"That's really asking for death!"
At around 4 a.m., a time when most traders are drowsy, Chen Dong's cold shout instantly woke many traders up.
"Boss, isn't this the bot taking action?" someone asked, puzzled.
Upon hearing this, Chen Dong sneered, "The bot is naturally the most likely candidate, but don't forget, if they really wanted to drive up the price, why didn't they do it during the day? Why wait until so close to the peak to make their move?"
"In fact, every time the futures exchange rate falls to a certain level, they choose to intervene. But think about it carefully, how many hedging positions has BOT accumulated in the market since May? It's probably an astronomical number by now, isn't it?"
"If all of these were converted into US dollar foreign exchange reserves, how much foreign exchange reserves would they still have left to intervene? I think everyone here should be very clear about this. The number is definitely not much. I personally estimate that it will not exceed one billion US dollars at most. With that amount of money, the magnitude of the price increase will probably not be very high."
Upon hearing this, everyone was taken aback.
Chen Dong's words were not without reason. Looking back from May to now, the amount of US dollars used to drive up the market by BOT alone is an astronomical figure. Do they really have that much foreign exchange?
This is obviously impossible. So here's the question: what Chen Dong said at the meeting earlier, that the Thai government has actually been deceiving the world all along, and that their foreign exchange reserves are in a precarious state, is not an exaggeration, but a fact.
Wangcai pondered and said, "I also agree with the boss's point of view. At this time, the only reason for choosing to push up the price is short-term arbitrageurs.
Chen Dong gave Wangcai an approving look and then said, "Yes, it was indeed the work of arbitrageurs. They buy low and sell high to bots to make a profit. The reason I say they are courting death is because bots have very little money left. You see, the Thai baht will collapse as early as tomorrow."
No wonder Chen Dong made traders sell Thai baht so desperately; the root of the problem lies here.
One trader asked, puzzled, "Boss, I trust your judgment, but I feel that countries and regions like Singapore won't stand idly by. I'm afraid they'll make their move at this time, just like last time."
"Are you trying to say, 'If the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold'?"
The trader nodded shyly; that was exactly what he meant.
Southeast Asian economies have always been interconnected. If Thailand is being besieged by international speculative capital, can other regions be spared? Wrong. Not only will they not be spared, but they will also expose their main base to the outside world.
At least Thailand is there to hold the line. Take Singapore for example, its financial openness is much greater than Thailand's, and Thailand still has administrative intervention.
But try it in Singapore. Unless they don't want to be a global financial center, their policy of financial openness will absolutely not change.
Chen Dong nodded, but then poured cold water on his enthusiasm, saying, "What you said is true. If the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold. They will definitely try to help Thailand. However, if you look closely, you will find that the positions of Hong Kong dollars, Singapore dollars, and South Korean won in the market have all increased to varying degrees."
"Boss, you mean these are their next targets?"
Chen Dong smiled and said, "A currency crisis is never just a matter for one country. Judging from the currency crises that have already occurred, Europe has almost swept through all the countries pegged to the euro, except for Germany. Even the Swiss franc, which is not pegged to the euro and floats freely, requires intervention from the central bank. Not to mention the Mexican peso."
"Major South American markets such as Brazil and Argentina have also been affected to varying degrees. If it weren't for the US's intervention, these countries would probably have already fallen into an economic crisis."
"Therefore, in this crisis in Thailand, it's not that South Korea, Singapore, and other countries and regions didn't want to help, but that they couldn't. Their own monetary systems were under threat. At this time, choosing to help, I don't need to say more, you should know best what the consequences would be."
After listening to Chen Dong's analysis, everyone fell silent.
They had all noticed the unusual phenomena in the foreign exchange market, but none of them had ever been as bold as Chen Dong had imagined.
Even in private conversations, they all thought it unlikely, only trusting Chen Dong. But what Chen Dong said was simply shocking. How audacious must the capital market be to dare to attack a country—no, not just one country.
"Alright, it's getting late. You should all go and rest. We have a tough battle to fight tomorrow." Seeing that everyone was exhausted after a long night, and that trading in the Chicago and New York markets was relatively quiet with little activity, Chen Dong told them to go and rest.
Hearing Chen Dong's words, the crowd was still excited after his speech, and many were unwilling to leave. Only after being scolded by Wangcai did they reluctantly leave.
Seeing that everyone had almost left but Wangcai was still there, Chen Dong asked curiously, "What's wrong? Is there something else?"
"No, no." Wangcai scratched his head sheepishly and chuckled, "I'm just too excited to sleep."
Chen Dong slapped him on the shoulder, both amused and annoyed. "Alright, go to sleep. Everything will be clear tomorrow."
"Understood, boss."
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