Since Chen Ting started the case-solving group, he usually only tries to exchange new case-solving skills to solve the problem when he encounters a difficult problem that there is really no way to solve it in the later stages of the case.
As for the missing persons case in Baole City, Shen Ting actually did not expect that it would happen at the early stage of the case.
Moreover, he was required to exchange for the crime geographical profile at the very beginning of his involvement in the case.
That’s why!
Although I have read the introduction of the skills and confirmed that these skills are indeed very suitable for the current situation.
But when exchanging the money, he still felt a little unsure.
It’s just like falling in love, being suitable doesn’t necessarily mean there will be a result.
In addition, geographical profiling itself is closer to empirical science and is highly subjective. The key is that it requires higher standards for the particularity of the place involved.
Systematic skills, there will definitely be no problem.
But Shen Ting was worried that he would make mistakes when using it.
Alternatively, the existing locations involved in the case do not have the specificity to pinpoint the suspect's exact activity area.
Alternatively, the murderer in this case committed crimes randomly, making it unsuitable to use crime geographic profiling.
All of these can happen.
but!
All these anxieties and hesitations completely disappeared after successfully exchanging the geographical profile and digesting 70% to 80% of it.
"It should be fine."
Chen Ting was basically able to confirm that the suspected area could be identified through the thirteen locations involved in the case.
"As long as we can confirm that the suspected area is accurate enough, this case will be easy to handle."
The problem the three-person body-searching team encountered was that they didn't even have a rough range to search.
However, they felt that the scope defined by Zhang Song was not very reliable.
so!
As long as Shen Ting circles a more accurate location, the corpse-searching trio can use their expertise to find the place where the body was dumped or the murder scene.
It may even be possible to directly determine the murderer's residence and identify him.
Shen Ting naturally didn't dare to imagine the most ideal situation.
But even if the result is relatively bad, and only the murder scene is found, there is still a chance to find more physical evidence related to the case.
This is much better than the current suspended investigation status.
“Do you have a paper map of Baole City?
Let's analyze the missing location directly!"
Jiang Daoqing obviously knew something about geographical analysis and asked:
"Team Leader Shen, are we going to use a brand new map, or the one Xiao Zhang has marked?"
"A marked map is naturally better."
The first step in crime geographic profiling is naturally the collection and marking of crime locations.
Simply put, it means marking the precise geographical location of the place involved in the case on the map.
Zhang Song should not make any mistakes in this work.
Shen Ting took the map drawn by Zhang Song and immediately analyzed its spatial pattern.
That is, analyze the approximate distribution pattern of the places involved in the case, and try to find their distribution center or directional trend, which is the circular pattern that Zhang Song mentioned before.
This step is very important. Different spatial patterns not only reflect the murderer's different psychology.
It also corresponds to the next step, the selection of mathematical model.
By summarizing the characteristics of different series of cases such as robbery and murder, geographical profiling experts have developed a variety of different mathematical calculation models.
This is a special algorithm!
It is also the most critical step in criminal geographical profiling.
As long as the map and the location of the crime scene are input into the mathematical model, the possible activity area of the suspect can be calculated.
However, this general model has limited accuracy.
Just like standard weapons, they are definitely not as good as weapons that are carefully crafted according to personal characteristics and belong to a certain person.
The same is true for mathematical models.
In cases like this missing person case, which involves a single type of location, the error will be very large.
therefore!
A high-level geographical profiler like Zhang Song will build his own unique mathematical model based on his understanding of the criminal's psychology and geographical characteristics.
"Zhang Song is indeed not an ordinary person.
The mathematical model he built is quite accurate.”
However, it is definitely not comparable to the mathematical model provided by the system.
After studying the marked map, Shen Ting quickly completed the spatial pattern analysis and then selected a mathematical model.
A mathematical model is actually a set of analytical ideas.
Although Shen Ting does not have a ready-made program now, he can naturally complete the entire analysis process by using his own brain.
soon!
Shen Ting analyzed the high-probability areas, medium-probability areas, and low-probability areas of each suspect's activities.
High-probability areas, also called hot spots, require the most police resources for investigation.
The medium-probability area is an area where no findings were made in the high-probability area, or where there is excess police force for further investigation.
Low probability area, lowest priority.
Marking the three on the map with different colors is the final step in geographic profiling, generating a geographic profiling report.
…
In the conference room!
The police officers were somewhat anxious as they watched Shen Ting staring at the marked map in a daze.
"Can Team Leader Shen identify the suspicious area?"
“I wonder if there will be any difference from the area designated by Zhang Song?”
“It’s hard to say!
It's easy to circle an area, but the problem is that it has to be accurate enough!"
"Zhang Song is already a very good criminal geographer, otherwise, he wouldn't have been able to join Teacher Jiang's team.
Team Leader Shen’s ability to solve cases must be very strong.
But I don’t know if his geographical profile is any different from Zhang Song’s.”
Jiang Daoqing looked at Chen Ting and asked Zhang Song:
"How about it?
Can you see any clues?"
Zhang Song frowned slightly and shook his head:
“To be honest, I can’t tell!
Team Leader Shen did not use the mathematical model program, which means that he probably does not use geographical profiling very often.
Mathematical models are the most fundamental thing to test the level of geographical profilers.
Without being able to see his mathematical model, it is naturally impossible to understand Team Leader Shen’s analysis basis, process, focus, etc.
So, it’s hard to say.”
During the discussion, Chen Ting suddenly took out a red marker and circled a small area on the map of Baole City:
"This is a high-probability area!"
The police officers looked a little surprised when they saw this.
This is especially true for Zhang Song!
…
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