greatest in these two provinces."
"The Hechingen Province has the Drakensberg Mountains as a barrier and has a natural geographical advantage. The Portuguese should not focus on the Hechingen Province, so the military strength in the Southern Frontier Province should be strengthened. Our military defense focus in the Southern Frontier Province is on the Tugela River line in the south to deal with the British. The northern line is indeed not given enough attention."
"If Portugal really attacks the Southern Frontier Province, they can only move southward from the coastal plain. This area is relatively narrow, and sending another brigade should be enough. Our strategic goal cannot be to capture Maputo at the beginning, otherwise the Portuguese may surrender directly. Therefore, the northern line of the Southern Frontier Province should focus on defense."
…
While East Africa was formulating a war strategy against Portugal, the two good brothers, Britain and France, were also helping Portugal with advice. However, compared with the calmness of the East African Army, the military personnel of Britain and France had a headache.
"The terrain of Mozambique is not conducive to defense. It can be said that it is heavy at both ends and light in the middle. It is easy to be cut in half. However, whether it can be cut in the middle by East Africa depends on the strength of the interior of East Africa and the deployment of East Africa's troops."
"East Africa's military forces are mainly concentrated in two areas, one in the south and one in the north. The East African troops on the other side of the Ruvuma River should have the strongest number and strength, followed by the south. The military strength of East Africa in South Africa is not bad either. They have a natural fear of Cape Town." British Army instructor Johnson said proudly.
It is easy to understand why the British made this judgment, because East Africa did indeed deploy its troops in this way. The area north of the Ruvuma River is the absolute core area of East Africa, and South Africa and East Africa have also made great efforts to deploy military forces to prevent British forces from moving north.
Johnson said: "So although East Africa has more troops and more areas to defend, we have tied up at least 50% of their military forces. If it weren't for your inaction in Portugal, East Africa would not have expanded so quickly."
The French instructor was very unhappy to see the British looking like they deserved a beating, but the Portuguese were indeed too incompetent. They had stayed in Africa for hundreds of years, relying on their old capital to make a living, but ended up being bullied by the Germans who came later. It was so shameful.
This is easy to say without any concern. If Portugal really had the courage and strength to expand in Africa, I am afraid that today Britain, France and Germany would join forces to deal with the Portuguese.
As for why Portugal has not made much progress in Africa, this cannot be blamed on the two colonial governments. Brazil used to be the favorite son of the Portuguese Kingdom, and its main investment was also in Brazil. But who would have thought that Brazil would become independent directly.
After Brazil was gone, the Portuguese government was still extremely chaotic. It had no energy to unite against external threats, and was extremely self-destructive. It exploited the remaining colonies even more. Moreover, the sequelae of Brazil's independence was that the Portuguese government became even more secretive about investing in colonies. What if it failed again?
Compared with East Africa, which develops itself as a homeland, the natural development of Mozambique and Angola is not satisfactory. East Africa's development is based on continuous investment without considering the cost, while the development of Mozambique and Angola is actually restricted. The homeland has to suck blood from the two places. After all, the local economy is not good and the landlords have no surplus food.
"So in these two regions, I think we can only focus on defense in the north. Our goal is to attack and dismember East Africa. It is too unrealistic to eliminate East Africa, so it is better to focus on South Africa."
Johnson thought so for another reason, which was to use the Portuguese to consume East Africa's strength in South Africa. After all, Cape Town was watching eagerly from the sidelines!
The French saw through the British's little trick and said, "You have said before that East Africa has made a large military investment in South Africa. I don't think it is appropriate to let Portugal focus on this area."
The Governor of Mozambique, Leford, agreed and said, "Colonel Clement's words make sense. East Africa has a large population. If we put our military strength mainly into South Africa, it may be disadvantageous to us. So we can't put all our eggs in one basket."
The existence of the Southern Frontier Province did pose a great threat to Maputo's security, but if Portugal pulled out this nail, it would have to be neighbors with the British, so it would be better to let East Africa stay there! As the British themselves said, they tied up East Africa's energy, so East Africa could not concentrate on dealing with Portugal in the Southern Frontier Province.
This is a multiple-choice question. The problem is that both answers have advantages and disadvantages. However, in Lyford's view, the threat from Britain is greater than that from East Africa. To deal with East Africa, Portugal can choose Britain and France to check and balance. But who can check and balance the British? Rely on France? I am afraid they will sell Portugal in exchange for Britain's concessions to them in other areas, such as West Africa.
Although the threat from East Africa to Mozambique is imminent, to be honest, East Africa has been quite good to Mozambique over the years and has never done anything excessive. On the contrary, the UK has a criminal record.
East Africa's mistake was that its power expanded too quickly, which frightened the Portuguese. Moreover, this time Britain and France guaranteed that even if Portugal was defeated, they would not let East Africa swallow Mozambique and Angola. If East Africa insisted on its own way, the two countries would join forces to put pressure on East Africa. Therefore, having a bottom line was the real reason why the Portuguese dared to take advantage of the fire. If they won Mozambique, they would make a lot of money, and it might even be possible to connect Angola and Mozambique, which would not be much worse than the original Brazilian colony. If they lost, they would not lose everything, and they could still keep the colonies of Mozambique and Angola.
Johnson was very upset when he saw that his plan could not succeed and asked, "What do you think?"
Clement: "I think we should take a defensive stance in both the north and south directions, especially Maputo. Although it is very close to the southern colonies of East Africa, it is impossible for East Africa to capture Maputo. I dare say that Maputo's defense is one of the best in all of Africa. Without heavy weapons and a large number of troops, it is basically impossible to capture this place."
Clement is not praising the Portuguese, but speaking realistically, Maputo is indeed the most difficult fortress to break through in the entire sub-Saharan Africa. Perhaps in the entire sub-Saharan Africa, only the century-old city of Cape Town can compete with Maputo.
"What if East Africa attacks from the sea? East Africa's navy is not bad. They almost bought an entire navy from the Austrians."
"This requires cooperation between our two navies. No matter how strong the East African navy is, can it be stronger than our two countries? We must first issue a military ultimatum to prohibit any naval forces in the East Indian Ocean region from interfering in this war."
This means tying one of East Africa's hands to fight Portugal. However, if Britain and France spoke up, Ernst would have to admit that it was indeed very powerful. The East African Navy could not withstand the joint efforts of the world's first and second navies.
Clement went on to say, "Our offensive focus should be on the central region, attacking the heartland of East Africa. This is Mozambique's weakness, in other words, it is also East Africa's weakness. We should defend the north and south and wait for attack to contain East Africa's main force. We should quickly cut off the connection between the north and south of the East African Kingdom. Angola and Mozambique will meet in the central region of East Africa, and then southern East Africa will also become an enclave, which will greatly reduce the threat of East Africa."
If Clement's plan succeeds, East Africa will lose the middle zone mainly composed of Zimbabwe and Zambia. After the connection with the east is cut off, South Africa and Southwest Africa will become lambs to the slaughter. East Africa may really become East Africa and return to the time ten years ago.
However, this is only an ideal state. Not only did Britain, France and Portugal misjudge the real military strength of East Africa, they also ignored the existence of a weapon of war in East Africa. The reason why the French failed in the last Franco-Prussian War was closely related to the construction of Prussian railways. The French once again ignored this problem. East Africa has a major artery inland, and can rely on the central railway to support the weak links on the battlefield at any time.
(End of this chapter)
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