Chapter 35 Draft Prediction



A few days later, the Devils arrived in Denver.

Excluding the qualifying matches for the 16th and 17th seeds in each region, the tournament will consist of a total of six rounds from the top 64 to the final champion.

These six rounds of competition will be divided into three stages: top 64 to sweet 16, top 16 to final top 4, and top 4 to the final championship.

What distinguishes these stages is the playing field.

As we progress through the stages, the competition venue will become larger and the attention it will attract will increase.

The initial stage given to the Southern Conference teams is the Denver Pepsi Center, which is also the home court of the Denver Nuggets.

When they arrived at the hotel that day, Xu Yong and Harden entered the room and closed the door, then went to the computer and opened the search engine.

As per past practice, the first draft predictions are almost out at this point in time.

Different from the previous entertainment nature of Sports Illustrated, this time it will be NBADraft, the most famous draft website in the United States.

After opening it, they saw that the predicted list had indeed come out.

This list is somewhat different from the 2008 draft that Xu Yong knows.

First is the No. 1 pick, Michael Beasley from Kansas State University. He averaged 26.2 points and 12.4 rebounds per game during the regular season. His total score broke the record of the Division I league, and his three-point shooting percentage was 39.8%, which was even more explosive than Anthony's back then.

Speaking of which, they played against Kansas State University in the invitational tournament. Although they won that game, Beasley scored 39 points.

The second pick is Rose. Rose's regular season statistics are mediocre, averaging 14.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. In the eyes of Excel fans, these statistics cannot even make him into the lottery. However, in the predictive analysis, Rose's athletic ability is described as "shocking", and he is a "natural leader."

The third pick is Gallinari, an overseas player with excellent athletic ability, accurate three-point shooting, the ability to organize and post up in the low post, an all-around forward.

As for the popular players in the Pac10 league, Brook Lopez is 6th, Love is 7th, Westbrook is 11th, and Bayless is 13th.

Well, the Pac10 league is worthy of being the strongest league in the NCAA, and it is almost dominating the list in such a draft year.

However, these discrepancies made Xu Yong confirm one thing: the championship stage is really important.

He also remembered an example, Donte DiVincenzo, a white guard with mediocre talent, who was considered a draft pick before the tournament. However, he relied on his crazy performance in the tournament, especially his 31 points as a substitute in the final, to force himself to the 17th pick in the first round.

Although such examples are rare, they show that if you perform well on the tournament stage, your draft pick will improve, even significantly.

They continued to look down.

Then soon, Harden's name also appeared.

Harden is predicted to be selected by the Warriors with the 15th pick.

In the draft analysis, Harden's strengths and weaknesses are clearly written.

Advantages: comprehensive offense, excellent passing vision, excellent confrontation, very good at breaking through and making fouls, good game rhythm, showing a desire to win.

Disadvantages: Unstable scoring, with big fluctuations in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, defensive loopholes, short height for a shooting guard, average athletic ability, many turnovers, and little potential for improvement. [Note 5]

To be honest, this was the first time Xu Yong saw Harden's draft prediction in 2008, and it was lower than he expected.

However, the analysis content of professional talent show websites is still very professional.

Especially regarding turnovers, Harden averaged 4 assists per game this season but had nearly 3 turnovers, which is a big downgrade.

Harden's expression was a little complicated at this time, as if he was thinking about something.

Xu Yong continued to move down and saw himself at the 21st pick.

Strengths: Amazing athleticism, excellent body flexibility, toughness in confrontation, excellent performance in off-ball offense, and excellent game temperament.

Disadvantages: He is not tall enough as a power forward and lacks offensive skills as a small forward. He looks more like a high-quality role player.

"Do you have any draft plans?" At this moment, Harden, who had finished thinking, asked Xu Yong.

Xu Yong glanced at Harden and nodded.

As a reborn person, in addition to training in recent years, he naturally also planned for the draft.

Especially in the past year, he further refined his original "four-year college plan."

"Can you tell me about it?" Harden looked a little confused at this time.

Xu Yong nodded. Harden was his friend now, and he had nothing to hide.

"Go as far as possible in the tournament, improve my ranking, and make the lottery." Xu Yong's current plan is simple and clear.

The so-called lottery show refers to the top 14 picks. It is called this because of the existence of the "lottery ping-pong ball" when drawing lots. As long as you have the opportunity to draw, you have a chance to draw the top three picks.

The 14 teams that can participate in this draw are actually non-playoff teams from last season.

Being selected by a non-playoff team means there is a certain chance that you will be trained as the core of the team.

Of course, the closer you are to the front, the greater the chance.

On the contrary, after the lottery, what the playoff teams need more are high-quality role players. This is why Xu Yong, who has excellent dynamic talents, appeared in this draft.

In other words, this is a watershed moment, which is why Xu Yong said this. He wants to be trained as a core player after entering the NBA.

There are multiple reasons for this.

First of all, he has the confidence.

Back then, he was trained by core players in the CBA, and his performance got better and better.

The CBA is played in rounds. In his second season, his averages in the first round were about 15+5+2, which increased to 18+6+3 in the second round, and directly to 26+7+6 in the third round.

Although the intensity of the CBA cannot be compared with that of the NBA, his improvement over the years and the foreseeable improvement in the future show that he has potential in this area and is not blindly confident.

The second is development.

There is a popular saying about the draft, "The lottery is for potential, the middle and late first round is for combat effectiveness, and the second round is for scratch cards."

Although this is not always the case, it is generally true.

If you are not selected in the lottery, you will most likely start as a role player. As a role player, you will be required to do what you are good at on the court, and you must do it well, because the competition between role players is much greater than that between core players.

Many role players may only have one chance to prove themselves in their lifetime, but those who are trained as core players have a greater margin for error.

To give the most recent example, Yi Jianlian and Sun Yue, who were both selected in 2007, are very intuitive.

Moreover, after becoming a role player, you will gradually only be able to do those few things, and your other abilities will gradually disappear.

Because it’s useless to practice, the coach won’t allow you to do those things on the court.

There are not many such examples in the NBA, but most of them are like this, because those who can enter the NBA are the Jordan in their stories before the draft.

As for those who can grow from role players to core players, there are very few.

A lot of the perceptions are just the result of survivor bias.

Finally, it was what he just thought of, opportunity.

Being in the same conference as the University of Memphis is both a bad thing and a good thing. If they can really pull off an upset, they have a good chance of doing so.

Harden thought about it and then nodded.

For him, this is also the best plan at the moment.


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