Chapter 222: Announced in Advance (First update of 4000 words!)
A 42% winning rate does not mean that there is still a 40% chance of winning, but it means that if the opponent does not make any mistakes, you will definitely lose.
Is alphaGo really going to lose? And lose with white?
You should know that in DeepMind's internal evaluation, in the modern rules where Black has a handicap of 7.5 points, it is equivalent to Black having lost a piece of territory before the game even starts, and White's winning rate is significantly higher than Black's.
In machine games, alphaGo has a winning rate of over 55% when playing with white pieces against itself.
In fact, the human Go community has had the same view in recent years, especially after Gu Jie's rise to prominence.
Last year, Gu Jie lost only one game with white pieces, with a win rate of 97% for white pieces. However, his win rate with black pieces suddenly dropped to 60%.
And now, AlphaGo is about to lose when playing with white?
And they lost without any bugs?
Can't win.
When Black's flying move in the 125th move split White's pieces again, even Hassabis, who was only an amateur 4th dan, could see that White's disadvantage in the whole game was already very obvious.
After White's 146th move, AlphaGo's self-assessed winning rate had fallen below 12%.
But AlphaGo is still trying its best to resist, but everyone can see that there is no hope.
Its opponent is too powerful!
How is it possible!?
How could there be such a chess player?
Hassabis was completely baffled.
Huang Shijie, who kept placing white chess pieces, also couldn't understand it.
He is an amateur 6th dan and the actual developer of AlphaGo. No one understands AlphaGo's chess skills better than him. Even when facing a top chess player like Lee Se-sil, he can confidently say that his understanding of AI thinking is more accurate than Lee Se-sil's.
But now, Huang Shijie completely cannot understand his opponent's chess moves, and he dare not say that he can understand AlphaGo's thinking.
Even after dozens of moves, he still couldn't understand why both sides played the way they did. He only knew that somehow, Black seemed to have the upper hand.
Why are many of the moves I use never seen before?
Is the person opposite really a human being?
No, even AI needs to learn from human chess records. Its moves have not really deviated from the scope of human thinking. It just explores human moves to the extreme.
But now, the moves used by this opponent, whether in terms of layout or local patterns, are completely different from the existing routines of humans.
Unless... the opponent is really an AI, and has never learned any human tricks, and has mastered the game only by playing against itself, learning by itself, and reasoning by itself!
Huang Shijie was shocked by his own thoughts.
If his guess is true, it means that the other party is not only ahead of Deepmind in training, but also far behind Deepmind in algorithms!
They had previously considered letting alphaGo play completely against itself to master Go, but the results were very poor.
In the experiment, they found that the policy gradient algorithm used by alphaGo had serious instability in balancing the exploration of new strategies and the use of known strategies, which made it impossible for the AI to consider the advantage of winning or losing from the perspective of the overall advantage.
Moreover, the noise in the winning and losing signals of Go is too strong. Without the guidance of existing knowledge at the initial stage, the model will not be able to learn effectively in the initial training stage.
In addition, it is also necessary to solve the problem of "catastrophic forgetting" of neural networks and the problem of a large number of random moves without an initial strategy.
It can be said that any of these problems may require a lot of manpower and material resources and extremely smart brains to spend several months to solve.
In particular, "catastrophic forgetting", the phenomenon of forgetting old knowledge after learning new knowledge, is very common in the field of deep learning. It can be said that the entire deep learning field has not yet found a good way to deal with catastrophic forgetting caused by various reasons.
In the end, the alphaGo team could only use human chess records to train alphaGo. When it grew to a certain level, they let it play against itself and evolve iteratively.
And now this opponent...
I wish he were human.
Although Huang Shijie did not need to consider the complex changes on the chessboard, beads of sweat still appeared on his forehead.
——
"Hey, everyone, why do you look so bad?" Sergey Brin and Larry Page had just rushed back to the monitoring room when they saw that everyone in DeepMind had a grim face and was staring silently at the dozen or so monitors placed side by side on the table.
"The white pieces are in danger. It looks like the opponent is about to surrender." Sergey Brin can also play Go, and his level is pretty good, with an amateur level of one or two dan. He can tell at a glance that the white pieces are in danger.
"Hey, be happy, you made history! Guys, defeating Lee Se-sil 3-0 is not a failure of mankind, but another victory of mankind!" Sergey Brin patted the shoulder of David Silva, who was closest to him.
As soon as he said this, David Silva's face became even uglier.
The monitoring room was even quieter.
"Sergey, alphaGo... is the white chess piece." Hassabis squeezed out a sentence with difficulty.
AlphaGo is playing with white pieces? Sergey Brin was stunned. He took a closer look at the screen and saw that AlphaGo was playing with white pieces.
"Did the opponent find a bug?" Larry Page doesn't understand Go, but he is also very clear about the strength of AlphaGo. In previous simulated games, it is almost impossible for AlphaGo to lose unless the opponent finds a bug.
"No," David Silva said stubbornly. "The opponent played very strange moves today. Three of the first 30 moves were beyond AlphaGo's prediction range. By move 53, although the opponent still made unusual moves, AlphaGo's response was still reasonable based on the value network."
David Silva frowned and glanced at the two bosses. "After today's game, we'll analyze this game again. Only then will we know what went wrong with AlphaGo."
Sergey Brin scratched his messy hair. "Are you saying that the opponent's chess skills have surpassed AlphaGo? Is there such a chess player?"
After hearing what Hillgebrin said, almost everyone in Deepmind suddenly remembered the name that Fan Hui mentioned in the morning.
orange.
Is this mysterious foreign aid you?
Are you human... or...
At this moment, on the screen, AlphaGo's winning rate finally dropped to 1%.
AlphaGo resigned!
After alphaGo randomly placed a chess piece in the corner, a line of text popped up on the screen.
alphaGo admits defeat!
Huang Shijie took out two white chess pieces from the chess box and placed them on the chessboard with trembling fingers.
The invincible alphaGo actually lost.
Sergey Brin saw the words "AlphaGo surrenders" on the screen and stroked his beard.
Should I still go to the post-match press conference that I was originally scheduled to attend?
Sergey Brin suddenly hesitated.
For some unknown reason, Sergey Brin suddenly remembered what the Asian young man he met in the elevator today said.
"I hope you can still be in a good mood tonight."
Sergey Brin, who originally thought that losing a game was no big deal, suddenly became really upset.
Let's wait until we really win this game before attending the press conference.
——
"Seungri Heita (Korean for victory)!!!" The Korean reporters at the scene cheered, and almost all the studios were filled with joy.
“Zaleheta (Well done)!!!”
"Li Jiudan! How do you feel about today's victory!?"
"Since you won today's Xiangtanqi match, does that mean your past two losses were due to your unfamiliarity with the AI's moves?"
"Excuse me, Li Jiudan, who is the person wearing a mask sitting next to you today? He doesn't seem to be a professional Go player. Can you introduce him to me?"
"Your style of play today seems to have changed significantly compared to the past. Is this your secret weapon against AI?"
"Mr. Hassabis, what do you think about AlphaGo losing today?"
Li Shishi and Hassabis, who had a gloomy face but was trying to maintain his composure, looked at each other, and seemed to see helplessness in each other's eyes.
"Today's game was very exciting. We need to go back and check carefully what went wrong with alphaGo today." Hassabis picked up the microphone and said dryly, then stopped talking and looked at Lee Sesil.
He had already prepared his speech after today's victory and the questions that reporters might ask.
But now that he has lost, he doesn't know what to say or what not to say.
How to deal with the media is a professional skill that also requires training. Unfortunately, Hassabis has not yet truly mastered this skill.
Even a genius is not good at everything.
In comparison, Lee Se-sil, who has been facing the media since he was a child, is much more at ease.
"I'm very sorry, but I must first state that today's chess talk is not based on my personal strength."
"According to the agreement I reached with the Goryeo Chess Institute, I lost the first two games, and the second game was a complete defeat. Therefore, the initiative of this game is not in my hands. My role today is the same as Dr. Huang's, and I am no less surprised than everyone else about this game." Li Shishi said softly.
As soon as Li Shishi said this, the media at the scene was in an uproar.
No one expected that such a proud Lee Se-sil would actually give up the right to play the game.
What happened? And what other chess player could be so powerful that the fearless Lee Se-sil could willingly surrender control of the game?
"As for my partner, I haven't met him, and he probably wasn't at the scene either."
"The gentleman next to me was simply informing me of my placement based on real-time information relayed by my partner. As for my partner's name, I'm sure many chess fans know him and have guessed that he was completing my match today. He's the mysterious player, Orange, who defeated Gu Jie and me online two months ago."
orange! ! !
This name, which sounds like it's following Apple's trend, has officially appeared in the mass media.
Before Orange defeated Gu Jie and Lee Se-sil, only a small number of Go enthusiasts knew about it. Although Gu Jie also said something when he won the Menglily Championship, his influence was obviously not comparable to what it is now.
Now we are facing the global media!
It is conceivable that within two hours, this name will spread throughout the world and occupy countless hot searches!
Li Shishi's expression was calm.
"As for Orange's identity, you can ask Mr. Hua next to me later." Li Shishi pointed at Hua Zecheng who was hiding in an inconspicuous corner.
The flash lights were clicking as Hua Zecheng, who was still wearing a mask, was taken pictures.
"Excuse me, who is Orange? If he's so strong, why doesn't he challenge AlphaGo himself?"
"Some people say that Orange is artificial intelligence. Is that true?"
“How do you feel about this victory?”
…
Hua Zecheng was a little confused by the sudden questions from reporters.
A voice suddenly came from the headphones on his head.
Hua Zecheng listened attentively and couldn't help showing a surprised expression. He glanced at Fang Yu who was still sitting on the chair, but saw Fang Yu nodded to him.
"Yes, Orange is indeed artificial intelligence." Hua Zecheng took off his mask, picked up the microphone, and replied concisely, "Orange was developed by Yuzu Technology. It is the world's first truly large-scale artificial intelligence model."
Hassabis was shocked.
Yuzu Technology?
That Yuzu Technology that Google originally wanted to acquire? Did they develop Orange?
What is the big model?
Damn it!
In an instant, Hassabis figured everything out.
Damn! This was premeditated!
deepmind was sniped!
Hassabis's face turned pale instantly.
Being angry.
I should have known not to sign that pre-match agreement.
I was careless.
——
"What do you think? I'll tell you!" In the studio, Gu Jie jumped up excitedly and punched the air several times, like a 1.8-meter-tall monkey.
He has been scolded a lot these days, and he just doesn't understand why so many people can't see such an obvious thing?
I told you to scold me! ?
Are you embarrassed?
"This, this..." The other three hosts in the studio were dumbfounded.
"Uh, Professor Liu. In the interview just now, they said that Orange AI was developed by a company called Pomelo Technology. Do you know anything about this company?" Chen Ying quickly changed the subject and handed Liu Ziqing a handle.
"Ah?" Liu Ziqing was still confused. Aren't you bringing up something that is completely irrelevant?
How the hell do I know what Yuzi Technology does?
——
"Yuzu Technology!"
"Bang!"
Wu Ende slammed his fist on the table in frustration, and without thinking about anything else, he picked up the phone and called Robert.
"Andrew, I know what you're going to say. I'll give you an explanation." Before Wu Ende could say anything, he heard Robert's gentle but firm voice on the other end of the line, "Chihiro, you must go all in on AI now!"
——
"Didn't you say that the final battle would be announced later?" Chen Shuyao pulled Fang Yu, her peach blossom eyes flashing as she asked quietly.
Fang Yu shook his head: "No, I just took a look at the atmosphere at the scene, too much is as bad as too little."
"Originally, I wanted to intervene after Lee Se-sil was defeated 3-0, but I didn't expect Lee Se-sil to lose the will to fight so quickly and announce the Xiangtanqi match in advance."
"If there were only two games, and they were played after the winners were already decided, it would be fine to create some hype. But now, with Orange intervening in the third game, everyone sees hope for Human victory. If we keep it hidden until after the final game, we'll be criticized for playing a stunt and fooling the audience, which will be very difficult to deal with."
"So, we can only announce it now and then challenge AlphaGo head-on!"
After saying that, Fang Yu used the Wilder magic in his sleeve to perform a fourth-ring "sweet talk" towards Hua Zecheng.
Note 1: The current large model LLM refers to the large language model, which mainly uses the transformer architecture.
The concept of LLM only officially appeared in 2017.
However, the Orange model described in the book is different from the Transformer-based large language model (GPT), which relies primarily on the attention mechanism. Instead, it is built on the underlying principles of Pomelo and uses a corresponding neural network algorithm newly developed by Pomelo. Therefore, the large model here does not refer to a large language model, but rather a large parameter model.
(End of this chapter)
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