Chapter 419 Extra 1 (Two Ghosts Knocking on the Door)



Kansai fell into a disaster not seen in decades.

Kobe City in Hyogo Prefecture, Awaji Island, and cities between Kobe and Osaka were all severely damaged.

As part of the Osaka metropolitan area, Kobe's manufacturing output accounts for 13% of Japan's total, steel production accounts for 24%, and machinery manufacturing accounts for 19%.

But unfortunately.

This earthquake occurred in the Kansai region, and Kobe is one of the core areas.

For a while.

Water and electricity were cut off, traffic was paralyzed, and many small and medium-sized enterprise buildings in Kobe collapsed. It also affected other surrounding industrial areas and some ports, which were obviously temporarily stopped.

Plus the earthquake occurred in the early morning.

The entire Kansai region caused 6,000 deaths, 30,000 injuries, 300,000 homeless people, and 100,000 buildings were severely damaged or destroyed. The earthquake also caused 148 fires, burning 6,513 buildings and burning an area of ​​624,671 square meters (0.24 square miles). Including the loss of buildings, transportation systems and other infrastructure, the total loss was about 13 to 20 trillion yen (147 to 200 billion US dollars).

Rescue teams are moving in one after another.

Deal with the situation in the disaster area as quickly as possible.

The Cabinet also immediately counted the damage caused by the Great Hanshin Earthquake and held a mourning ceremony.

But the dead are gone.

The living must continue.

After the Ministry of Finance meeting.

The financial community also held an emergency meeting to provide necessary support for Hanshin's reconstruction work.

That day.

The Bank of Japan announced a rate cut.

The interest rate was lowered by 100 basis points to stabilize the economic turmoil caused by the Great Hanshin Earthquake and the loose monetary policy needed for economic recovery.

Singapore.

Barings Bank Singapore Branch.

General Manager's Office.

Nick Leeson, known as a genius trader in the international financial world, clenched his fists as he looked at the Nikkei trend on his computer.

"Everyone, the Kobe Earthquake is undoubtedly a good opportunity. Please seize the opportunity to establish another long position."

"Mr. Li Sen, did I hear you right? The Kobe earthquake caused Japan to lose hundreds of billions. It's time to establish a long position."

"Idiot! What is the economy? It is creation and consumption. If there is no consumption, how can there be creation? The Bank of Japan has cut interest rates by 100 basis points, and the signal that the currency has entered quantitative easing is very obvious. At the same time, the reconstruction of Kobe will require at least twice the amount of funds originally lost. Isn't this a great opportunity?"

Having said that.

Everyone present suddenly understood.

Admiration appeared in his eyes.

When Li Sen saw that others agreed, he, the general manager and chief trader of Bahrain Futures Company of Bahrain Bank in Singapore, also breathed a sigh of relief.

All along.

Li Sen is known for his steadiness and boldness.

In the Nikkei 225 futures contract market, he is known as "the invincible Leeson".

In the second half of 1994, Lee Sen concluded that the Japanese economy had begun to emerge from recession and the bubble economy had landed successfully based on the recovery of Japan's per capita wage earners' income, the consumer price index, and export share.

As the yen depreciates due to interest rate cuts and the US dollar strengthens due to interest rate hikes, Japan's exports will surely return to their peak and the stock market will have a big upward trend.

The basic logic is that the stock market is a barometer of the economy.

Nick Leeson bought a large number of Nikkei 225 index futures contracts and call options.

at this point.

Li Sen's analysis is undoubtedly correct.

But I don’t know why.

Japan's stock market did not rise, but fell by about 2,000 points. Lee Sen lost more than one billion US dollars and had to use an account of 88,888 to hide his losses.

And now the Kobe earthquake.

Many people have seen the economic losses caused by the earthquake, but have overlooked a very important message.

Does waste have value? This is an interesting question.

But if you understand that GDP comes from continuous circulation.

The answer becomes very clear.

The reason why European and American countries provide relief funds to useless homeless people is not because the capitalists are kind, but out of considerations of profit.

A waste.

It is also valuable.

Even if he does not produce anything, as long as he is alive he will consume, and this is his economic value.

So it is true that the Kobe earthquake brought shocks to the Japanese economy, but now the Japanese cabinet is investing heavily in reconstruction, which is bound to bring about a recovery in the economy.

really.

Just as Nick Leeson expected.

The following week.

The Japanese stock market has risen, with stocks of real estate and infrastructure companies seeing significant gains.

Coupled with the monetary easing policy of interest rate cuts, the Nikkei rebounded by six percent in the half month after the Kobe earthquake.

Right now.

Keio University Hospital.

Nao Nagano leaned on the hospital bed and listened to Shinichi Mito report on his recent work.

The situation is pretty bad.

Because the earthquake occurred in the Kansai region, which is Sanwa's base, many companies within the consortium suffered heavy losses.

Especially the two major groups, Hanshin and Hankyu.

Because the railway was overturned, it was out of service for half a month. Both the reconstruction and direct losses were astronomical.

But after hearing the news.

Nagano Nao couldn't help laughing.

Hankyu has always been indirectly controlled by Sakurako Ikeda, and has no chance to integrate Hanshin.

Now this is a great opportunity for integration that is simply delivered to our doorstep.

"At this critical moment, Mito-kun, please take over Hanshin. Only by integrating Hanshin and Hankyu can we rebuild the economy in the shortest possible time."

"Ha Yi!"

That day.

All-in-one insurance funds under Union Group swept through Hanshin shares.

In just one day, they bought 5 percent of the shares. According to securities rules, this share ratio is considered a hostile takeover.

Hanshin Shrine President Oshihara held a press conference.

He cursed Almighty Insurance as a barbarian who had no idea about business and said that if it controlled Hanshin, it would only bring disaster to Hanshin.

But what's interesting is that.

Hanshin cursed the barbarians for invading.

However, shareholders angrily scolded Prince Ishihara as incompetent and useless.

During the years he has been president, Hanshin's stock price has remained largely unchanged. Now someone is trying to raise the stock price so that everyone can make some money, but this jerk doesn't want everyone to make money. He is so despicable.

Outside discussion.

Nagano Nao didn't take it seriously.

They have also set their sights on Sekisui Chemical's industry.

The earthquake caused explosions at several Sekisui Chemical plants, and a five-year oil purchase contract expired.

There were only two choices before Sekisui: borrow money from Sanwa Bank or renew the contract with Naoio Nagano.

The conditions for renewal are.

Give up thirty percent of the shares.

However, Sanhe Bank is now in a desperate situation. All banks have suffered heavy losses due to the earthquake, and can only watch Youlian acquire Sekisui Chemical.

However, Nagano Nao was not wiped out.

Taking into account the brotherly relationship, Toyo Shinkin Bank and Sanwa Bank, both subsidiaries of UFJ, jointly invested to establish Sanwa UFJ.

Brothers who had become enemies suddenly became best brothers again.

February 1st.

Several Japanese ministers came to visit.

After listening to the work report.

Nao Nagano immediately issued an order to sell the stock shares held by the company fund and tried his best to suppress all listed companies in the Kansai region.

But now Nagano Naoio is the real powerful person in the company, and no one dares to refute him.

Almost at the same time.

All major banking institutions also sold off their chips.

Half a month after the earthquake, the Nikkei suddenly plummeted, falling by 20% in just one week.

Singapore.

Nick Leeson was stunned when he saw the loss of 6 billion US dollars in his account.

He just couldn't understand.

Why is the stock market falling into such a bearish state even though the Bank of Japan is cutting interest rates, easing monetary policy, and investing massive amounts of money in Kobe's reconstruction?

Poor guy never realized.

Japan's real estate has financial attributes and is equivalent to a reservoir of monetary policy. The same is true for the stock market. Both are tools of Japan's money market, used as a buffer zone to accommodate monetary easing.

At that time.

The yen was forced to appreciate.

Naturally, it is necessary to push up real estate and stock markets to prevent inflation from affecting people's lives.

But Japan has always been very clear that the foundation of its country is manufacturing. Now that the US dollar is strongly raising interest rates, the purpose of Japan's interest rate cut is to devalue and restore export trade. Naturally, all the water must be squeezed out and flow into the market.

In this way.

It would be strange if the stock market didn’t fall sharply.

Faced with losses in the account that exceed the unbearable range.

Li Sen didn't even have time to close his positions in his account and boarded a fleeing plane with his subordinates.

Until Barings Bank discovered something was wrong.

The account has lost $110 million.

This ancient bank, which had been serving the royal family for a hundred years, was bankrupted by traders in just one month.

Next.

The US dollar once again strongly raised interest rates by 100 basis points.

Such a large-scale interest rate hike has begun to have a significant blood-sucking effect on global capital.

Massive capital inflows into the United States pushed the dollar up by 100 basis points.

However, Japan cut interest rates again, as low as 1.5%. A large amount of funds flowed out of the market from banks, causing the yen to depreciate to 1:126.

This day.

Because the semiconductor company jointly developed by Sony and Samsung has started construction.

As one of the shareholders, Nao Nagano brought his family on this trip and visited scenic spots in South Korea.

Little Japan's clothes.

You can be recognized wherever you go.

A guy looked at the little Japanese and laughed deliberately: "Dude, do you know? Japan is going to be finished soon. The yen has depreciated to 126. It is estimated that it will soon lose its position as the second largest economy!"

"How can a country like Japan be a rival to the Republic of Korea? In ten years at most, Japan will decline into a developing country, and Korea will become the only developed country in Asia."

In order to deliberately provoke Nagano Nao and his group of little Japanese.

Several Koreans were speaking English, laughing.

The people with Naoto Nao looked very strange. They looked at each other and someone muttered, "Are these guys idiots? Don't they understand that their end is coming?"

"The overall educational level in South Korea is low, and it is difficult for people to go out and see the outside world, so they are probably no different from frogs in a well!"

"Even so, working six days a week and earning that little, where does the confidence come from?"

This question.

Nagano Nao didn't know how to answer.

South Korea still has a six-day work week.

One of our requests for investing this time is that we hope South Korea will protect the rights of workers and promote the global five-day, eight-hour work week.

But these Koreans are laughing at themselves, and I don’t know what’s going on in their minds.

perhaps.

There are no such stupid creatures in the animal kingdom!

He shook his head secretly.

Standing at today's height, he has long known that with Japan's technological level, once the yen depreciates, what kind of terrible suppression will be brought to Asia.

Combined with the US dollar's blood-sucking of financial assets.

This will be the most horrific plunder and invasion in modern times. 1996.

The US dollar has stopped raising interest rates, but the strong bulls of the US dollar have become prominent, moving from 79 to a strong high of 111 points.

The Japanese yen is still falling, especially with the sluggish stock market and the continued decline in real estate. A property in Tokyo has depreciated to the price of a pair of leather shoes.

Even worse is that in Tokyo's 23 wards, a large number of properties have become junk, and countless investors are facing overdue payments and bank accountability. Even if they have paid off the mortgage for many years, they will still be in debt if they sell it.

It's like the sea surface is being squeezed by depth.

The outflow of funds from the stock market and real estate pushed the exchange rate of the US dollar to 1:140 against the Japanese yen.

Suddenly.

Koreans found themselves inexplicably unemployed.

The market was invaded by Japanese goods.

Korean factories are unable to sell their products, and are laying off employees and cutting wages on a large scale. Many people are vying for one job, even if the salary is reduced by 20%.

Demonstrations boycotting Japanese goods broke out.

A large number of Sony tape recorders, Canon color TVs, Panasonic air conditioners, and Toyota cars were smashed.

However, such violent acts could not prevent the dumping of high-quality and low-priced Japanese goods. The ridicule of Japan a year ago was a complete defeat for the Korean manufacturing industry in the face of absolute technology.

Thailand.

Central bank.

As Japan's trade exports grew, Thailand's export trade volume declined, and as early as a year ago, it had turned from a surplus to a deficit.

And in the long run.

Because of the fixed exchange rate, the central bank has to deal with the carry trade between the Japanese yen and the Thai baht, and the hard-earned foreign exchange has been flowing out on a large scale, leaving less than 20 billion US dollars.

Keeping the house and the exchange rate has become a difficult choice.

If the exchange rate is maintained.

Imports can be cheaper.

But housing prices in Bangkok are already a major component of GDP and a powerful tool for labor transformation. If houses cannot be preserved, recession is inevitable.

The problem is that many companies have been forced to lay off employees and cut salaries due to poor sales.

This will continue.

I'm afraid the real estate can't be saved.

suddenly.

Trader reports.

In the spot market, large quantities of Thai baht are being sold at a price of 1:25 yuan, and at the same time, large-scale short positions are being established in the offshore futures market.

BOT immediately ordered a buy-up and stabilized the market at the cost of $4 billion.

Wall Street, USA.

Quantum Fund.

Druckenmiller Stanley Druckenmiller looked at the Thai baht position that was forced to close, with a hint of amusement on his face.

This time, the test of the Thai baht resulted in a loss of 50 million US dollars.

However, judging from Thailand’s current share of trade exports, Thailand’s foreign exchange will dry up in a year at most.

The other side.

With the powerful force of Youlian UFJ, Hanshin acquired 38% of its shares in just half a month.

Using her power as the largest shareholder, Sakurako Ikeda directly dismissed the management team led by Hanshin President Oshihara.

Another month later, Hanshin Electric Railway and Hankyu Holdings merged to form Hanshin Hankyu Holdings, becoming the third largest group after Sanwa and Youlian.

Mitsui and Sumitomo suddenly discovered.

Times seem to have changed.

By leveraging the power of Internet finance, Youlian Group has controlled one-third of the country's micro loans in just a few years.

Sanhe Bank has the largest business scope for small and medium-sized enterprises. If they continue to develop, a super financial institution will be born that even a large corporate alliance cannot compete with.

This is more terrible than controlling business rights because controlling all small and medium-sized enterprises is equivalent to monopolizing the living environment at the grassroots level.


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