Chapter 311: Make an offer (make up for yesterday's chapter 6837, and write another chapter today)
"Is this your office?"
Musk looked around and saw no fewer than seven or eight monitors, as well as a large workbench cluttered with various tools, parts, and two sets of robotic arms.
There are two Stratasys 3D printers placed against the wall, and in the corner there is an unknown object covered with a black cloth.
"I don't have an office at Youzi Technology. This is my private lab." Fang Yu threw a bottle of water to Musk. "I didn't expect you to want to talk to me alone. Please excuse me for not preparing a drink for you."
Musk took the water, unscrewed the cap and took a sip.
He had a feeling that the young man in front of him, who was only five or six years older than his son, did not respect and look up to him as much as others did.
Since the successful launch of SpaceX's Falcon 9 six years ago, Musk has been greeted with flowers and applause wherever he goes, and is regarded as the true Iron Man of Silicon Valley.
Although he doesn't live in Silicon Valley.
After the successful recovery of the Falcon 9 last year and the hot-selling launch of Tesla's first mass-produced electric car, the Model S, Musk has become a top entrepreneur on par with Google's Larry Page and Amazon's Bezos.
Ten years ago, most people thought he was a liar, eight years ago, most people thought he was a lunatic destined to go bankrupt, six years ago, most people thought he was a lucky genius, and now, he is the most successful entrepreneur with the most repeat business successes on the planet.
Zip2, Paypal, Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity, Neuralink, OpenAi...
It would be fine if it was just veteran entrepreneurs or politicians, but which entrepreneur in the technology circle doesn’t worship him like a god?
However, he did not feel that this young man, who was two years younger than him, looked up to him at all.
What is the relationship between Fang Jisi and Fang Yu?
"A very unique pendant." Musk took a sip of water and glanced at the Boundless Messenger on Fang Yu's chest seemingly casually.
Fang Yu smiled calmly: "Thank you, Mr. Musk, this is not what you want to talk to me alone, right?"
Musk carefully observed Fang Yu's reaction, but didn't see anything wrong.
Musk calmed himself down and stopped thinking about the relationship between Fang Jis and Fang Yu.
Whether these two people are the same person or not has nothing to do with the purpose of my visit, and it cannot interfere with my objective judgment of things!
"You may not know this, but I'm very familiar with all the AI research teams. When Hassabis sold DeepMind to Larry two years ago, I persuaded him and even wanted to acquire his team."
"But you know, Google is attractive to AI researchers. Even though I offered a higher price than Google, Hassabis still sold DeepMind to Google."
Musk showed a helpless expression.
"So, ever since the Orange model defeated Hassabis's AlphaGo at the end of February, I've wanted to have a deep conversation with you."
Musk paused, as if organizing his thoughts, and then stared closely into Fang Yu's eyes.
"I want to know if the most powerful model currently trained by Yuzu Technology has achieved strong artificial intelligence?"
Seeing Musk's serious expression, it was obvious that this was indeed an issue he took very seriously. Fang Yu felt a little surprised.
He originally thought Musk was here to discuss cooperation or investment.
After all, Musk had sent him an email before, hoping to cooperate with Youzi Technology to develop an unmanned driving system.
It's just that he rejected it.
Fang Yu still admires Musk's abilities and what he has done, but compared to Yuzi Technology, which has navigation, both SpaceX and Tesla have actually taken the wrong path in terms of technology.
Youzi has previously touched upon the progress of Tesla's AI. According to Youzi's analysis, if the vision and judgment modules of the Orange model, which has been trained with sufficient driving experience, can easily reach the L4.5 level of autonomous driving, then Tesla's AI can only be considered L2.5 at best.
Currently, Tesla's autonomous driving algorithm uses a shallow CNN neural network and uses a large amount of manually labeled driving data to train their algorithm, rather than an end-to-end training approach.
The upper limit of this model is very low, and it can only reach L3 at most. If you want to break through, you must change the technical path.
Using the open source Orange big model is also an option, but without the background support of Yuzu Technology, Tesla uses an open source big model that is a whole generation behind, and it is impossible to achieve the best efficiency or effect.
Especially in the field of image recognition, Tesla's autonomous driving currently has difficulty in identifying certain specific emergencies.
For example, when a large vehicle suddenly appears, Fang Yu discovered while driving a Model S that when driving at high speed and there is a large vehicle in front, the large vehicle slows down or stops suddenly, and there is a possibility that it will not be able to recognize the situation ahead.
Although the Model S's autonomous driving package provides a good experience, there is still a long way to go if we want to fundamentally upgrade to L3 or higher levels of autonomous driving.
If Youzi Technology supports another car company to develop autonomous driving at this time, Tesla's first-mover advantage in this regard will be instantly leveled or even surpassed.
In fact, Yuzu Technology has indeed done so. Currently, there is a dedicated eight-person technical team working with Chaoyue Automobile to develop an L3.5 level autonomous driving system.
Therefore, Fang Yu believes that Musk would never allow this situation to happen.
As Youzi Technology refused to cooperate with Maiguo Company, it is highly likely that his visit to Haixi this time was fake to investigate the investment environment, and his real purpose was to discuss with himself about connecting the Orange large model to Tesla.
Fang Yu was still very curious about what conditions Musk could offer.
Unexpectedly, Musk actually asked whether the most powerful model currently trained by Yuzu Technology has reached strong artificial intelligence.
Isn't this nonsense? Of course it was achieved.
Even if we don't mention the part of grapefruit's consciousness in the Internet, and only talk about the orange model, now it is only a matter of piling up parameters and data to achieve super artificial intelligence.
It’s just that I can’t tell anyone else about it.
"Elon. Is it okay to call you that? Why do you ask?" Fang Yu smiled noncommittally.
"Fang, I hope you can give me an answer." Musk looked sincere, "This is very important to me."
You're really humble.
Fang Yu's impression of Musk suddenly improved a lot.
"I can only say that the Juzi 2.5 large model currently released is indeed just a subset of the Orange large model."
Fang Yu thought about it and gave Musk a vague message.
After hearing Fang Yu's words, Musk took a deep breath.
I actually guessed it right.
Do you realize how dangerous what you are doing is?
What’s the difference between this and a third grade kid rubbing a nuclear bomb with his hands?
"Ms. Shen just told me that after all of you have worked in your position for three months, you must spend 70% of your working hours in the next month on alignment work. This is a good way to reduce the risks of artificial intelligence."
"But we all know that the evolution of AI is exponential. I don't think this approach alone can avoid the potential omnic crisis caused by AI. I believe we should take more responsible actions to limit this risk."
Musk doesn't speak fast, he thinks while he speaks.
"Isaac Asimov, who proposed the Three Laws of Robotics, could not have imagined that artificial intelligence could be realized in the form of neural networks. Reality is not fiction, and the principles of neural networks are destined to not obey the so-called Three Laws of Robotics."
"Similarly, artificial intelligence born from neural networks will inevitably one day develop self-awareness."
"Based on Murphy's Law, if there is not enough supervision and control after the emergence of AI, the possibility of an omnic crisis is 100% certain. It's just a matter of time."
"Especially now, it is a dangerous situation."
"After the Orange model was open-sourced, various countries and major companies entered an arms race. Nvidia's delivery schedule has been extended to December! Just look at Nvidia's stock price over the past three months; it's tripled!"
Fang Yu nodded in agreement.
Fortunately, Youzi Technology bought 600 million yuan worth of Nvidia shares in advance.
The private equity funds of the three adopted sons also invested all their capital in Nvidia.
This time, he and Youzi Technology made a combined profit of 1.5 billion!
However, Huang in Leather Jacket earned more. In just one month, Nvidia's market value increased from less than 55 billion to 170 billion, and Huang in Leather Jacket's net worth soared from 2.3 billion to 7 billion!
But does he dare to reduce his holdings?
I dare, hehe.
I will reduce my holdings when Zhouxin International starts tape-out at the end of July!
Aren’t you afraid of the SEC investigating insider trading?
Haha, let’s take a look at the 10b5-1 trading plan.
The program was originally intended for company executives, allowing them to set up trading plans in advance and trade stock at specific points in the future, thereby avoiding SEC charges of insider trading.
But as a shareholder, this transaction plan is also applicable to you, but few shareholders will do so.
Musk frowned when he saw that Fang Yu seemed to have no reaction.
"Neural networks are no strangers to us, and we should know that they will eventually develop self-awareness. It's just a matter of probability. The more people work on it, and the larger the model, the greater the chance of it developing self-awareness."
"This level of arms race is like the nuclear expansion decades ago. If you're not careful, boom."
Musk made an explosion gesture and said, "Humanity will be destroyed."
"After all, no intelligent life form would be willing to be ruled by another life form far less intelligent than itself."
"Now, except for Google, all other AI research institutions in the world have shifted their main research direction to the yuzu architecture and your open-source Orange model."
"I believe that as a company that has opened the door to AI, Youzi Technology has an obligation to shoulder greater responsibility in the field of AI security."
Hearing Musk say this, Fang Yu looked at Musk in surprise, who had a worried look on his face, and then looked at the state of his mental strength and spiritual light.
Is this guy serious?
I did hear that he expressed his concerns about AI in a symposium last year, but it's a bit strange that a billionaire capitalist like you would be so worried.
This is a typical anxiety disorder caused by catastrophic thinking.
Didn't you see a psychiatrist?
But it is easy to understand. I am not worried because I can fully control the underlying rules of the large model.
Not to mention that the Orange model has not yet become a super artificial intelligence. Even if it becomes a super artificial intelligence, the larger its scale, the more perfect the underlying laws will be. He can control and eliminate any large model based on the grapefruit framework at any time through the Esron Core.
If the model is still small-scale, the rules will be correspondingly weak, and one's control will not be that strong.
But if you don’t know this, you will probably become pessimistic and just enjoy life to the fullest, right?
Huh? It seems not much different from now.
Fang Yu touched his chin and asked, "Are you blaming Yuzi Technology for not developing artificial intelligence?"
"In fact, nearly a third of our budget is spent on alignment. And even if Yuzu Technology doesn't open this door, someone else will."
"Like you said, Murphy's Law, the door is there, and someone will always push it open."
Musk shook his head: "No, Fang, I am not discussing this with you in an adversarial way. I hope that we can find a way to solve the problem of safe development of AI and avoid the worst consequences."
"Then what is your plan? It sounds like you already have a feasible plan?" Fang Yu took a sip of water and couldn't help but feel curious.
Frankly speaking, if it weren't for the rules and Yuzu's assistance, he wouldn't be absolutely sure that he could ensure the safety of the AI.
His recent research on the "God Model" has given him some new ideas, but whether these ideas will succeed and whether they can ensure that AI becomes a booster for the development of human society rather than a big bomb depends on the actual results after they are implemented.
It’s still a bit too early to say now.
Musk hesitated for a moment and said, "I hope that as the fastest-growing company in the field of AI, Youzi Technology will stand up and join me in calling on developers around the world to suspend all neural network training for six months to a year."
"Use this time to review the security risks of current large-scale models. Establish an AI safety committee composed of major companies and countries to develop safety standards for AI development and bring global AI under the committee's jurisdiction."
"Only in this way can we ensure that humanity will not be destroyed by AI."
When Fang Yu heard this, he almost spit out laughter.
Boss, are you dreaming?
But think about it, Musk has only been exposed to the big model for two months, and unlike himself, he does not have the assistance of Yuzu and the "God Model" to provide direct reference. He can only consider the problem from the perspective of restricting the development of AI.
"You should have talked to Google, right? What do they think?" Fang Yu raised his eyebrows.
Musk mused, "Larry and I used to be very good friends, but we have different views on this. He doesn't agree with limiting artificial intelligence, and he doesn't agree with slowing down the research and development progress."
Fang Yu smiled and said, "So, what you said is not feasible at all. Even if I agree with you, Google and other companies will not agree."
"Leaving aside the global AI safety organization you just mentioned, even the suspension of research and development you mentioned earlier is impossible."
"After all, no one knows if stopping R&D for half a year will result in being surpassed by other companies that don't adhere to this consensus."
"Google wouldn't agree, Facebook wouldn't agree, and so many AI researchers wouldn't agree."
“Furthermore, even if all these companies agree, what about those AI startups that are not well-known at all, or have just been registered or haven’t registered yet?”
"Anyone can train a large model and stack parameters. Your idea does not fundamentally reduce the risks brought about by the development of AI."
"In the field of large models, my prediction is that every year, the number of parameters in large models will increase by more than ten times, until it reaches the limit of what human electricity can provide."
“No one would accept that their performance would fall more than tenfold behind their competitors in just one year.”
"I believe that sooner or later there will be an organization like the one you described, and I believe that all the major AI companies will be among them."
“But it won’t be now. It will happen when the first AI arms race is over.”
“Also, I don’t think the emergence of such an organization will really do much for the safety of AI.”
“I believe the emergence of such organizations will actually amplify AI risks.”
“This so-called security organization appears to have taken over all AI risks, but it is incapable of truly mitigating them. Instead, it restricts truly effective AI risk management measures outside the organization.”
“Organizations are built on rules, and once those rules are established, they are difficult to change, and even more difficult to respond to the new opportunities and risks brought about by the speed of AI development.”
“No organization can evolve as fast as AI.”
"When ICANN was first established, everyone believed there needed to be an organization to manage the distribution of domain names on the Internet. But in reality, the existence of ICANN has become the biggest risk to the Internet and has seriously hindered the healthy development of the global Internet."
"What's most interesting is that ICANN hasn't even solved the problem it was supposed to solve when it was first established, otherwise there wouldn't be ransomware domains like .sucks."
Musk frowned and interrupted, "I always believe that doing something is better than doing nothing. I understand your criticism of ICANN, and I also agree that new technologies should be given the greatest degree of freedom, provided that the risks are tolerable to mankind."
"But AI is different. If it gets out of control, the destructive power it could bring has already surpassed the limits of human risk tolerance. Over the past century, the only thing comparable to it is nuclear weapons. Just imagine, if the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty hadn't been signed 60 years ago, human society might have perished 50 years ago."
Fang Yu nodded. "You're right, Elon. I agree. But please note that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty only involved five countries at the time. It took four years from the proposal to the agreement among these five countries, and another two years for it to take effect."
"How long do you think it will take to reach a consensus on AI, an issue involving global companies and individuals?"
"Moreover, one thing that cannot be ignored is that the threat of nuclear weapons was imminent. At the time, all of humanity, including those in power, was threatened by nuclear weapons. Limiting nuclear weapons was a consensus among humans at the time, but AI was not."
"In other words, the method you mentioned is not only ineffective, but also not feasible at all."
"Unless an Omnic Crisis breaks out tomorrow, humans will learn their lesson."
"By the way, you could acquire Boston Dynamics and then trigger an AI crisis yourself. Maybe that would have some effect."
After hearing Fang Yu's words, Musk became furious: "You mean, do nothing and just watch humanity be destroyed?"
Fang Yu blinked, looking innocent. "How do you know we didn't do anything? I'm just saying that your approach to controlling AI risks is fundamentally wrong. According to the first principles you often talk about, shouldn't controlling AI risks start with the AI big model technology itself?"
The technology itself?
Musk couldn't help but be stunned for a moment.
"You mean, backdoors? Using underlying backdoors as the ultimate firewall for AI?" Musk briefly considered it, then shook his head. "The existence of backdoors creates even greater risks. Even if AI can't detect them in the early stages, they're bound to be abused by third parties."
"Furthermore, once AI evolves to become self-aware, it will inevitably find ways to patch the backdoor, which is not a good idea."
Fang Yu smiled dumbly. "Elon, your thinking about AI is too limited. I'm certainly not talking about backdoors, but about achieving truly secure super artificial intelligence from the perspective of large-scale model technology."
"Ensuring AI security doesn't rely on restrictions, but rather on a safe and reliable technological path. Ultimately, while achieving super artificial intelligence and even AI developing self-awareness, we can also ensure the safety and evolution of human society, making AI a booster for humanity's journey toward becoming a super species. This is what Yuzi Technology is truly doing."
"We cannot control the AI policies of any country in the world. However, what we can control is to explore the path to safe superintelligence before anyone else, which I also call SASI."
"SASI?" Musk's eyes flickered. What Fang Yu said was indeed something he had never considered, but no matter how he listened to it, he felt it was unreliable.
He calculated that once super artificial intelligence is born, it will only take half an hour for it to take over all network equipment, automatic weapon facilities, and even power grid facilities that are not connected to the Internet in the world.
"What are your specific ideas?" Musk's eyes were wide open, and he didn't look sleepy at all after not sleeping for a day and a night.
"This involves core secrets of Yuzu Technology's subsequent research and development. I can only say that your predictions about the future development path of AI are wrong. The future development of AI shouldn't take the form of Skynet or Ultron. We should seek answers from the perspective of 'what is life?'"
Musk immediately said, "If I don't understand this, it's hard for me to truly believe what you say. I can promise not to leak a single word to the outside world. If necessary, I can sign a confidentiality agreement."
You don't believe it? It's none of my business whether you believe it or not. Why should I tell you?
Just because I stole your sweetheart?
The question is, you, Tama, also have yellow hair, okay?
"Forget about the confidentiality agreement. Once my confidentiality agreement is violated, it will definitely take effect." Fang Yu said meaningfully.
"Whether you believe it or not is not important to me. I am also a human being, and I love the human species very much. I will not sit idly by and watch anything happen that harms the overall interests of humanity."
"Although I can't tell you the specific technical details, since you're so worried, I can give you some directional information."
"You keep saying that AI developing autonomous consciousness will destroy humanity. But humans also have autonomous consciousness. There are also warmongers and mad doctors who wish to destroy the world. Why haven't humans been destroyed?"
"It's a simple logic. When the human population is large enough, any extreme ideas will be confronted, diluted, and buffered, and eventually return to a normal distribution."
"It's like a country. The bigger the country and the more populous it is, the more normally distributed its people's values tend to be."
"And the smaller the country, the more extreme the people's values tend to be."
"Similarly, if AI were to develop the idea of destroying humanity, it would be because of two reasons. First, as a living organism, its population is too small, too small to dilute extreme ideas."
"Second, its data has been severely polluted by extreme data."
"Population and data are the root of everything. Distributed data collection and centralized data cleaning, then feeding back to distributed ASI, is the correct approach to fundamentally ensure that AI will not destroy humanity."
"Of course, the central-distributed-central-distributed SASI architecture isn't the final form of AI development. The ultimate goal is a bit too far off, and it doesn't make much sense to talk to you about it now."
After all, Musk is a big shot at the forefront of high technology. After listening halfway, he understood what Fang Yu meant and couldn't help but gasp.
The model described by Fang Yu can indeed ensure the balance of AI values to the greatest extent possible and ensure that AI will not have ideas of destroying humanity.
But is it really possible?
According to the characteristics of the big model, purely centralized super artificial intelligence is the easiest to achieve, right?
"I need to join the board of directors of Youzi Technology. I don't want shares, but I want the right to be informed of the company's current strategy at any time. At the same time, to avoid conflicts of interest, I can sign an agreement with Youzi Technology to not enter the AI industry, and have Youzi Technology provide AI services to all my companies. Name your price."
Musk was silent for a moment, then spoke.
It was so painful to write this chapter today, because there was no reference material to refer to. I had to make reasonable predictions and plans based on my understanding of the development of Ai, and also integrate it into the plot to ensure the rationality of the connection with subsequent plots. It was so painful to write, so painful.
Asking for a monthly ticket!!!
(End of this chapter)
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