Chapter 159 Arsonist: The Well-Established Three-Point Investigation Method
In the early autumn of 2005, Yancheng was shrouded in a thin, cool mist. The leaves of the sycamore trees began to turn yellow, and a few that had fallen prematurely twirled and landed on the cold steps of the Provincial Public Security Department's Crime Prevention and Analysis Center.
Inside the center, however, things were as bustling as ever.
The huge electronic screen was lit up, and the rapid typing on the keyboard, the constant ringing of telephones, and the whispers among the technicians all combined to create a symphony of modern criminal investigation.
Jiang Ling's due date is just a few days away. Her belly is swollen high, and she is inevitably a little slower in her movements. However, she still insists on staying at her post. She only follows the doctor's advice and Liang Jiushan's almost "nagging" advice, reducing her field work and focusing more on remote command, plan review, and training of core personnel.
She sat in a large office chair, with a cup of warm water and a small dish of nuts prepared by Liang Jiushan beside her. Her eyes remained calm and sharp, but the sharpness was now subtly infused with the unique tenderness and perseverance of motherhood due to the new life growing in her womb.
Liang Jiushan became known throughout the center and even the entire provincial department as the "number one anxious person." His office computer and the bezel of his monitor were covered with colorful sticky notes, densely covered with Jiang Ling's prenatal check-up schedule, precautions for each stage of pregnancy, hospital emergency room phone numbers, and even "massage techniques to relieve labor pains" that he had collected himself.
His technical command remained precise and efficient, but every hour, he would get up as if wound up, go to Jiang Ling's office, and ask softly, "Sister Ling, do you need some water? Are you tired? Get up and stretch a bit?" His colleagues privately joked that he was "Director Jiang's personal butler," but he didn't care at all. Instead, there was a hint of pride in his eyes.
“Jiu Shan, I’m just pregnant, not seriously ill and need 24-hour monitoring.” Jiang Ling was sometimes amused and exasperated by Liang Jiu Shan’s excessive anxiety. Her tone was somewhat helpless, but she didn’t really blame him.
“I know, I know,” Liang Jiushan nodded repeatedly, but his hands kept moving as he carefully wrapped all the corners of the table that might touch her abdomen with soft protective strips. “It’s just… I can’t help it. I only feel at ease when I see you here.”
This hopeful calm was abruptly shattered by an urgent investigation notice from Yao City, marked "Urgent".
The contents of the report were chilling.
Within a week, two fires with remarkably similar methods occurred in the old town of Yao City. Both fires started precisely between 1 and 3 a.m., and both originated in old tenement buildings with stairwells filled with flammable debris.
The first fire tragically resulted in the death of a 70-year-old man living alone, who suffocated. While the second fire was discovered earlier and a death was averted, several residents were still hospitalized for smoke inhalation. Even more disturbingly, investigators found a charred old calendar page in a pile of garbage near the site of the second fire, with a date clearly circled in scarlet marker – three days later.
Panic spread like a plague through the old town of Yao City, especially among families with similar living conditions and many elderly people with mobility issues, who were unable to sleep at night and were filled with anxiety.
"Someone set fire to the house, and many people died!"
"We specifically target old residential buildings where the stairwells are full of clutter."
"Some people say that the arsonist provoked the police and will strike again in three days..."
Countless residents called to inquire about the progress of the case, and the television station also reported on it, appealing to citizens to provide clues. The Yao City Public Security Bureau is under tremendous social pressure.
The Yaoshi Municipal Public Security Bureau had no choice but to send a high-level distress signal to the Provincial Department's Crime Prevention Analysis Center, which possesses the strongest big data analysis and crime prediction capabilities in the province, requesting Jiang Ling and his team to provide crucial technical support.
When the case briefing was swiftly delivered to Jiang Ling's desk, she felt a distinct and powerful fetal movement. The little one inside her was kicking restlessly, as if keenly sensing the sudden tension in the surrounding atmosphere. She took a deep breath, gently stroking her swollen belly with her palm, and quickly and meticulously reviewed the briefing's contents. Her brows furrowed tightly, and her professional instincts instantly put her into battle mode.
Jiang Ling pressed the internal communication button, her voice clear and steady: "Notification. The core team will hold an emergency meeting in the first conference room in five minutes regarding the Yao City fire case, connecting with the Yao City Bureau's special task force command center."
Five minutes later, the atmosphere in the meeting room became tense.
The large screen projected horrific photos of the fire scene, close-ups of makeshift ignition devices, and a calendar with charred edges and a red circle marking the forecast. Jiang Ling sat in the main seat, her hands clasped in front of her abdomen, her gaze sharp as she swept over every member present, and also looked through the screen at the anxious faces of her colleagues in Yao City.
"Comrades, the case in Yao City is extremely heinous." Jiang Ling got straight to the point, his voice not loud, but carrying an undeniable force. "Based on the existing evidence, this is by no means a simple act of venting anger or an accident, but a series of meticulously planned arson cases with a strong sense of ritual and performance."
Thinking about her upcoming maternity leave, Jiang Ling decided to give her team members more opportunities to appear in public and conduct independent analysis using the three-dimensional investigation method.
“First, let’s determine the nature of the problem.” Jiang Ling pointed to the photo of the ignition device on the screen. “Liangzi, you do it.”
"Yes!" Li Zhenliang stood up, his expression extremely serious.
"Cigarettes and matchboxes, mosquito coils igniting cotton wadding—these materials are commonplace and easily obtained, but the way they were combined demonstrates the criminal's certain manual dexterity and rudimentary understanding of combustion principles. His choice to commit the crime in the early morning, targeting clutter in old building corridors, indicates his familiarity with the fire safety hazards of such environments, and his intentional avoidance of peak pedestrian activity times to reduce the risk of being discovered on the spot. More importantly—"
He paused, then zoomed in on the calendar image. "This calendar is key to determining the nature of this case. It's not just a provocation, but a ritualistic declaration. The perpetrator enjoys the process of controlling others' fear and announcing the date of the next crime. He places himself in the position of 'law enforcer,' believing he is acting on behalf of God, cleaning away the filth or evil in his eyes."
Several leaders from the Yao City Public Security Bureau who participated in the video conference nodded slightly: "Yes, we also believe that the suspect's actions were not just about retaliation, but more like a provocation against the police."
“Very good.” Jiang Ling nodded. “Next step, define the scope. Dawei, you do it.”
Zhou Wei switched the screen to display a map of the old city of Yao City. "Both cases occurred in the old city in the north of the city. The buildings are similar, the population density is high, and the proportion of migrant workers and elderly people living alone is large. The criminal's psychological safety zone is in this familiar environment. The scope of the investigation can be locked in the old city in the north of the city."
"In addition, the targets he chooses have some commonalities. He may believe that disorder, neighborhood discord, or the occupation of public space are 'unclean things' that need to be cleaned up. Our next step should be to focus our investigation on the relevant complaint records in the old city area in the north of the city in the past six months, especially complaints about clutter in stairwells, neighborhood disputes, or even complaints about specific groups, such as unfilial children and elderly people living alone, and find the intersection among them."
Jiang Ling looked at Liang Jiushan: "Jiushan, this part requires your data model to support it. We need to input and analyze population data, property information, alarm records, and even abnormal water, electricity and gas data to initially outline the criminal's possible activity range and target selection preferences."
Liang Jiushan nodded immediately and said to the Yao City police on the other end of the video call, "Please have your technical officers send me this data."
After some whispering among themselves, one of the police officers in Yao City raised his hand and said, "Okay, Officer Liang, I'll take over for you."
Liang Jiushan's fingers flew across the keyboard: "Okay. Once the data arrives, the crime behavior analysis model can begin running."
"Finally, and most crucially so far, is to create a suspect profile." Jiang Ling's gaze deepened as she delved into the core of criminal profiling. She still didn't personally take charge, but instead looked at Liu Haoran.
"Haoran, based on the above characteristics and behavioral patterns, you will create a preliminary psychological profile of the criminal."
The original four-person psychological profiling team had a clear division of labor. Liu Haoran was responsible for criminal psychology and behavioral analysis. After experiencing numerous cases, large and small, he had become increasingly composed. Upon hearing Jiang Ling's words, he immediately stood up, his voice clear and loud.
"First, gender and age. For men, the age should be between 30 and 45. Men in this age group often face greater social pressure, including economic, family, and career aspects, and are prone to developing paranoid ideas. At the same time, they have a certain physical strength and social experience to implement such plans that require patience and observation."
The Yao City police had long heard of the amazing psychological profiling skills of Jiang Ling's team, and seeing their clear logic and substantial arguments, they couldn't help but nod in approval.
"Second, personality and psychology. He is extremely paranoid and withdrawn, possibly with severe difficulties in social interaction, and harbors enormous resentment and discontent. He may have had traumatic experiences related to fire, such as his own home being destroyed by fire without anyone's help, witnessing a fire tragedy, or harboring extreme hatred towards specific groups, such as what he considers unfilial children, the wealthy and heartless, or neighborhood bullies. He views arson as a means of self-judgment, deriving a distorted sense of accomplishment and control from it. Calendar predictions indicate that he has a strong desire for attention, hopes to attract attention and panic, and enjoys the feeling of being the center of attention."
This case quickly reminded Liu Haoran of Sun Xiaohai's warehouse arson case.
From a criminal psychology perspective, because fire has immense destructive power and can instantly alter the environment, it gives arsonists a sense of control and influence that they cannot experience in their daily lives. Watching the flames rise, they feel a distorted sense of "power" and "release," which is the only way for them to prove their "existence" or even "importance."
Sun Xiaohai committed arson because he sought a distorted sense of power and existence after being bullied and ignored for a long time.
Liu Haoran quickly organized his thoughts and formed them into clear sentences.
"Third, social characteristics. The suspect lives or has lived in the old city and is extremely familiar with it. He may have a stable job but a low social status, or he may be unemployed or working part-time, giving him enough free time to observe and prepare. He has decent manual skills, but he is not a high-IQ criminal. The devices he uses are simple and readily available, reflecting his limited resources and low risk awareness."
"Fourth, behavioral risks. His behavior is escalating. From the first success to the second announcement, his confidence is gradually growing. In his next action, he might seek greater dramatic effect, such as choosing a more central location, creating a larger fire, or observing his achievements more closely. We must stop him before he strikes again!"
Liu Haoran's analysis was logically sound and interconnected, not only outlining the criminal's profile but also predicting his possible behavioral trends. A low murmur of admiration came from the Yao City task force, who then offered their own thoughts.
"Not bad, not bad."
“Based on this portrait, we immediately worked with the police station to conduct a screening of permanent residents in the old city area in the north of the city.”
"The old city area has a large population, making the investigation difficult. There are only two and a half days left until the suspect's announced time. We're worried we won't have enough time. Director Jiang, do you have any ideas on how to improve the efficiency of the investigation?"
Liang Jiushan spoke up at the opportune moment: "Based on past data, the model has preliminarily identified seven high-risk areas in the old city area of the north." On the large screen, seven dots began to flash.
Jiang Ling slowly stood up, supporting her back, and walked to the large screen. Her gaze, like a scanner, meticulously examined the maps, building diagrams, and population density data overlaid on them. The baby in her womb seemed to sense her mother's focus and moved slightly.
Jiang Ling focused intently, her fingertip finally pointing decisively at one of the areas: "Focus on investigating Area D! This area has the highest concentration of old buildings, the largest proportion of migrant workers and elderly people living alone, and more importantly, the complaint records from the past six months show that Area D has a significantly higher number of complaints about cluttered hallways and heated arguments between neighbors than other areas!"
The focus was quickly narrowed down to three of the most representative buildings in District D. The Yao City police were greatly encouraged and immediately deployed a crack team, with plainclothes officers infiltrating the area to conduct 24-hour covert searches and surveillance. At the same time, they were working diligently to develop a detailed emergency evacuation plan, just in case.
Everyone prayed that the date circled in red was just a bluff by the criminals, or that they could be caught before the operation could begin.
However, things often take unexpected turns, and they always seem to stir up trouble at crucial moments.
Late the night after Jiang Ling made her crucial judgment, she suddenly went into labor.
Continue read on readnovelmtl.com