Chapter 519 A Good Opportunity, Who Wouldn't Want It? (Bug Fix): Taking the Initiative and Laying the Groundwork
Many years later, when Professor Zheng no longer wanted to be a doctoral supervisor, he would sip his wine and reminisce about the past, still unable to help but sigh, "That's fate!"
An individual has their own destiny, and so does a factory.
For example, the 921 earthquake in Taiwan in 1999, strictly speaking, caused very limited physical damage to the Hsinchu High-Tech Park.
The factory buildings in the science park did not collapse, and there were no casualties among the chip factory workers.
From the perspective of earthquake relief, this piece of land and the people living on it are completely negligible and do not require any assistance.
They can even go out and help others.
But in fact, the unique nature of the semiconductor industry turned what seemed like a minor earthquake into a massive collapse and tsunami affecting chip factories.
Because of a power outage.
The earthquake caused widespread power outages across Taiwan, including science parks in Hsinchu and Taichung.
The chip factory operates 24 hours a day without interruption, and the sudden power outage caused all the chips on the production line to be scrapped.
Anyone who has visited a chip factory or watched related documentaries or read related materials knows that chip manufacturing requires extremely high precision in terms of temperature, crystallinity, and timing.
All of this requires electricity to keep the equipment running.
Once the power goes out, chips that cannot meet the production environment requirements will have to be scrapped.
This is just the most obvious, readily apparent loss; the more troublesome things are yet to come.
The earthquake did not cause the factory to collapse—chip factories themselves have very high earthquake resistance standards.
However, sophisticated semiconductor equipment, such as lithography machines and etching machines, is highly sensitive to vibration. Earthquakes can cause some equipment to shift or malfunction, requiring significant time for inspection, repair, and recalibration.
Even if these devices were not affected by the vibration at all, and were simply shut down due to a power outage.
They will still need to be recalibrated once the power comes back on.
It's not that I'm being dramatic or looking for trouble.
Rather, it is the nanoscale process precision requirements and equipment operating characteristics that determine their delicate nature.
For example, a lithography machine needs to maintain submicron-level precision in parameters such as exposure and overlay at all times. A power outage will cause the parameters of the optical and control systems to be lost or drifted.
A sudden power outage can also cause voltage fluctuations, directly disrupting the original parameters of the equipment. If you don't calibrate after power is restored, the photolithographic pattern is very likely to have problems such as misalignment and linewidth deviation, directly leading to chip failure.
The situation is similar for other equipment such as etching machines.
As a result, this major power outage first rendered many chips on the production line unusable, and then caused equipment to stop. In addition, significant vibrations in some areas damaged the cleanroom's environment, requiring time to recover.
This is equivalent to putting the entire chip industry in Taiwan on pause.
In 1999, the consequences of this incident were quite astonishing.
Because today, Taiwan is a major hub of the global electronics supply chain.
Manufacturers realized that their chip supply chain had been cut off, and of course they couldn't wait for Taiwanese manufacturers to spend weeks restoring supply; their factories couldn't shut down along with the earthquake in Taiwan.
They had to turn around immediately and place additional orders with chip factories in other regions.
Whether it was Samsung from South Korea, Intel from the United States, STMicroelectronics from Europe, or even newly established semiconductor companies in mainland China, orders poured in like snowflakes.
The number of these new orders far exceeds the shortage, because everyone is afraid of another crisis and will subconsciously increase inventory to resist the risk of unforeseen events. This is the so-called bullwhip effect in the supply chain.
Essentially, it's the same principle as when people panic and rush to supermarkets to hoard rice, flour, and salt.
All factories have roughly the same production capacity in the short term. What does it mean when orders surge? It means the seller's market is larger than the buyer's market, and prices will skyrocket.
A 50% increase is a conservative estimate; some stocks have even doubled.
In an instant, everyone felt that the sky over the liberated area was clear and bright, and everyone's face was radiant.
Professor Zheng recalled that back then, when Director Zhou of Wuzhou Chip Factory made a phone call, he was full of energy, appearing cheerful but also having to suppress his emotions—because at that time, Dr. Zhang Rujing was still the general manager of Shida in Taiwan, and the shutdown of the foundry caused Shida considerable losses.
But Wuzhou Chip Factory has taken off.
Why did the 0.25-micron process production line we acquired from LG Electronics in South Korea last year start mass production in the first half of this year? It was all in preparation for the massive profits coming in September.
Faced with a large number of expensive orders, all the hard work of the past few years is nothing. Everyone now has one core principle: roll up our sleeves, work hard, and strive to double our profits this year.
Oh dear! Try to suppress your smile; you'd better get your emotions in order. Dr. Zhang is still in Taiwan, dealing with a lot of trouble. Right now, we must express our deep sympathy and close concern for our compatriots in Taiwan. They will do their utmost to help with any needs we may have.
Compared to the bustling activity at chip factories, lithography machine factories seem rather quiet, or to put it bluntly, they have little presence.
Why? Theoretically speaking, if product demand increases, then production equipment should also increase accordingly.
After all, even the most skilled engineer cannot actually hand-write chips.
However, the problem lies in the highly specialized nature of chip manufacturing equipment.
In particular, lithography machines are typical capital goods, rather than intermediate or consumer goods.
Firstly, it's expensive.
A single lithography machine costs several million US dollars, not just a few hundred dollars.
The procurement decision to purchase lithography machines is complex and the delivery cycle is long, usually three to six months, and for high-end and complex models, it can even take a year.
For chip manufacturers, purchasing lithography machines is a long-term investment to prepare for years of capacity expansion. Factories are unlikely to impulsively spend heavily on a large number of new lithography machines due to short-term industry fluctuations caused by an earthquake.
Dr. Lin Benjian, taking an international perspective, reminded his colleagues: "In the short term, the market demand for lithography machines will decline."
The colleagues, who were engrossed in their meals, were dumbfounded.
Dude, do you want to hear what you're saying? The demand for chips is rising, but the demand for lithography machines is stagnant, and you're even saying that the market demand for them will decline?
This doesn't make sense.
This means that pork prices have gone up, but nobody is buying live pigs?
It's an inversion of the Heavenly Gang!
Lin Benjian used to lead teams. IBM's corporate culture values sharing rather than working alone, so Dr. Lin, who is over fifty, looks at his young colleagues like his own apprentices and is particularly happy to teach them step by step.
Now, he will teach them how to analyze market conditions and trends.
"The consequences of a major earthquake are severe. It will cause direct economic losses and production stoppages for chip manufacturers. The factory's cash flow will also be affected. Moreover, the risk of aftershocks and the stability assessment of the supply chain need to be redone. In the face of such a major blow, the company's management's primary task is to maintain stability. We will temporarily suspend the procurement plan for new equipment to allow time to observe further developments."
Simply put, it's all about shifting from an active stance to a retreat.
“When an earthquake occurs, the company’s engineering resources and funds will be prioritized for post-disaster reconstruction and production recovery, rather than planning new production lines.”
"Therefore, in the short term, the demand in the entire market is suppressed, rather than growing."
Director Tian of the lithography machine factory swallowed the stir-fried water bamboo shoots and shredded pork in his mouth, quite regretfully saying, "So after all that, everyone else is eating meat, while we can't even get a sip of soup."
The orders they are currently fulfilling are still those previously agreed upon with the Russian chip manufacturers.
Tsk, that's why they say he has connections in high places.
In June, Mikron's team came over, marveling at their lithography machine, but couldn't afford to pay for it.
Mr. Ivanov came to inquire about it, and in September, the customer came over happily, taking the money in one hand and delivering the goods in the other.
It's a pity that not the whole world is full of mikroners; they just can't get other kinds of broth.
Factory Director Tian felt he shouldn't appear petty, but rather stand up for the entire industry: "During the chip industry downturn, all the lithography machine manufacturers suffered. Now that chip manufacturers are doing well, we're left watching helplessly. It's one thing for everyone to be poor together, but how can we allow one to prosper while the other suffers, without getting any benefit at all?"
Lin Benjian laughed when he heard this and kindly told him, "The demand for lithography machines won't increase now, but their factories can still make money."
How do you make money? If you can't sell the goods, you can sell repairs and services.
Following the earthquake, chip manufacturers urgently need technical service engineers from the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to inspect, calibrate, and repair damaged equipment. At the same time, orders for replacement parts will surge.
This service revenue is also an important source of income for lithography machine manufacturers.
Unfortunately, the prerequisite for you to earn this money is that you have already sold your lithography machine.
If you don't have any customers, who's going to come to you for repairs and maintenance?
If you're selling refrigerators or air conditioners, you can take the easy way out and not necessarily go to the original manufacturer. Just find a technician nearby to take a look. It's not only more convenient, but it might also be cheaper.
But that's a lithography machine, one of which costs six or seven million US dollars. Are you willing to take that risk?
So, regardless of whether they make money or not, an earthquake in Taiwan shook the global semiconductor industry, yet they didn't gain any benefit whatsoever.
While it's painful to see our neighbors fail, it's even more disheartening to see them succeed.
Factory Director Tian felt that the newly marketed water bamboo shoots were no longer crisp and refreshing.
Wang Xiao had just returned from the municipal government when he saw this scene of silent sorrow.
The cafeteria operates on a self-service basis, so there's no waiting for anyone. She readily got her food, carried her tray over, and proactively went to the table to talk to people: "Hey, everyone's eating very politely today, no talking while eating. What's going on?"
She's in a great mood right now, very good.
Although she had long been prepared to continue losing another billion dollars in the semiconductor industry.
But which boss wouldn't be happy to make money earlier than expected?
Moreover, this time the customers came to them on their own initiative; it wasn't a one-off deal.
If they want your goods today, but the original supplier resumes supplying tomorrow, will they no longer want yours?
No, they now have another option, and this has been proven in practice. They are very likely to continue getting goods from you in the future.
This is the benefit of black swan events.
In the short term, it will cause shocks to the industrial chain, but at the same time, it will also break the original market pattern, force technological innovation, and give rise to new manufacturers.
The more people enter an industry, the more prosperous it will become.
Seeing the boss smiling broadly, Factory Manager Tian sighed, "We're ashamed, boss. We've never made any money, we've only been spending it."
It's getting more and more heartbreaking to talk about; just look at the entire group's semiconductor industry.
Now, not only are chip manufacturers making money, but LCD screen manufacturers are also thriving and are starting to build new factories.
Only their lithography machine factory remains, and it hasn't shone at all.
Wang Xiao smiled and stirred the pickled mustard greens and stir-fried edamame on her plate. This was really delicious with porridge.
However, Boss Wang didn't rush to drink the porridge. Instead, he said directly, "What's the rush? Good days are coming soon."
Everyone was puzzled. What auspicious day?
Now is the best time. The blow to Taiwan's semiconductor companies is like a whale falling, which gives rise to many new life.
However, it was not devastated, and the factory was able to restore its production capacity within a few months.
There's no chance now, let alone when Taiwanese businesses recover.
Mr. Wang took a sip of porridge and then said meaningfully, "I'm afraid things can't be restored to what they were before."
Everyone became interested. What did they mean? No matter how strong an earthquake is, it will eventually pass, and besides, there have been no aftershocks now.
The factories in Taiwan haven't collapsed, and the people are still here. It really won't take long to resume production.
Wang Xiao smiled and said, "But people's confidence is gone."
She looked up at the crowd and said, "The biggest impact of this earthquake is that it has made everyone realize that it is very dangerous for an industry to be concentrated in one area. Especially in Taiwan, which is an island and a region prone to earthquakes."
"If after production resumes, all the orders are still concentrated in Taiwan, what will happen if there is another earthquake?"
“You learn from your mistakes. The industrial layout will be readjusted, and industrial giants will accelerate their production capacity layout outside of Taiwan.”
Simply put, this is an opportunity for the semiconductor industries of South Korea and mainland China.
The former's advantage lies in technology, while the latter relies on cheaper land and labor costs.
Once they take off, they will fight tooth and nail for orders from Taiwan.
Interestingly, the southeastern coastal areas of mainland China, Taiwan, and South Korea are all separated by sea and are quite close, forming a triangular shape.
When we were in elementary school math class, our teachers taught us that a triangle is the most stable structure.
Of course, Japan is now also an important center for global chip production.
The problem is that it is precisely because it is too powerful that the United States has been suppressing it.
European and American giants would absolutely not shift their production capacity allocation to Japan at this time.
If you don't believe me, just look. The industry had already foreseen the bottleneck of deep ultraviolet lithography a few years ago, and experts from the International Semiconductor Technology Roadmap were also actively promoting EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) related research and development.
However, in 1994, the U.S. Congress passed a resolution refusing to allow Japanese companies to participate in any U.S. EUV research projects.
Therefore, in 1997, the United States took the lead in establishing the EUV LLC core research and development alliance, whose members included companies such as Intel and AMD, as well as laboratories under the U.S. Department of Energy.
Doesn't something seem off? No? No, something's very wrong.
Think about it, in 1997, who were the global giants in lithography machines? It was Nikon, it was Canon, and ASML were all rising stars, playing the role of junior partners.
If you're moving to the next stage in the lithography machine field, why are you excluding industry giants?
Wang Xiao's thinking is very jumpy; she often gets an idea and just sits there, starting to tinker with things.
Right now, the people at the table are still processing the fact that her orders from Taiwan will eventually be taken by South Korea and mainland China.
Yes, as long as mainland semiconductor companies come together, Wuzhou, as the only lithography machine manufacturer in mainland China capable of stable mass production, will inevitably receive government support.
Even if foreign lithography machine manufacturers want to dump their products, we can start a price war with them and seize the market first.
Putting aside whether the government allows it or not, just considering the price war, given their boss's personality, she's really willing to fight it head-on, even at a loss.
Just as everyone was about to nod in agreement with the boss, he acted faster than they did and quickly changed the subject: "Lin Bo, what do you think we should do if we want to work on extreme ultraviolet radiation?"
Lin Benjian was stunned by her question.
Did they just talk about extreme ultraviolet radiation? I don't think they mentioned it at all.
He thought for a moment, then shook his head and said, "There's no need to rush this. The academic community should take the lead. We can start planning after the EUV LLC consortium has overcome the relevant theoretical challenges."
The main problem is that their lithography machine factory is just a newborn baby. No matter how ambitious you are, your physical condition is what it is, and you can't run a marathon.
It's better to focus on improving yourself first; once you're well-developed, that's what truly matters.
Wang Xiao shook his head: "No, I think we still have to do something, otherwise we won't be able to get into the game later. Because they've already started, they'll inevitably create a lot of patents. If they don't want to play with us then, once the patent barriers are erected, we'll be helpless."
She said this based on speculation about what Japan had experienced.
Before she traveled through time, she heard that Japan's lithography machine giant had taken the wrong path in the development of immersion lithography machines, which led to its complete defeat and its inability to recover.
But after she traveled through time, especially after she invested in making lithography machines herself, she paid attention to the industry trends in the 1990s, noticed extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, and also took note of the US alliance's exclusion of Japanese companies.
Therefore, it's hard for her not to speculate that Japanese companies must have also suffered a major setback in extreme ultraviolet lithography machines.
Why would she think that way?
Even a weakened giant is still bigger than a horse. Although Japanese companies lagged behind by two or three years in immersion lithography machines, their size as industry giants didn't disappear overnight. They still have a chance to catch up and regain their leading position.
Unless they have suffered another blow, and after two heavy blows they have lost too much blood and become too weak, they will not collapse.
Based on comprehensive information analysis, this second blow should be the development of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines.
Given that Japan's R&D capabilities in lithography machines are not weak, and can even be described as quite formidable, they have every opportunity to break through the technological blockade imposed by Europe and the United States.
So how do you lock it down? The simplest and most effective method is, of course, a technology alliance, because the patent applied for first will completely trap it.
Modern Japan may very well be the future of China.
Wang Xiao said arrogantly, "I don't like kneeling. I want us to earn money standing up."
Dr. Lin didn't know how to evaluate his new boss.
Anyone who hears this will exclaim, "You're incredibly arrogant!"
Do you know what an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine is? Just saying the word doesn't mean you know the definition. Nor does reciting the definition mean you know how to do it.
But Lin Benjian had built his professional foundation at IBM over 22 years, and the idea that research and development should be ahead of the world was deeply ingrained in his bones.
So even though he thought his boss's wild idea was a pipe dream, he couldn't bring himself to say "NO! Absolutely not!" right away.
He took a deep breath, thought it over and over, and finally gave the answer: "This is difficult."
Then he added, "It's harder than ascending to heaven."
This is a polite way of declining; you should probably stop thinking about it for now.
Even if you drive us to our deaths, or simply drown us with money, you still can't do it.
Do you know what extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines mean? Why did the EUV LLC consortium bring together top US chip companies, national laboratories, and core technologies? Because of its incredibly high level of complexity. Without this approach, there's absolutely no hope.
Can you compare yourself to top-tier chip companies or national laboratories? What technologies do you possess?
What's the difference between this and using grenades and nuclear bombs to fight each other head-on?
Let's be rational and clear-headed. Why are we developing immersion lithography machines? It's to find a new path to overcome the limitations of 193-nanometer deep ultraviolet lithography machines.
Why are you taking the third path now?
As it turns out, Wang Xiao is a man who can adapt to both high and low positions, and he cuts things in half in business as well: "Let's not talk about extreme ultraviolet lithography machines for now. Let's talk about what we can do in this industry. Others are eating meat, and we can't just not even get a sip of soup. Even being persistent is better than not being able to get a hand at all, okay?"
That makes more sense.
Even the well-mannered Dr. Lin was able to speak calmly: "This path is more difficult than the breakthrough of immersion lithography. It should be considered the next path after our immersion deep ultraviolet lithography machine reaches its limit."
Wang Xiao nodded, adhering to the principle that fish only have a three-second memory, and directly discarded what she had said before, saying in a serious tone, "That's exactly what I think. Let's lay a solid theoretical foundation first."
Tsk, it's as if she wasn't the one who immediately declared we were going to build an extreme ultraviolet lithography machine.
Dr. Lin didn't bother arguing with a layman like her who didn't understand technology. Instead, he patiently explained, "If you really want to do it, my personal suggestion is to maximize your strengths. The Soviet Union had some experience in this area. For example, extreme ultraviolet light is easily absorbed by matter, and multilayer mirrors are the core of the optical path. The Soviet Union had made remarkable achievements in this field. In the 1980s, they developed EUV multilayer mirror manufacturing technology that could make standard structures for mirrors and lighting."
No sooner had he finished speaking than the Russian engineer at the table suddenly chimed in: "We also have free-electron lasers and excimer laser technology."
His Chinese was so bad that he spoke in English after his colleague translated the conversation at the dinner table into Russian.
Lin Benjian nodded readily and began speaking in English; he indeed did not speak Russian.
"Yes, the Soviet Union had a deep accumulation of expertise in optical research related to extreme ultraviolet radiation, especially in the fields of laser sources, fundamental physics theories, and spaceborne ultraviolet observation equipment."
To be honest, the Soviet Union's scientific and technological research and development back then was really quite advanced.
"If we're going to do it, we should start from this area, focusing on specific aspects such as EUV light sources, optical design, and precision control to develop expertise. In the future, we may become a technology provider in the global EUV technology ecosystem."
"Once we achieve this, even if they want to leave us behind, they won't be able to completely exclude us, because they need us."
Upon hearing this, Wang Xiao clapped his hands together and smiled broadly: "That's exactly what I'm thinking, so I'd appreciate it if you could help me write a plan. Later, I can use the plan to find people and get them to start the research."
By conducting preliminary theoretical research and experiments, accumulating core patents, and cultivating our own talent pool, we will have the opportunity to legitimately seek opportunities in the future.
Dr. Lin subconsciously wanted to take a deep breath.
Everyone at the table was trying not to laugh.
Their boss is really generous; he doesn't even blink when it comes to paying people.
But don't forget, their boss is a capitalist through and through. What are the principles of a capitalist? To extract the maximum surplus value from their employees.
To put it simply, if she pays you three times the market rate, you'll likely end up doing the work of three people.
Dr. Lin let out a genuine sigh and nodded helplessly: "Alright, I'll write it."
This might be an opportunity for him to resolve his inner conflict.
Back when he was at IBM, he left the company feeling frustrated because of a dispute with his superiors over X-rays and ultraviolet light.
He won so many honors at IBM and brought so many honors to IBM, yet when he left, he didn't even have a farewell party of his own.
Now, if their team can really achieve results on extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, wouldn't that be making up for past regrets?
However, Dr. Lin had to remind his unconventional boss: "Let's continue with the theoretical research on extreme ultraviolet light. Our key task right now is still the immersion lithography machine."
Wang Xiao nodded vigorously, knowing that things were going well for them recently, so she dared to voice her dream: "Of course, I'm counting on it to make us a lot of money."
Lin Benjian smiled and nodded: "Then you just wait, boss."
After he finished speaking, he began to drink his soup.
After finishing a bowl of soup, he saw that Wang Xiao had put down his chopsticks. He hesitated for a moment, then spoke up again: "Boss, if we want to make a technological breakthrough, we do have a direction we can consider."
This piqued the interest of not only Wang Xiao, but everyone else at the table.
How do we achieve a technological breakthrough?
Dr. Lin has given countless lectures, so even though he hasn't actually been a teacher, he has the soul of a teacher in him.
Now, the moment he opens his mouth, he has the distinct air of a teacher: "Have you ever heard Moore's two fables?"
What parable is it? Anyone in the semiconductor industry knows it's about the raw materials and metallic conductors used in chips.
Because sand is the most abundant and cheapest material on Earth, we use it as the raw material for chips.
Because aluminum is the most abundant and cheapest metal on Earth, we use it to make circuits and switches on chips.
This fable has been told for decades.
Lin Benjian explained, "Most of the circuits and switches we use in other fields are made of copper, which has a significant advantage in terms of conductivity. The reason why chips are mainly made of aluminum is because aluminum is lightweight and inexpensive. However, it has a very serious problem: its conductivity is insufficient, only 60% of that of copper."
What are the consequences of this? The direct consequence is that conductive materials must use aluminum wire of a larger gauge to replace copper wire.
As chip manufacturing processes advance, when the process reaches 0.13 micrometers, aluminum's conductivity becomes insufficient, and you have to consider using copper to replace aluminum.
"This is also a research direction in the global semiconductor industry, in the field of materials. Two years ago, IBM successfully developed a new manufacturing process for transistors using copper instead of aluminum. This can make electronic circuits smaller, thereby increasing the speed of microprocessors by 15%."
Oh my, that sounds so tempting! Everyone's eyes are glued to it.
Professor Zheng couldn't help but ask, "Which company is using this technology now?"
Lin Benjian shook his head: "This is just a research result from the laboratory, and it has not yet been mass-produced. I heard that IBM was willing to sell this technology to TSMC, but TSMC did not accept it."
Plant Manager Tian eagerly pressed on, "Why doesn't TSMC accept it? If they used it, not only would their processes improve, but their profits would also increase."
Lin Benjian laughed: "I don't know the specific reason. It's possible that they feel IBM's technology is not mature enough, and it would take a lot of time, energy, and money to move forward. It's also possible that they want to do it themselves. In the semiconductor industry, as long as materials are changed, there will definitely be a major reshuffle. If they have their own technology, then they won't have to chase after others."
He personally leans more towards the latter.
Because Dr. Morris Chang is a very decisive leader who is very willing to take the lead.
When TSMC recruited him, the position they offered him indicated that TSMC would invest heavily in research and development.
Instead of buying immature lab technology from others, it's better to do it yourself.
Lin Benjian smiled at Wang Xiao: "Boss, what do you think? Is this an opportunity to get involved?"
Wang Xiao's heart skipped a beat. Using copper instead of aluminum? Great!
Who wouldn't want the opportunity?
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[Starry-eyed] Good morning! I suddenly realized this story already has over 4 million words! [Cracking face]
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