Chapter 20 Shorting the Hong Kong Dollar



1982 was a turbulent year for Hong Kong.

The Iron Lady's negotiations in Beijing were not going well.

Countless people are becoming increasingly pessimistic about Hong Kong's future, and capital outflow overseas has become a trend.

The financial crisis of the 1960s once again hit Hong Kong, with Hang Lung Bank being the first to be hit by a bank run.

Although the Hong Kong government and HSBC took emergency measures to avoid a domino effect, it was only a temporary solution and not a fundamental solution.

A bigger crisis is brewing in Hong Kong and is about to break out.

It will deal a devastating blow to Hong Kong's economy, which is exactly what Western capital is deliberately trying to achieve.

Due to the constant hype from the media, Hong Kong’s crisis of confidence has become increasingly serious.

Countless people are worried about the future situation in Hong Kong, fearing that their assets will be confiscated in a few years.

Therefore, immigrating overseas has become the choice of many middle- and upper-class families.

Exchanging Hong Kong dollars for foreign currencies such as US dollars becomes the best option for immigrants.

Mo Zhexuan knew this history very well and knew that he would have to wait until after next year.

Immigration overseas will reach a climax, and this will also trigger a bigger crisis, which is the famous "Hong Kong dollar crisis" in history.

September 24, 1983, this day will be remembered by countless people.

The "Hong Kong dollar crisis" broke out completely, and rumors spread throughout Hong Kong.

The news that the Hong Kong dollar will be replaced by the RMB spread everywhere, causing panic among the people in an instant.

People rushed to sell Hong Kong dollars, and speculative activities emerged.

Countless citizens rushed to supermarkets to buy daily necessities such as rice, flour, grain and oil.

The food reserves, which had been saturated for a long time, were instantly depleted. This was the famous "Black Saturday" in Hong Kong's financial history.

The "Hong Kong Dollar Crisis" caused the Hong Kong dollar to plummet. At the beginning of 1981, the exchange rate was 5.13 Hong Kong dollars per dollar.

By September 1983, the exchange rate had become 9.6 Hong Kong dollars per meter of gold. It is conceivable how serious the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar was.

In fact, the real culprit behind the Hong Kong dollar crisis is the wolf-like Western capital.

That is now the world's financial center - Wall Street.

Ever since the British Empire won the Falklands War in 1982.

Wall Street has set its sights on Hong Kong, an international financial metropolis.

Taking advantage of the fact that the Iron Lady's negotiations were not going well, they made a big fuss and continued to criticize Hong Kong's future through public opinion.

On the one hand, it joined a large number of hedge funds to withdraw from Hong Kong, and on the other hand, it continued to increase its short positions in Hong Kong dollars.

The purpose was to plunder Hong Kong's wealth and at the same time decouple the Hong Kong dollar from the British pound and link it to the US dollar.

At this time, the monetary hegemony of the US and the US has been consolidated, for the sake of the overall situation.

Hong Kong finally chose to link its currency to gold and adopt a linked exchange rate.

Simply put, the exchange rate depends entirely on the US dollar.

Ensure that the amount of Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves is more than twice the amount of currency in circulation in Hong Kong.

Although this system is very stable, it also gives Mi Jin complete decision-making power.

Because if large amounts of foreign capital leave Hong Kong.

The pressure on Hong Kong would be enormous, so Wall Street made a comeback without any scruples in 1997.

Mo Zhexuan could not change history, nor could he prevent this crisis from happening.

Since the situation cannot be changed, we can only gain more benefits from this crisis and build Hong Kong better in the future.

..............

In a private room on the second floor of Green Source Tea House at the east corner of the Kowloon Stock Exchange.

Mo Zhexuan and Wang Pengfei discussed business while drinking the Pu'er tea that had just been brewed by the female tea artist.

"What do you think about the current bank run at Hang Lung Bank?"

After Mo Zhexuan finished reading the "Hong Kong Economic News" he bought, he handed the newspaper to the other party.

Wang Pengfei took a sip of tea and instantly realized that the bank run at Hang Lung Bank must be related to the next plan.

As a stockbroker, it is compulsory to keep up with economic, political and other news every day. He saw the bank run on Hang Lung Bank in the morning, but did not take it seriously.

He took the newspaper and read it intently, wondering whether the bank run at Hang Lung Bank was an isolated incident or would continue to expand. At the same time, he was also wondering what Mo Zhexuan's plan was.

"Mr. Mo! I think the bank run at Hang Lung Bank will be under control soon. Last year, the Hong Kong government implemented a new three-tier financial system, which has reduced the probability of a bank crisis to a certain extent. Furthermore, the Hong Kong government and HSBC have already stepped in to provide assistance. I believe this crisis will soon pass."

Mo Zhexuan's face showed neither sadness nor joy. This answer did not satisfy him because it did not get to the point. He then asked in more detail:

"So what do you think are the underlying reasons behind the bank run? Will it continue to escalate?"

As soon as these words came out, Wang Pengfei instantly understood the meaning as if he had suddenly realized something. With the light of wisdom shining in his eyes, he spoke eloquently about his own judgment:

"The bank run at Hang Lung Bank shows that the vast majority of people in Hong Kong are worried about their future, fearing another crisis similar to the collapse of Mingde Bank in 1965. As to whether this will escalate, I believe it depends on the Iron Lady's visit to Beijing for negotiations. The outcome of these negotiations will determine Hong Kong's future."

"As we all know, the Iron Lady is a well-known hardliner internationally, but judging by the photo that's now circulating around the world, she's bound to fail this time."

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