Chapter 1690 Half the battle is lost at the start.
Poland's geopolitical environment is worse than Germany's, and Poland is clearly not a place without value; on the contrary, it has extremely high strategic value and is basically indefensible.
The reason why the Yugoslav government dared to strengthen its armed forces right under Germany's nose was because Yugoslavia had a lot of mountainous terrain, which gave the Yugoslav government a certain degree of confidence.
Poland's main territory consists primarily of mountainous plains.
Sosnkovsky continued, "For now, the best thing for us is to pray that war doesn't break out, not to mention my previous extreme speculations."
"Once Germany and the Soviet Union go to war, regardless of the final outcome, we have already lost half the battle."
His statement surprised the Polish leadership, with President Piłsudski asking, "General Sosznkowski, I don't know where you get this idea from."
Sosnkovsky said, "Your Excellency, with Germany and the Soviet Union at war, do you think the war between two countries of such size can end easily?"
President Piłsudski naturally shook his head. He admitted that the Soviet Union was now much weaker than Germany, but given the size of the Soviet Union, it would be difficult for any country in the world to defeat it in a short period of time.
"Germany would need considerable time to conquer the Soviet Union, even if it included the entire Axis powers," President Piłsudski began.
Sosnkovsky added, "Moreover, if the Soviet generals were skilled enough, they might have been able to retaliate against Germany."
"Since the emergence of the Soviet Union, especially in recent years, we have had to acknowledge a reality: the Soviet Union's industry has developed rapidly."
"In the past decade, the Soviet Union has established a very complete industrial system, and the Soviet Union has a significant advantage over Germany in terms of resources. The Soviet Union has almost no shortcomings. Therefore, I think that the gap between the Soviet Union and Germany has not only not widened, but has actually narrowed, especially compared with the Tsarist era."
"Before the last World War, around 1913, Germany's steel production exceeded 15 million tons, even approaching 20 million tons, while Tsarist Russia's steel production was only over 4 million tons. That is to say, at that time, Germany's steel production was nearly four times that of Tsarist Russia."
"Now the Soviet Union's steel production has exceeded 17 million tons, while Germany's steel production is about 30 million tons, less than twice that of the Soviet Union. Germany's advantage over the Soviet Union in steel production has actually shrunk."
"This was after Germany annexed Austria-Hungary, when Germany's steel production increased dramatically, which shows how astonishing the speed of Soviet industrial development was in the last decade."
In recent years, the Soviet Union's industrial development has indeed been far more outstanding than Germany's. This mainly refers to the fact that the Soviet Union has progressed faster than Germany. Of course, the Soviet Union's pace of progress has also exceeded the expectations of most countries in the world.
The impact was particularly strong on European countries. During the Tsarist era, Russian industry was looked down upon by European countries, but now the Soviet Union has become the second largest industrial power in Europe.
What worries Europeans even more is that the Soviet Union's industrial progress has not slowed down. They cannot see the future, but if the Soviet Union continues to develop at this pace for another ten years, its industrial size may surpass that of Germany.
At the same time, their "optimistic" expectations of the Soviet Union were also influenced by the Great Depression of 1929 and Soviet ideology.
The Great Depression of 1929 dealt a severe blow to the confidence of capitalist countries, while the Soviet Union was developing rapidly at the same time, inevitably giving people the illusion that the capitalist world was doomed.
At least many European politicians have been affected by this.
Sosnkovsky said, "In addition to the rapid development of the industrial sector, the Soviet Union's military industry was also developing rapidly."
"During the Tsarist era, Russia's military was greatly constrained by its industrial shortcomings, backward basic transportation infrastructure, and relatively corrupt bureaucratic system."
"Even the army struggled to provide each soldier with a basic firearm, and the supply of materials couldn't keep up with the changing situation on the front lines. I think it's unlikely that this situation would be repeated in the Soviet Union."
"We have to admit that although the Soviet Union was an evil country, it was far more advanced than Tsarist Russia in terms of governance, and the efficiency of its government was also remarkably improved."
"This is also the institutional guarantee for the rapid industrial development of the Soviet Union over the past decade."
Although Sosnkovsky also disliked and even hated the Soviet Union, he now gives a completely fair and objective evaluation of it.
After all, belittling the Soviet Union was something said to the Polish people, a matter of fundamental principle for maintaining Polish national stability. And since those present were all high-ranking Polish government officials, they naturally had no such concerns.
Sosnkovsky continued, "At the same time, the Soviet Union is now united. The main reason why Russia was defeated in the last World War was the unrest within the country."
"But I don't think this situation will repeat itself in the Soviet Union now. After nearly ten years of rapid development in the Soviet Union, the Soviet people have basically been completely won over by the Soviet government."
"The Soviet opponents, including us and the Soviet exile organizations, were also suppressed by the Soviet government to the point of being completely powerless. They did try to instigate internal conflicts in the Soviet Union, but they did not achieve any useful results."
As an enemy of the Soviet Union and its main neighbor, the Polish people naturally could not sit idly by and watch the Soviet Union develop steadily.
Therefore, since the establishment of the Soviet Union and Poland, the two countries have experienced countless open and covert clashes, and in the early days, they even fought a direct war.
Therefore, even with Poland's direct involvement, nothing significant happened in the Soviet Union, and naturally, those exiled governments and organizations abroad were even less likely to gain any traction.
Of course, this is mainly because the Soviet Union is currently in a period of rise, especially during its period of rapid development, and internal contradictions have been reduced to almost the lowest level in history. In the previous life, the political movements in the Soviet Union at this time did not have a significant impact on Soviet society, let alone the fact that the political situation in the Soviet Union is much more relaxed now than in the previous life.
Sosnkovsky said, "The Soviet Union now has a powerful defense industry capable of designing and producing all kinds of weapons, aircraft, armored vehicles and artillery of all types."
"This means that the Soviet Union was not actually that far behind Germany in terms of weaponry, especially compared to the Tsarist era. The only difference was that Soviet industrial products were not as sophisticated as German-made products and their performance was relatively inferior."
"However, this gap can be completely offset by a larger number of personnel, more intensive training, and better and more rigorous military command."
Of course, the Soviet Union no longer has a significant population advantage over Germany, and the German army is clearly more scientific and standardized in terms of training and command, and its traditions are well-established.
However, although Germany increased its total population by annexing Austria-Hungary, the number of the dominant ethnic group in Germany did not increase much compared to its predecessor.
After all, Germany had annexed Austria in its previous life, and after its defeat in World War I, many Germans from the surrounding areas of Germany and Austria returned to Germany.
Therefore, overall, the Soviet Union still maintained a population advantage over Germany.
Sosnkovsky said, "In all respects, the gap between Germany and the Soviet Union is not large now, but that is precisely the most worrying point."
"If Germany and the Soviet Union go to war, Poland could become a battleground between the two countries, which would be a disaster for Poland itself."
If the war between Germany and the Soviet Union remains deadlocked, Poland could become a battleground for the two countries' protracted conflict.
This is also why Sosnkovsky previously said that starting a war would result in a 50% loss.
After listening to Sosnkovsky's explanation, President Piłsudski frowned even more deeply.
He said, "In other words, we in Poland are now facing a triple risk. Scenario one: if the war between Germany and the Soviet Union ends in a stalemate, Poland will become a battlefield, which would obviously be a disaster for us."
"Hypothesis 2: If Germany defeats the Soviet Union, Poland will certainly still be affected in the early stages of the war, and Germany's attitude towards us after the war is uncertain. It may abandon us after we have served our purpose and annex us directly."
"Hypothesis 3: If the Soviet Union wins the war, it will obviously not let us go."
Clearly, none of these three scenarios are the answer that President Piłsudski and the Polish leadership want.
At this point, Rez said, "Your Excellency President and everyone, Poland's current situation is indeed difficult, but I believe that the third scenario Your Excellency mentioned is the one we least want to face."
"According to hypothesis three, if the Soviet Union wins, we will all inevitably become targets of Soviet retribution, and there will be no possibility of reconciliation with the Soviet Union. Hypotheses one and two, on the other hand, leave room for easing tensions."
Rez is clearly speaking from the perspective of the Polish ruling class. Assuming that Poland becomes a battlefield, it will not have much impact on them, since the main victims of the war are Polish civilians.
The second assumption mainly concerns Germany's postwar attitude, which is uncertain. However, Polish politicians clearly still harbor some illusions about Germany.
If they can protect their own interests, it's negotiable whether they actually become "Germans"! After all, even clearly mixed-race countries in East Africa can use the label of "German countries".
What they were most worried about was that the German government would not accept their "defection".
Of course, given a choice, the Poles would naturally prefer to maintain their independence, perhaps even seeking some benefits by aligning themselves with Germany and expanding their territorial boundaries. Although Poland's strength is now far less than in its previous era, its dream of becoming a great power has never been extinguished.
At this point, Sosnkowski spoke again: "Gentlemen, it is foolish to hand over the reins of destiny to others. I believe that Poland should take its own destiny into its own hands."
Rez retorted, "General Sosnkovsky, if we had that power, we would naturally want to control our own destiny, but the problem is we have no choice!"
"We have no choice but to follow in Germany's footsteps. After all, the gap between Poland and Germany is too big. If we don't follow the path designed by Germany, Germany will probably target us first."
What Rez said is a very real issue. In the past, Poland dared to challenge Germany because of the gap in national strength between the two countries, but it did not cause Poland to lose confidence.
In the previous life, Germany had a population of over 75 million, while Poland had over 35 million. Now, Germany has a population of over 100 million, while Poland has only over 20 million, making the population disparity quite significant.
In the industrial sector, the gap between the two countries is even greater than in the previous life. Although Germany was a strong industrial nation in the previous life, it was subject to various restrictions imposed by the Treaty of Versailles, especially in the military industry, which stagnated and even regressed in some areas.
In its previous existence, Poland, as an independent nation, was courted by Britain and France to contain Germany, and received significant support from them, particularly in the military sphere.
However, now that Poland is Germany's junior partner, this treatment no longer exists. Moreover, Germany has no intention of supporting Poland. It's already considered good that the Adolf government isn't suppressing Poland's development.
In fact, Poland's development in the military field was monitored by Germany. For example, Germany was watching how many troops Poland could build, the scale of its military spending, and how its military industry would develop.
In Adolf's view, Poland did not need to invest too much in military affairs, since as a vassal state of Germany, Poland's security was naturally guaranteed by Germany.
Germany is well aware of Poland's ulterior motives. Many territories in eastern Germany were indeed acquired from Poland, which has drawn criticism from the Polish public and media. Some extreme nationalist forces are even specifically targeting Germany, attempting to sow discord among Poles currently residing in Germany.
The Polish government was also a thorn in the side of the Axis powers, as evidenced by its collusion with Italy.
The Polish government, led by President Piłsudski, had long been wary of Germany, but was unable to break free from German control due to the realities of the situation.
Therefore, Poland needs to find a trustworthy ally, and Italy is undoubtedly the best choice.
Italy was the second-in-command of the Axis powers, so Germany could find no excuse to interfere in the diplomacy between Poland and Italy.
Furthermore, Italy and Germany's interests are clearly not entirely aligned, and Italy also harbors reservations about Germany. Therefore, the alliance between Poland and Italy can be described as a "match made in heaven."
Under these circumstances, Germany, while not entirely trusting the Poles, was extremely vigilant and guarded against them. How could Germany possibly allow Poland to develop its military unchecked?
As the saying goes, "When you hold a sharp weapon, the desire to kill arises." Similarly, if a country's military exceeds reasonable limits, it poses a threat to its neighbors to some extent, and, to put it another way, it can easily cause the country to slip out of control.
This can be seen in the war between the Far Eastern Empire and Vietnam in the previous life. Vietnam's military expansion gave it the illusion that it could provoke the Far Eastern Empire, resulting in a severe beating.
In addition, there was the peninsula country next to the Far Eastern Empire, which also had unpleasantness with the Far Eastern Empire over the issue of nuclear weapons. After all, given the situation on the peninsula, its nuclear weapons obviously did not pose much of a threat to the so-called "enemy country" across the ocean, but instead would pose a security risk to the capital of the Far Eastern Empire in the previous life.
Of course, everyone knows that the real big brother behind the Korean Peninsula is Russia, and Russia's purpose in supporting the peninsula is self-evident.
Similarly, Germany must also consider the possibility and risk of Poland colluding with extra-regional countries such as Britain and France.
(End of this chapter)
Continue read on readnovelmtl.com