The Chinese government specifically transferred a group of elite personnel from top-tier, reputable futures companies in China to China Seed Group.
They initially thought they had been relegated to a lower-level position. After much deliberation, they wondered if they had done anything wrong. Why had they been transferred from a futures company to an agricultural company, specifically the China Seed Group, which they had never even heard of?
The first major task after arriving was to short soybeans on major international futures exchanges in conjunction with the release of the super soybean seeds.
With firsthand information, China's short-selling of soybeans was a resounding success, yielding a profit of nearly two billion US dollars, exceeding the total profit of China Seed Group since its inception.
All the traders present received a generous bonus.
As frontline traders, we are all shrewd and perceptive, and trading futures requires a high degree of sensitivity to all kinds of information.
From being transferred to China Seed Group to this short-selling of soybeans, the traders clearly realized that shorting soybeans was just the beginning. China Seed Group also has other super-quality varieties of crops waiting to be shorted.
With the help of super crops, one can achieve twice the results with half the effort in the futures market. Originally thought to be sent here, it turns out to be a great opportunity to show off one's skills.
The work was supposed to start at 9:30 pm, but many people arrived as early as 7:00 pm.
There is a time difference between Chicago and Beijing; 9 PM in Chicago is 11 PM in China.
Therefore, the working hours for futures traders are from 9:30 PM to 4:30 AM. As a result, the traders arrived at 7:00 AM.
Chen Jingrui was also aware of the higher-ups' positioning of China Seed Group: to make money through the financial sector and then use that money to subsidize the large-scale promotion of super seeds within China.
This is equivalent to using the money earned in the financial market to subsidize farmers in the vast rural areas of China, while also going to the countryside to promote super seeds.
The resistance to GMOs in China is not limited to farmers; many so-called cultural figures have also been promoting it extensively, with some even saying that GMO soybeans are a form of chronic sterilization.
It's claimed that since the introduction of genetically modified soybeans, sperm counts have decreased by 85% in Japanese men and 65% in Chinese men. I have no idea where this confidently asserted data came from; this is the first time I've heard of such statistics.
Even those with a certain level of education behave this way; not only do they not believe in GMOs themselves, but they also promote the negative aspects of GMOs extensively, and even maliciously smear them by fabricating information.
For example, Americans don't eat GMOs, but they deliberately sell GMO foods to Chinese people. You can find out by visiting an American shopping mall, or even if you can't go to America, you can find out by looking at the financial reports of American agricultural giants.
Following the approval of genetically modified soybeans for market release, domestic public opinion has been abuzz with discussion.
What are your thoughts on China's super soybeans?
"How should we view the approval of super soybeans for market sale? This is the first genetically modified seed in China to be approved for market sale."
Why did China suddenly open up to genetically modified technology?
What biological risks will the openness of genetically modified technology bring?
There are a lot of similar questions on Zhihu. Fortunately, most people on Zhihu support GMOs. On Weibo, the voices supporting GMOs and opposing GMOs are about equal.
In previous years, anti-GMO sentiment was dominant.
As for the headlines, they are filled with anti-GMO sentiments and all sorts of outrageous rumors.
Public debate will not affect the country's determination to promote super soybeans and a series of subsequent super crops.
Agriculture is the most basic guarantee for China. The reason why the red line for arable land is so important is to ensure the self-sufficiency of agricultural supply.
The reason why China chose to give the first Demon Brain to Shennong was to see if it could achieve some kind of breakthrough in the field of agriculture.
Judging from the current situation, Shennong has already exceeded their expectations. This can drive rural revitalization across China's vast rural areas and among farmers.
Rural revitalization can be achieved fundamentally when agriculture prospers, farmers' incomes increase, and food resources become more abundant in the market.
Not to mention the extra profits from futures market operations.
Back in the futures market, the Chicago Board of Trade opened the next day. Kenny's first reaction upon seeing the news last night was to bet on a rebound, as a 13-point drop was too much.
The underlying reasons are now fully understood: China's super soybeans triggered a surge in short-selling pressure in the market.
If China's advertised super soybeans are as expected, then future soybean production will be 40 percent higher than it is now. With such a large increase in supply, soybean prices will inevitably plummet.
The drop in futures prices is essentially a preemptive reaction to future soybean spot prices.
After careful consideration, Kenny placed a short order for wheat today.
He didn't know if there was any news that China hadn't released yet. If there wasn't, he could try to profit from a rebound today. If the downward trend in soybean futures continued, he couldn't see any signs of stabilization in the near future.
The reason for placing short orders on wheat is that super soybeans will lead to a surge in future spot prices.
However, this will take time, and soybean production will certainly not increase by as much as 40%, based on the current planting area.
Increased soybean production means lower soybean prices, which will reduce the willingness to grow soybeans and decrease the area planted with soybeans globally.
Arable land doesn't decrease for no reason; on the contrary, it increases year after year. The vacated arable land will then be used to grow other crops.
As one of the staple foods, wheat will certainly occupy a place in the vacant arable land area, so the increase in wheat arable land area will lead to an increase in wheat production.
Therefore, Kenny judged that wheat, corn, and other major grains would fall slightly, so he placed a short order as soon as he arrived in the morning to try his luck.
At times like these, prudence is the most important thing; there's no need to take unnecessary risks.
After the futures market opened, the soybean index rose slightly before falling all the way down. Yesterday it put up a fight, but this time it didn't fight back at all and just dropped to 5 points and stayed there.
Kenny could hear the sound of glass breaking in the next room.
"Luckily, I didn't try to gamble on a rebound."
Buying at the bottom only to find yourself halfway down the mountain, and mistaking a rebound for a reversal—these are common tactics employed by speculators. As for retail investors, they buy and sell haphazardly.
"Genetically modified soybeans developed by China have received official planting permission from the Argentine government, and super soybeans are about to arrive in Argentina."
Kenny saw this news on Wall Street News' live feed and finally understood why soybeans had plummeted again.
Argentina's super soybean cultivation poses a much greater threat than China's, as it is not only the world's third-largest soybean producer but also the largest exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal.
If Argentina decides to plant China's super soybeans, then super soybeans will be rapidly promoted in South America. If Brazil follows suit, soybean futures shouldn't expect to rise in the near future; they'll have to fall below previous support levels.
Kenny thought to himself, "This is a rare, major cycle. A cycle of this magnitude is bound to have a bottom. What I need to do now is to seize the opportunity when the bottom appears."
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