Chapter 325 Autumn in the Vineyard: Good Things Are Always in the Hands
In 1994, classifying U.S. bonds as a Ponzi scheme was quite groundbreaking.
At least, not only was Major General Punonin, a former soldier, shocked, but even Yura, who considered himself a semi-economist of the new generation, was dumbfounded.
It wasn't until the first weekend of September, when everyone went to the farm to pick grapes to pass the time, that Yura took the initiative to talk to Wang Xiao.
“Miss Wang, I heard what you said, but after thinking about it, I think it’s unfair of you to conflate MMM stocks with US bonds.”
While cutting grapes with scissors, Wang Xiao nodded and said, "Because you didn't believe in the MMM stock from the beginning that it could be redeemed. Most people in the world don't believe it either, so only a small portion of people took over, and it collapsed. US Treasury bonds are different. Everyone believes that they can be redeemed when they mature, so everyone buys them, and the water flows into the pool."
Yura took the grapes she had cut, put them in the basket, and emphasized, "This isn't a matter of belief or disbelief. The bonds were issued by the US government; it's impossible for them not to honor them. How could the government not honor them?"
Sunlight filters through the gaps in the grape trellis and the foliage, creating bright rays in the air.
Wang Xiao looked at the tiny particles suspended in the air illuminated by the golden threads and smiled slightly: "How can you be so sure that the government will definitely keep its promise?"
She mentally ranted: Dude, everyone can say that, but Russia can't.
Why?
Because the Russian government has indeed refused to make the payment.
The 1997 Asian financial crisis also dealt a fatal blow to Russia's economy, so severe that the government was unable to redeem its bonds and simply declared them all invalid.
First they abolished the ruble in cash, then they cancelled government bonds. Everyone who saw this said something; the Russians are truly awesome.
Logically speaking, Wang Xiao, a hapless guy who got stuck with stocks before his time travel and has no interest in finance, should not know about this glorious chapter in Russia's history.
The problem is that almost every Chinese person has heard of the 1997 Hong Kong financial defense battle.
When did this financial war finally end? At the end of August 1998.
Why at this time? Because in mid-August 1998, Russia, mired in a severe financial crisis, announced that it had defaulted on its domestic debt and suspended interest payments to foreign investors.
As a result, Wall Street hedge funds that had been profiting from shorting Japanese bonds and going long on Russian bonds for years were completely dumbfounded, and even Long-Term Capital Management, the largest hedge fund in the United States at the time, simply went bankrupt.
Financial risks spread into the U.S. financial system through hedge funds.
Seeing this trend, banks will definitely have to tighten their lending to prevent themselves from being unable to recover loans.
This change in banking policy had far-reaching consequences, leading to a significant increase in capital financing costs for Wall Street figures like Soros, who were forced to close out their short positions in Southeast Asia.
With no further investment being added here, pressure in the Southeast Asian market has eased significantly, Hong Kong dollar interbank lending rates have decreased, and the Hang Seng Index has risen.
With this, the battle to defend Hong Kong's financial system came to an end.
It is no exaggeration to say that in this financial war that has lasted for more than a year, Russia indirectly saved Southeast Asian countries that were mired in difficulties.
Moreover, besides the direct beneficiaries who should toast Russia, all countries in the world should also be grateful to Great Russia.
Why? Because money never sleeps.
If Wall Street capital had not suffered a setback in the defense of Hong Kong's financial system, it would never have stopped there after its initial success; instead, it would have pressed on and continued to reap profits from around the world.
Don't assume that being a developed capitalist country means you can avoid being exploited. Soros's most famous battle, which shook the world, was shorting the British pound in 1992.
Yura had no idea that his words had prompted the Chinese woman opposite him to write a short essay in her mind.
He frowned slightly, still incredulous: "How could the government default on its contract? If it does, the country will be finished."
Wang Xiao selected another bunch of grapes and snipped them with the scissors.
Is it all over? Not really.
Yes, yes, yes, the Russian debt default severely damaged the credibility of the Russian federal government, and since then, foreign investors have no longer dared to invest in Russia.
The problem is that during the six years between the collapse of the Soviet Union and the default on Russian debt, the Russian federal government had little credibility.
It was 1994, and how many foreign investors would dare to trust Russia's investment environment?
Moreover, what would have happened to Russia if the Russian Federation government hadn't defaulted on its debt in 1998, and Russia hadn't been able to repay its debts?
Think about South Korea.
After the 1997 financial crisis, South Korea, which honestly acknowledged its debts, really had nothing left but kimchi.
Conversely, Russia, which defaulted on its debts, survived until after the millennium when international oil prices soared, finally ushering in its national fortune and economic recovery.
Capital is the most forgetful and ruthless thing in the world. With Russia's economy booming, why would it worry about attracting foreign investment? If they don't come, they have the money to do it themselves.
This shows that rules need to be followed with flexibility.
Those who follow the rules may not necessarily have a good ending.
Wang Xiao laughed again, put the grapes back into the basket, and said softly, "If Russia can abolish the ruble, why do you think the United States won't refuse to honor its bonds?"
This is also the biggest reason why she didn't stop Ivanov from getting closer to politics.
Every country has its own way of playing the game. Americans are good at finding loopholes to break contracts, while Russians are really blatant in tearing up contracts.
Here, without connections in the central government, how can you do business? You simply can't.
The emergence of oligarchs and monopolistic economies are entirely the result of evil flowers growing from evil soil.
Yura couldn't read minds; all he could hear was what Wang Xiao said, and he immediately looked flustered.
The abolition of the old ruble last summer still makes him feel that the government has little credibility.
He could only subconsciously defend the government: "We have our own difficulties."
Wang Xiao smiled, plucked the shriveled outer grapes from the bunch, and said softly, "Who doesn't have their difficulties?"
Yura was speechless. She could only discreetly pick a purplish-red grape, peel off the skin, and put it in her mouth.
Unfortunately, he was unlucky; the grapes were so sour that he grimaced.
Ivanov came over to lift the basket and was overjoyed to see it.
At the crucial moment, it was Punonin who saved Yura.
Tax police major generals are always busier than others, and they don't even show up until the evening on weekends.
His leather boots rustled as they stepped on the fallen leaves.
When everyone turned to look at him, his gaze was fixed only on Wang Xiao's face: "Miss Wang, today our leader and your leader signed an agreement."
Wang Xiao was neither surprised nor curious.
In April, the Russian president visited China at the invitation of the Chinese government.
Then, in September, the Chinese president visited Russia at the invitation of the Russian government.
Yesterday, Friday, she even went to the airport to welcome the chairman as a representative of the Chinese business community.
The two heads of state have already engaged in exchanges; if no agreement is signed, it can only mean that the talks were not going well. This is not in the interests of either country.
Wang Xiao's reaction clearly did not satisfy Punoning, so he had to ask probing questions: "Madam, aren't you curious about what exactly this agreement is?"
Without hesitation, Wang Xiao replied, "A statement about strategic partnerships or something."
“Not only that.” Punonin didn’t beat around the bush any longer and directly solved the mystery, “There’s also the determination of the border between the two countries.”
Before Wang Xiao could react, Ivanov became excited: "How do you define the boundary?"
Punonin took out a world map from his bag, looked around, and could only spread it out on the footstool. Then he used his hand as a pen to draw for the people who gathered around.
Yura nodded subconsciously: "This division is good, very fair."
As a Russian who grew up in the Cold War atmosphere, he had always worried that China would take advantage of the collapse of the Soviet Union to seize the Far East.
Just like Japan, they clamor all day long that the Northern Territories and Sakhalin Island belong to them.
Fortunately, China remained rational.
Ivanov glanced at him once, then subconsciously looked at Wang Xiao's expression.
Good heavens! He could imagine how furious the king would be.
To this day, she still refers to Sakhalin Island and Vladivostok.
But now, not to mention those two places, such a large area of land, which Tsarist Russia acquired through unequal treaties, is now officially recognized as belonging to Russia.
He glared at Punonin, that damned guy, who was deliberately trying to make the king unhappy.
Wang Xiao, however, did not show any sign of anger.
What's there to be angry about when a time traveler already knew this?
Prior to this, she was simply unsure exactly when the border line was established.
Seeing this map now, her only thought is, "Oh, it's today."
So, she could at least be considered a witness to history.
Her reaction was clearly unsatisfactory to Punonin.
The latter deliberately pressed further, asking, "Madam, don't you have any thoughts on this?"
His leather boots made a particularly jarring sound as they stepped on the fallen leaves.
“Of course I have ideas.” Wang Xiao’s gaze fell on the map again, full of admiration. “The leaders of my motherland can always grasp the key points and not get bogged down in the details.”
Punonin raised an eyebrow, took a step forward, stared at her face, and drew a circle on the map with his finger: "You're classifying it as a minor detail?"
The small patch on his fingertip was larger than the entire Henan province.
“Otherwise what?” Wang Xiao said seriously, “We’ve been talking about this since 1964, for 30 years now. Continuing to drag this out is not in the interests of either country.”
Punonin narrowed his eyes, looked at Wang Xiao, and suddenly smiled: "Madam, what kind of benefits are you talking about?"
"Develop the economy," Wang Xiao repeated. "For both of our countries, the top priority right now is to develop the economy."
The sun was setting behind the mountains, and although a bunch of grapes were piled up on the world map, they were still rustling in the autumn wind, as if they would be blown into the air at any moment.
Punonin shook his head, his eyes deep and unfathomable: "No, I'm wondering if you're planning to attack Taiwan."
Wang Xiao was startled.
Everyone has their own expertise; Punonin is indeed a soldier by training.
But she shook her head: "Sorry, I'm just a businesswoman."
Punonin's gaze did not leave her face: "No, madam, if you don't even have this much political insight, I find it hard to believe that supporting Ivanov's candidacy for parliament is a wise decision."
Even the evening breeze seemed to quiet down in that instant, no longer daring to disturb the world map pressed down by the grapes.
The vineyard was quiet, like a still frame of a painting.
Wang Xiao narrowed his eyes slightly, then suddenly smiled: "Major General, can I interpret this as you being unwilling, unwilling to be relegated to an auxiliary position, because you crave power?"
“No,” Punonin shook his head. “I just want to realize my political ideals.”
Wang Xiao immediately poured cold water on his enthusiasm: "Your political ideals have always remained just ideals, without any concrete implementation guidelines. My personal suggestion is..."
“Madam, don’t rush to offer advice,” Punonin interrupted her. “Answer my question, or I’ll find it hard to trust your political acumen.”
Wang Xiao glanced at Punonin and shook his head: "I told you before, your biggest problem is that you don't trust Ivanov's abilities."
She turned to Ivanov and said, "My dear friend, now tell him how you used the Chinese President's visit to Russia?"
Without hesitation, Ivanov replied, "According to the schedule, tomorrow the Chairman will visit the container market to observe private trade transactions and how merchants are helping Moscow's state-owned enterprises expand their sales channels. Also, the container market hospital will be opening soon, and the Chairman will be invited to inscribe a message."
In short, from this point forward, the container market will become a symbol of Sino-Russian friendship.
Wang Xiao turned to look at Punonin: "You still don't believe in his political wisdom? At the very least, he knows how to use existing conditions to get as close as possible to his goals."
For example, this trip to the container market was the first truly meaningful gift Ivanov received, or rather, earned for himself, after joining the Presidential Club.
Don't think this is easy; it's very difficult.
To put it bluntly, the container market is just a gathering place for unscrupulous traders; it's something that can't be openly discussed.
In August, Secretary Fang came to show her support, but she was just a local official. After she went abroad, her significance in Jiangdong was completely different.
But whether the president is at home or abroad, he represents the attitude of the country.
Wang Xiao admired himself and Ivanov for their foresight and resourcefulness in securing a visit to the container market during the President's visit to Russia.
To achieve this goal, they really used every possible relationship they had.
Wang Xiao looked directly at Punonin: "The most important thing in politics is to be good at utilizing all available resources. Ivan possesses this valuable quality."
Punoning shook his head subconsciously: "You're thinking too simply."
Politics, terrible politics, dirty politics, politics that is like a bottomless pit with no end in sight, he really didn't want Ivanov to get involved.
But Wang Xiao didn't care whether he wanted it or not, and directly emphasized: "Ivan has a natural voter base. The workers of the ZIL truck factory, the Muscovite automobile factory, and the Red Revolutionary machine tool factory are paid by him, so it is only natural that they would vote for him."
Let's stop talking about their jobs. Getting paid is their right, and we shouldn't use that to influence their political stance.
Be rational, be clear-headed. This is Moscow in 1994. You abandoned socialism, but capitalism hasn't embraced you either.
Who's going to spoil you? It's only natural to accept someone's job and be subject to their authority.
“In addition, the elderly and low-income groups who go to the container market to buy food will also be Ivan’s supporters.”
She smiled, with a hint of reassurance, "Sir, please don't be too nervous. Ivanov is just running for Moscow city councilor, not president."
Punoning narrowed his eyes and made a request: "You should not participate in the entire election process. You are Chinese, and it's not good for you to be too involved."
Wang Xiao smiled and nodded: "Professionals should do professional things. I never intended to get involved in the first place."
Punonin's wife, Lydia, called to them from afar: "Vlamikil, hurry, bring the grapes over, wash them clean while it's still light, make the wine, and then we can have dinner."
Even without Georgian grapes, Russians still drink wine; they grow their own grapes and make their own wine.
Punonin responded and beckoned Ivanov to help him carry the grape basket.
Wang Xiao and Yura followed leisurely behind, showing no intention of reaching out.
Yura suddenly turned her head and blurted out, "Do you think Ivanov's campaign manifesto can be realized?"
To restore Moscow's industry?
Good heavens, it sounds simple, but given the current situation, it sounds more like a fantasy.
Wang Xiao shook his head and said frankly, "It's difficult. The only truly achievable goal is probably to preserve the industrial sector. Once Russia's economy recovers, industry will have a chance to flourish, rather than starting all over again."
When that time comes, the factory's concern will probably not be a lack of investment, but rather that no one will be willing to come in and tighten screws.
Because Russia suffers from a classic Dutch disease, it is highly dependent on natural resources. Its economic development is tied to international crude oil prices.
With oil in their homes, they're richer than if they owned mines. Who would want to work hard in manufacturing?
For example, right now, if Georgian wine were readily available, probably not many people would be watching the sour grape juice bubbling away in barrels.
Punonin poured white sugar into the bucket as his wife instructed.
As he screwed the cap on, he glanced at Wang Xiao and said, "I didn't expect you to be interested in making wine."
Wang Xiao shook his head, politely declining: "I'm only interested in watching."
What a joke! She's lazy, knows nothing about farming, and only cares about money.
Punonin said meaningfully, "I thought you were planning to make red wine from the grapes and send it to the Kremlin."
Wang Xiao just smiled and said, "If it can really become Kremlin wine, I hope I will have the honor of tasting it."
Punonin gave her a deep look, said nothing, and then, at his wife's urging, went back to work.
That evening, everyone ate stewed chicken in a clay pot at the farm. The stew was made from free-range chicken raised on the farm, and the flatbread was made from flour milled from wheat grown on the farm.
It is quite popular.
The two children from Punoning's family didn't even leave the soup behind, and they even dipped the flatbread into the soup to eat, just like Xiao Gao and the others.
The autumn night in Moscow is clear and bright, with countless stars twinkling in the sky.
Not far away, students from the farm's primary school were running and playing by the light of the streetlights. Their laughter and screams mingled together, echoing across half the sky.
At this moment, in this day and night, I'm carefree like a little immortal.
Ivanov, holding a handful of freshly squeezed grape juice, came over to her and asked, "What are you thinking about?"
When Wang Xiao recited this line of poetry, he was stunned. After a long while, he sighed and said, "Nothing could be more beautiful than this."
Wang Xiao laughed out loud and recited another line: "If you have no worries on your mind, then every day is a good day."
Ivanov smiled too. Yes, having nothing on your mind is the most comfortable thing.
Is there anything you want to tell me?
Wang Xiao shook his head, thought for a moment, and then replied, "You are not anyone's puppet, you can't let them lead you by the nose."
While gaining Punonin's support is certainly a good thing, given the major general's assertive personality, he may very well use Ivanov as a tool to achieve his own will.
"Maintaining autonomy is the first step you must take if you want to move forward."
As for Wang Xiao herself, she told Punonin that she would not participate in Ivanov's campaign activities, and she really didn't.
For the rest of September, she focused her energy on E-no-Yu's first store in Moscow.
The influence of national strength and national image is far-reaching. No matter how good the quality of Chinese goods is, the same products will never be as expensive as Japanese goods.
Given this, Wang Xiao naturally wouldn't fight to the death anymore. Instead, he took advantage of the premium effect of Japanese brands and opened a branch of E-no-U directly in Moscow.
Everything is difficult at the beginning, and she didn't return to China until the end of September.
She rushed back this time not because she thought October in Moscow was too cold and she couldn't stand it.
Instead, a grand ceremony will be held in Pudong, Shanghai on October 1st.
The Oriental Pearl Tower was officially completed and welcomed a world-renowned superstar.
After numerous setbacks and delays in obtaining approvals, Michael Jackson's Shanghai concert has finally completed all the necessary procedures and is about to officially begin.
As the biggest driving force behind this concert, Wang Xiao naturally had to go back and have a blast.
Before she could even celebrate, she received a message.
Secretary Fang was very angry because Jiangdong's home had been raided.
What do you mean by that?
Both the provinces of Jiangdong and Jiangbei are planning to go to Germany to poach unemployed Zeiss engineers and technicians in order to develop the optical industry.
As a result, Jiangdong took the conventional route, following the official path by sending a delegation to formally recruit engineers and technicians from the industry association.
If we switch to Jiangbei Province, it's a completely different story.
Vice Mayor Huang personally led a team and directly found intermediaries in Germany, poaching more than 30 people to Jiangbei in one go.
etc.
It's 1994 now, and China hasn't been open to the world for very long. How did Vice Mayor Huang and his team manage to thrive in Germany?
Why go through an agency? Aren't you afraid of getting scammed?
How do they know that the agency is reliable?
Haha, because the intermediary was found for Vice Mayor Huang by Feng Zhonglin.
What kind of agency did we find? It was the agency that introduced state-owned enterprise employees from Beijing to work as fruit pickers in Germany.
The pickers on German farms come from all over the world, including many unemployed skilled workers and engineers from East Germany.
The intermediaries and farmers were familiar with each other, so they only asked a few questions before identifying their target group. They then took Vice Mayor Huang over and talked to each of them individually.
It just so happens that East Germany was a socialist country before, and after China's reform and opening up, some of the earliest students sent abroad were sent to East Germany.
There's a certain sentimentality involved, but more importantly, compared to being a harvester, the positions of engineer and technician are clearly more in line with their self-defined life values.
And so, while the Jiangdong delegation was still going in circles, Vice Mayor Huang had already taken them directly back to Jiangbei.
It's easy to imagine how upset Secretary Fang was upon receiving the news.
So what should Wang Xiao do? Of course, she should pretend she doesn't know anything about it and fly directly to Shanghai to see his concert.
What can you do about this? Good things will always be in demand.
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[I've already finished] the outline, I'll update it as soon as I finish the next chapter, but I don't know the exact time yet. Because I haven't figured out how to write it yet.
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