At the end of LS Street in Chicago's financial district is the futures exchange building.
This is the world's oldest futures and options exchange, with a total of 3,600 items and commodities.
Kenny went to work at the stock exchange building as he had for the past twenty years. "Good morning, George!"
"Hello, today's fine weather means it's going to be a fruitful day! Lille!"
"Praise Sif! I wish you a fruitful day."
Kenny kept talking to people along the way; most of them were familiar faces he had worked there for twenty years.
Sif is the Norse goddess of harvest. Since most of the trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange involves agricultural commodity options, many people like to say a compliment to Sif before starting a trade.
Although Kenny didn't believe in this, it didn't stop him from echoing others' opinions when they did.
The facade of the Chicago Board of Trade building is made of Indiana Grey stone, with its outline receding in layers from bottom to top.
Atop the tower stands a statue of Ceres, the god of grain, overlooking the city.
Although it's a statue of Ceres, not many people believe in Ceres. There's a rumor that those who believe in Ceres have a greater chance of making money.
Later, fewer and fewer people praised Celeste, except for a few very old traders. Compared to them, Kenny felt he was still young.
The words "Chicago Futures Exchange" are engraved in large English letters on the front of the building, above which is a huge clock.
"The futures indices for wheat, soybeans, and soybean meal have all been performing quite well lately." After sitting down, he glanced at the morning trading session before going to get some coffee.
Traders simply can't start their trading day without coffee.
There is a very strong correlation between soybean and soybean meal futures prices and pork futures prices. Analysts can use the price trends of soybean and soybean meal futures to predict pork futures prices, and even predict when the pork cycle will begin.
The recent surge in A-shares of pig farming companies in China's A-share market reflects traders' judgment that the bottom of the pig cycle is nearing its end, and the market is expected to rise slowly.
"The current trend in soybean meal prices is not over yet. Whether you look at the daily, weekly, or monthly charts, it's all in an upward trend."
"The upward trend with multiple bullish patterns is not going to end anytime soon."
The American soybean meal futures index has risen from a relative low of 309 in mid-October to 474.90 now.
The increase exceeded 50%.
Kenny is a trader specializing in soybeans and soybean meal. The market has been doing very well lately, with little volatility and prices rising steadily.
By focusing on the five-day moving average and trading around it to buy low and sell high, Kenny's trading skills over the years cannot be described as merely proficient; his expertise in this particular category alone makes him a master.
"It's so reliable, another sure profit. How wonderful it would be if I could make money while drinking coffee every day."
"Unfortunately, these good days won't last long. I must withdraw next month, no matter how tempting the market is. I must be out of the market next month."
I will not trade until the Fed decides on the number of rate hikes.
“There’s no need to go out into the sea and fight crocodiles when the environment is unstable,” Kenny knew very well.
As a veteran trader with over 20 years of experience, he has witnessed two previous Fed rate hikes. At such times, futures market volatility is extreme, making it unsuitable for a conservative trader like him.
Many years ago, trading on the Chicago Board of Trade was done offline, with orders placed by the fastest and loudest person to be executed first. A good voice was Kenny's key to getting his job.
Even after fully online electronic trading became possible, Kenny still preferred to trade at the Chicago Futures Building, because it was a place filled with his youth and memories.
The joy of every successful trade and the bitterness of every failed trade.
"The soybean meal index is rising today, so you can try to make a short-term trade based on sentiment."
Kenny thought to himself, "I should push the position up appropriately."
"It broke through the 485 line and held firm at that level! Great!"
"I don't know if we can hold the 490 mark today."
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) operates from 9:30 AM to 1:15 PM, Monday through Friday. Futures traders have very short working hours, and naturally, you need to be prepared for the psychological burden of the corresponding high risks.
Not everyone is qualified to make a living from futures trading. The qualifications here are not only financial knowledge and a keen sense of the financial market, but also courage—the courage to admit defeat and leave the market.
No futures trader has ever gone through a trading career without experiencing a margin call.
"Huh? Why is there such a sharp drop in price all of a sudden?"
"It pulled back again, then dropped rapidly, back to 474.9. What's going on today?"
"There's nothing particularly noteworthy coming out in the news."
Kenny remained calm as he drank his coffee, then watched as the soybean meal index plummeted, with the intraday candlestick chart returning to 450 points with almost no resistance.
Kenny almost spat his coffee onto his keyboard. He knew this wasn't the time to be stubborn, so he closed his position immediately. The short-selling pressure was too strong, so he closed it out.
I glanced at the transaction statement and realized that my profits from the past two months had been wiped out in just two minutes.
Kenny slapped himself twice hard. "I was fooled by the resistance that started to fall."
A candlestick pattern that shows a sharp drop followed by a sudden upward move could be a false breakout.
However, today's intraday candlestick chart only showed two instances of what appeared to be a false breakout, followed by a series of sharp intraday drops.
Kenny glanced at the America's soybean oil index, which was also plummeting, and the soybean index was also dropping. "What happened? Why are all the soybean-related indices suddenly dropping?"
"There must be some information that I don't know about; someone has gotten ahead of the curve!"
"Luckily, I don't like using leverage, otherwise I don't know how many people would have been liquidated just from this one trade."
He could already hear the shit and wails coming from the trading room next door.
Kenny glanced at the Telegram group chat, where traders were all asking what had happened and why soybean-related indices were all plummeting.
Everyone was frantically searching for news: which country's soybean production exceeded expectations, or whether the Federal Reserve was about to raise interest rates ahead of schedule.
The problem is that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates earlier than expected, all futures will fall, instead of only soybean-related futures indices falling as they are today.
After trading closed at 1:15 PM, Kenny packed his things, looking dejected, and prepared to go home. He had originally planned to get a steak, but now it seemed he would have to settle for a burrito.
"Cheap, wheat, and soybean futures prices all fell on the Chicago Board of Trade."
On that day, the most actively traded April corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade closed at $3.185 per bushel, down 18.5 cents, or 3.47%, from the previous trading day.
Wheat futures for April delivery settled at $5.165 per bushel, down 17.75 cents, or 2.48%, from the previous trading day.
The July soybean contract settled at $7.495 per bushel, down 105.75 cents, or 12.67%, from the previous trading day.
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