Undercurrents: A Chronicle of Film and Television Game
The conference room at 2 a.m. was as bright as day, and the cold light from the projector shattered into spots of light on Ah Yu's glasses. Her fingertips traced the jumping box office curve on the screen, suddenly stopping at the peak of the 2019 summer season—the closing data of the last phenomenal fantasy film, "Mirror World": 1.73 billion yuan in box office, with a single-day screening share of 29% in the third week of August.
"Pay attention to this turning point." She circled the precipitous drop on August 15th with a laser pointer. "The release of 'Mirror World' was delayed due to the key extension of 'Avengers: Endgame,' causing its screening rate to plummet by 18% within three days. This shows that during the safe window of opportunity in the latter part of the summer season, it is crucial to precisely avoid the long-tail effect of top-grossing films."
Sitting at the end of the long table, Zhong Hua suddenly slammed his thermos down on the data report, the bottom of the cup wrinkling the competition chart for the Q3 2024 release window. This distribution director with a buzz cut had a habit of unconsciously rubbing the dent on the rim of his cup whenever the pressure increased—it was knocked over in the cinema manager's office during last year's National Day holiday when they were vying for screen time.
"When Marvel's new film *Startides* was scheduled for release on July 26th and pre-sales exceeded 1.2 billion yuan, I asked someone to check their key plan." He pulled out a yellowed schedule of screenings from a folder. "Based on data from *Blade Runner 2099* in 2022, the second-week screening rate for these kinds of visual effects blockbusters is 45%, and it drops to around 22% in the third week. We chose August 23rd, which happened to fall right in their screening vacuum period."
Su Yao's fingers flew across the keyboard, and three audience profiles appeared on the wall: the timeline of the student group showed a beautiful peak in late August, with the average daily free time of 5.8 hours marked in bold red; the weekend movie-watching intention curve of office workers suddenly rose by 63% in the third week of August, like a sharp scalpel cutting through the fog of data.
"Look at this." She pulled up the overtime rate data for the first two weeks of the National Day holiday. The red number 78% was painful to look at. "Last year, 'Office Romance' was released on September 28th, but its opening week box office didn't even reach half of the expected amount. It wasn't that the film was bad; it was that the target audience was all working overtime revising plans."
A rumble of thunder suddenly rolled past the window, and Ah Yu subconsciously looked at the city night view outside the floor-to-ceiling window. The glass curtain walls of the CBD office buildings reflected the neon lights, much like the flashing bar charts of screening rates on her computer. Three years ago, when she first entered this industry, she worked with her mentor on the release schedule planning for "Tales of the Deep Sea," watching helplessly as the film was squeezed out of the Spring Festival comedy films, with its daily screenings falling to less than 3%, and in the end, it could only barely survive in midnight screenings.
"We need to build a dynamic model." She opened a new PowerPoint presentation, where the color blocks in the SWOT analysis chart were clearly defined. "The threat from top competitors is the squeeze on screen time, but their long-tail effect will diminish to a safe range by late August; the opportunity for low- and medium-budget competitors lies in diversifying their screen time, but the competition index in the first week of August is as high as 8.2, which is equivalent to dancing in a minefield."
Zhong Hua suddenly pointed to the risk hedging plan in the lower right corner of the screen: "Isn't this Plan B's screen allocation too optimistic? When 'The Secret Realm' was released ahead of schedule in 2023, cinemas temporarily raised ticket prices by 20% to maintain occupancy rates, resulting in a 35% drop in audience numbers."
"Therefore, we set a ±5% limit on ticket price volatility." Su Yao cited a historical example: "The film *Nightcrawler* used a tiered pricing strategy during non-core release periods, resulting in an 18% higher-than-expected attendance rate in its opening week. We can replicate this model, leveraging student tickets and couple's tickets."
The rain intensified, and Ah Yu's phone vibrated on the table. It was a WeChat message from her mother: "Yao Yao, your father's surgery is scheduled for August 20th. Can you take two days off?" She stared at the date on the screen, her throat suddenly tightening—it was three days before the team's initial release date. Her fingertips hovered over the keyboard for a long time before she finally replied with just a "Mm."
At four in the morning, the three of them stood downstairs at the company building waiting for a ride-hailing car. Su Yao suddenly pointed to the cinema across the street and laughed, "Look, the giant poster for 'Star Tide' is all up." The neon lights shimmered on her glasses, reflecting the cold light of the interstellar warship in the poster. Ah Yu followed her gaze and suddenly noticed the screening schedule in the lower right corner of the poster: July 26 - August 31, key validity period 37 days.
"Wait!" She turned abruptly and ran back, her high heels clicking rapidly on the ground. "Brother Zhong, quickly check the key type for *Star Tide*! If it's a Class A key, they have the right to apply for an extension in late August..."
The conference room at six in the morning was once again flooded with data. Zhong Hua's face was ashen, his pen poking holes through the "Marvel New Film Key Type" table: "Damn it, it really is Category A. They can apply for an extension within 30 days of the release, which means... after August 25th, they can still retain a 15% guaranteed number of screenings."
Su Yao's keyboard clicks suddenly stopped, and the release date simulation system on the screen displayed a red warning: if *Star Tide* is postponed, its screening share on August 23rd will plummet from 22% to 14%, and its expected opening week box office will be halved. Ah Yu stared at the pale sky outside the window, suddenly remembering her mentor's dying words: "Release date planning isn't a math problem, it's a gamble. You never know what cards your opponent is holding."
"Activate Plan B." She heard her own voice, like paper soaked by rain. "Move it forward to August 9th, before 'Star Tide's' first week of screenings decreases."
Zhong Hua suddenly looked up: "That's Monday! The average number of people per session on a weekday..."
"But the competition vacuum period is only three days." Su Yao pulled up the latest screening data, "Of the three similar films in the first week of August, 'Edge of Dreams' was suddenly withdrawn. Now, the competition index for August 9th is only 4.1, the lowest of the entire summer season."
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