Chapter 15 The Center Hypothesis: Most perpetrators commit crimes around their residences.
After waiting for a while and seeing that no one was speaking, Jiang Ling began to give hints.
"From a psychological perspective, the perpetrator needs to be familiar with the scene but is also afraid of being discovered by acquaintances, so he will choose a relatively convenient place to commit the crime."
Jiang Ling's words were not difficult to understand, and Li Zhenliang and the others all nodded.
"I understand what you mean. You mean, a rabbit doesn't eat the grass near its burrow, and thieves generally don't commit crimes near their homes."
"Thieves dare not go to places that are too far away, since they are not familiar with them and are afraid of getting into trouble."
"Not too far, not too close, this..."
Jiang Ling prompted again: "In this way, a psychological boundary will be formed with his residence as the center and the farthest distance that can be reached as the radius."
Upon hearing this, Liu Haoran immediately stood up, picked up a pencil from the table, and drew a circle on the map. Except for one crime scene that was too far away to be included, the other 11 crime scenes could be framed within this circle: "This circle represents the psychological boundaries of the perpetrator?"
Jiang Ling nodded approvingly, took out a set square to measure the diameter of the circle, glanced at the scale in the lower right corner of the map, and said after mental calculation, "Yes, the diameter of this mental map is about 500 meters. In my experience, the diameter of the center of the crime scene in a series of cases is generally between 500 and 1000 meters."
Indeed, the power of the masses is boundless.
The circle Liu Haoran drew represents the "circle center hypothesis" proposed by psychological experts in Country M: most criminals commit crimes around their residences, forming a "psychological safety boundary".
The crime scene not included in the circle is marked with a "7", which indicates that it is the 7th crime scene.
Zhou Wei pointed to the isolated crime scene: "Why wasn't this within the psychological boundaries?"
Li Zhenliang and Liu Haoran exchanged a glance, and an idea popped into their minds. They both reached out at the same time to pick up the police report with the serial number 7.
Liu Haoran stood in front of the blackboard, a distance from Jiang Ling's desk. Li Zhenliang was one step ahead of him, picked up the police report, and took out several photos of physical evidence: "Look, the scratches on the handlebars here are deeper and heavier, unlike the other 11 cases. They must have been caused by different tools."
Liu Haoran found photos of handlebars from other cases and compared them side by side.
Zhou Wei's eyes widened, and he slapped his thigh: "It really is! The scratches in this case are different from the others."
Jiang Ling hummed in agreement. "We can pick out this case. The physical evidence and traces are different, so the perpetrators should not be the same person."
Liu Haoran quickly set aside the 7th case and investigated the remaining 11 cases together.
Li Zhenliang sighed: "If Officer Ying were here, the technical team would definitely be able to determine what the weapon was based on the scratches."
Zhou Wei shook his head: "Our case is too small, it's not worth bothering the technical team. They're too busy to help us, are they?"
Zhou Wei's words successfully deflated Li Zhenliang's spirits. He was right; how could they possibly afford to hire all the experts from the technical team for such a small case?
Jiang Ling, however, thought the suggestion was excellent.
She excels at criminal profiling but is helpless when it comes to physical evidence. If a physical evidence expert could join these 11 cases, it would definitely be of great help in solving them.
Thinking of this, Jiang Ling did not hesitate at all and directly picked up the red phone on Wei Changfeng's desk.
Whether you can get them to agree or not, why don't you just ask?
The call connected, and Ying Songmao's deep voice came from the other end: "Hello."
Jiang Ling chose to be direct: "There is a series of cases where bicycle bells have been stolen 11 times. We would like to ask you to help us look at the photos of the physical evidence."
There was a moment of silence on Ying Songmao's end.
Zhou Wei was a little nervous, his fists clenched tightly, holding his breath and listening intently. Could the technical team really help with such a minor case as a stolen bicycle bell?
"Okay, send the photos by fax, I'll take a look first."
Upon hearing that Ying Songmao had actually agreed, Zhou Wei suddenly raised his clenched fist and made a striking motion in the air. This was fantastic! With the support of the technical team, there was hope of solving the case.
"Okay, thank you." Jiang Ling gave him a look, and Liu Haoran immediately gave her an "OK" sign, then took the coded photo and headed towards the director's office.
Ying Songmao replied very politely, "You're welcome."
The other end of the line didn't hang up immediately, so Jiang Ling added, "Although this series of cases isn't considered a major case, because there are as many as 11, our station is discussing how to use spatiotemporal analysis to pinpoint the perpetrators' life trajectories..."
Before she could finish speaking, Ying Songmao quickly interrupted her: "I'm coming right away."
After saying that, the phone was disconnected.
Jiang Ling held the still-ringing phone, feeling quite pleased.
In her previous life, she had never met Ying Songmao face to face, but judging from his appraisal report and signature, she deduced that he was a person focused on his career and pure of heart.
Such a person would certainly be interested in new methods in the field of criminal investigation.
By catering to their preferences, they were indeed invincible.
Jiang Ling hung up the phone: "Officer Ying said he'll come over and join our discussion."
Li Zhenliang immediately perked up and winked at Zhou Wei: "You said Team Leader Ying wouldn't come? You were wrong, weren't you?"
It wasn't that Zhou Wei was unwilling to invite Ying Dui; he was just afraid he wouldn't be able to get him.
Hearing Li Zhenliang's words, Zhou Wei nodded repeatedly: "Yes, yes, I was wrong. Captain Ying is the most outstanding forensic expert in our city bureau. It's great that he can come."
The two exchanged a smile, then suddenly slapped their foreheads simultaneously: "Oh, hurry up and call Haoran back, no need to fax the photos!"
Li Zhenliang and Zhou Wei ran out of the office together and stood in the corridor shouting at the top of their lungs, "Haoran, come back! Come back!" Their voices were so loud and rough that all the police officers in the office ran out to check the situation.
Even Yao, carrying his large tea mug, came out of his office and said, "What's going on? Why all the fuss?"
No sooner had he finished speaking than Liu Haoran rushed out of the director's office: "What's wrong? Did Team Leader Ying change his mind?"
Zhou Wei's excited voice rang out in the corridor: "Team Leader Ying said he's coming right away!"
Li Zhenliang couldn't hide his pride: "That's right! Haoran, hurry back. No need to send the photos. Ying can come and see them directly."
Upon hearing this, Wei Changfeng ran upstairs from the duty hall: "Captain Ying is coming? What's he coming for?"
After listening to Li Zhenliang's words, Wei Changfeng slapped his thigh: "I knew Jiang Ling was bold. You guys should learn from her. Look, one phone call and the city bureau's technical support is on its way. You guys go and discuss the case. I'll wait for the team downstairs."
Outside the case team's office, it was bustling with activity, but inside, it became quiet.
Jiang Ling began to think about Ying Songmao.
Ying Songmao was a professionally trained criminal investigator. At only 26 years old, he was already the deputy captain of the technical team of the Criminal Investigation Detachment of the Municipal Public Security Bureau. His criminal investigation and identification skills were outstanding. Logically, he should have continued to focus on this work. Why have we not seen his reports or signatures since 2000?
He was transferred to another province?
Or did you change careers?
Or perhaps...
Thinking of the last possibility, Jiang Ling felt a chill and quickly pulled herself back to reality.
When Liu Haoran returned, everyone continued to discuss the case.
Jiang Ling said, "Not too far, not too close, and not repeated—these are the three principles of the perpetrator's mindset. If we follow this line of thinking, can we find out the perpetrator's possible residence?"
"Our jurisdiction is so big, how should we determine the place of residence?" Liu Haoran, who had just rushed back from the director's office, was still a little confused.
Zhou Wei stared at the map for a long time, then said with some uncertainty, "If thieves wouldn't steal from people's doorsteps, then the area where the crime occurred can be ruled out."
Jiang Ling nodded firmly: "Yes, continue."
Encouraged, Zhou Wei continued to observe the map, trying to enlarge the red circles around each crime scene. When 11 enlarged circles filled the screen, everyone's mouths dropped open.
Like clusters of red flowers in full bloom, densely packed and blooming in the jurisdiction of Jinwu Road Police Station.
Only a small space remained in the center of the flower.
Zhou Wei was as excited as if he had discovered a new continent. Pointing to the empty space, he exclaimed, "Look! This empty space perfectly matches the three no's principle you mentioned."
Everyone stared at the empty space in the center of the red flower.
Li Zhenliang stood up excitedly, almost tipping his seat over: "Peony Towel Factory! That's the Peony Towel Factory!"
The other two chimed in, "Yes, yes, that's the towel factory."
Zhou Wei has been working at the police station for a long time. He likes to ride his bicycle around and is very familiar with the area.
He pointed to the empty space and said, “Peony Towels used to be a famous brand in our city. The products were of good quality and cheap, and shopping malls all over the country were scrambling to buy them. However, in recent years, the factory has been overstaffed, the quality control has been inadequate, and the profits have been getting worse and worse. It is said that it will also be restructured. There are about a thousand employees, three main workshops, two boiler rooms, a large warehouse, and supporting facilities such as an administration building, a canteen, and a factory-run kindergarten.”
A thousand people? Although it can't compare to a textile factory, the Peony Towel Factory is still quite large.
Jiang Ling asked, "What about the dormitory area?"
As if he had a map of the area built into his mind, Zhou Wei answered precisely: "Four apartment buildings, where ordinary employees live; one building for cadres, where leaders and engineers live; and a row of old bungalows, where temporary workers and single employees live."
Liu Haoran slapped his thigh: "The towel factory workers committed the crime during their commuting time, which coincides with the time of the crime."
Li Zhenliang stood up and pointed to the crime scene marked "1": "Look, the first crime was near the textile factory, which is the furthest from the towel factory. Why would a towel factory worker go to the textile factory to steal bells? I don't quite understand."
Jiang Ling also found it a bit strange. According to the "comfort principle," perpetrators usually choose a place close to their home for their first crime.
But this perpetrator is different; the location of his first crime was the furthest from the center of the circle. Why?
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Don't rush. Psychological profiling is a process of gradually narrowing down the scope of the investigation.
I originally planned to make it available for purchase tomorrow, but I feel like the case hasn't fully unfolded yet, so I'll postpone it for two days. It will be available for purchase at midnight on Friday, with a 10,000-word update that day.
The author is currently working hard on the writing; discussions at the end of the chapter are welcome, and there will be red envelopes (cash rewards)!
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