"Old General, I've done a lot of business with the Soviets, including fertilizers, steel, and machinery. Which one are you asking about?"
"I'm not interested in the civilian stuff. Let's talk about the military and Soviet current affairs. You've been dealing with them for a long time, so you know a lot."
Wan Feng was a bit troubled. How could he learn about the situation in the Soviet Union from him? Where were the intelligence agencies?
"I've been dealing with the Soviets in Heihe for two years. Although I was only dealing with the Soviet Far East and not the central region, the social conditions in the Soviet Union are similar. I have some understanding of the situation in the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union is very chaotic now. How can I put it? The level of chaos is almost reaching the level of anarchism."
"Oh! Is it so messy?"
"I've been to the Soviet Union. While it wasn't lawless, it was still shocking. Otherwise, I wouldn't have dared to bring back those military supplies from the Soviet Union. The KGB is no pushover. Now even the KGB doesn't want to get involved. What do you think of the situation the Soviet Union has reached?"
The white-haired general frowned. "According to you, the Soviet Union is in serious trouble now. Why has it become so chaotic?"
"The main pressure is economic. The Soviet Union has been struggling economically for years, and coupled with its deep involvement in the Afghan quagmire and its continued support for South Vietnam, it's already been severely damaged. Now even basic livelihoods can't be maintained. Furthermore, it's probably being fooled by the West and the Belt and Road Initiative. I believe something major will happen to the Soviet Union within three years."
"What big things could happen to a country like the Soviet Union?"
"That's hard to predict. I'm just an ordinary person with limited vision, so even if I could make a prediction, it would be a blind guess."
"Tell me your prediction, just for fun. What do you think will happen to the Soviet Union? Civil war or secession?"
Wan Feng remained silent on purpose to appear profound.
"Although there were many conflicts between ethnic groups within the Soviet Union, they had not yet reached the point of civil war, nor were the conditions for civil war formed. Therefore, I believe the possibility of civil war is zero. However, the possibility of a split is more difficult to predict. I feel that the possibility of a split is greater."
The white-haired general frowned and thought for a long time: "Separation without civil war? No matter how you think about it, it's a contradiction."
"No, it's due to the Soviet Union's unique domestic situation. The Soviet Union is different from China. China is a single entity from south to north and from east to west. But the Soviet Union is different. It is made up of individual republics. Some of these republics joined voluntarily, while others were forced to join. Moreover, the history of integration is very recent. Some republics even joined only four decades ago. Is that right?"
The white-haired general nodded: "That's what happened."
"Before joining, these republics were countries in their own right. They weren't united with the Soviet Union, and with the disparity in wealth and the vast number of ethnic groups, they could barely hold together when the states were strong. But when they weakened, they naturally became disunited. I believe the signs of this are already very strong, and all that's missing is the right opportunity. Once that opportunity arrives and conflicts erupt, the Soviet Union will disintegrate."
The white-haired general stood up again and walked back and forth in the room. After walking back and forth a few times, he stopped.
"Your perspective is quite creative. Although our leaders are aware that something is wrong with the Soviet Union, no one has considered its disintegration. What would be the consequences if the Soviet Union were to disintegrate as you suggest?"
"The consequences are severe! If the Soviet Union were to split, it would likely be split into at least a dozen countries, varying in size. The largest would be Russia and the smallest would probably be Moldova. This would put the world in a state of chaos. Originally, the world's three major powers—China, the Soviet Union, and now the United States and NATO—were primarily targeting the Soviet Union. If the Soviet Union were to split and fall, China would naturally come into the West's sights, and they would then target us."
This is true. After the Soviet Union's collapse, China naturally became a thorn in the West's side. The West had many opportunities to interrupt China's rise. But God bless China. Either the Gulf War or the September 11th attacks gave China a twenty-year buffer. After these two decades, when the West turned around and wanted to deal with China again, it suddenly found that China had become a behemoth that they could no longer swallow.
"So serious?" the white-haired general asked in surprise.
"But there's no need to worry. Our Chinese civilization, which has existed for tens of thousands of years, cannot be overturned by some nomadic civilization."
"That makes sense. I also think our dark days are over. Now is the time for the revival of Chinese civilization. No villain can stop us from this revival! No wonder a businessman like you was able to obtain such important information."
Important information? Is it important? I don’t think it’s important at all!
"So, while the Soviet Union was in chaos and its economy was in recession, we quickly bought back what we could and equipped ourselves to cope with the changes in the world."
"Comrade Xiao Wan, can we really buy the three things you listed?"
"I think it's no problem, General! The Soviet Union is desperately short of money right now. Although we don't have much money at the moment, we can still buy some equipment from the Soviet Union. Which one should we buy first, or should we buy all of them at once?"
"We may not have enough money to buy them all at once. The most urgent thing is to buy the Su-27 first. With air superiority, the rest of the pressure will be much less."
We should indeed buy the Su-27 first. Once there is a war or conflict, whether or not we have air superiority will have a huge impact on the overall situation.
"Xiao Wan, do you think the Soviet Union will sell the Su-27 to us?"
"Of course we can. We not only want to buy the planes, but we also want to buy the production line as well."
"Buy the production line as well! This is going to be tough."
The Mirage 2000 project with Gallicus fell through a while ago, and technology transfer was one of the reasons.
What's so difficult about this? The production line must have been bought back, otherwise where would those J-11s come from?
Although the Soviet Union was very reluctant to sell, it was so poor that it was almost begging for food. If it sold, it could still have some porridge to drink and survive, but if it didn't sell, it would starve to death.
Compared to starving to death, the most important thing is to sell everything you have to survive.
If you are alive, there is still a chance to turn things around, but if you die, it’s all over and there is nothing to talk about.
"You have negotiated with the Soviets. What do you think if we let you negotiate?" The white-haired general said this after a long silence.
Wan Feng was shocked.
Let me negotiate! I'm just an ordinary citizen, okay? How could I possibly be used in such a matter? This is really a bit too much!
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