Chapter 116: Stock speculation is based on expectations
Lu Hui lowered his brows, thought carefully, and said:
"Is there no chance at all?"
"I've been researching this stock for months. From the establishment and development of the two companies to their merger, I know all the major events like the back of my hand. It's like my own child. You name a date, and I can reveal everything it's done."
Lu Hui was somewhat unwilling.
Li Feng looked at his expression and knew that he was trapped in path dependence.
This situation is all too common in the stock market.
After a stock investor makes a profit on a stock, especially a big profit, he or she will often keep thinking about it and devote all his or her enthusiasm to studying and tracking it.
Humans are not plants or trees, so who can be heartless?
Long-term attention and long-term holding have unknowingly led to a special feeling for this stock and formed a path dependence.
This kind of path dependence is very hurtful.
It will narrow the investor's vision to a very small level, trapping him in a place he thinks is safe and comfortable, and stop him from expanding his circle of competence.
It will dull the pain sense of stockholders. When the stock price falls, they are unwilling to believe the changes in the company and unwilling to open their eyes to see the decline of the industry. Sometimes they will even stubbornly go against the trend, shouting the slogan: "Great companies are not afraid of bull and bear markets."
However, the development of real enterprises and industries has always been bumpy, with ups and downs. There is no enterprise that keeps rising, nor is there an industry that keeps falling, and there is no end in sight.
The normal development laws of enterprises, industries and all things are like the growth of all things and the changing of the four seasons. There are spring, summer, autumn and winter. There will be ups and downs, ups and downs, underestimations and climaxes.
As an investor, you must respect common sense, stay away from your comfort zone, always observe the general trend, have a clear understanding of the development of things, follow your heart, and prevent yourself from developing path dependence.
Moreover, Lu Hui’s stock trading is not just a problem of path dependence, but also a problem of wrong methods.
Li Feng thought about it and advised:
"Brother, your stock trading method is not right. Go read the book "The Ultimate Bull Retail Investor" when you have time."
"Also, stock speculation is all about expectations. The CRRC story has already been told, and all the positive news has been factored into the stock price. How can it go up again? Back to over 30? Over 50? Everything goes to extremes and then reverses. It's impossible."
Then, Li Feng pointed at Lu Hui's computer and said:
"Instead of relying on CRRC, you might as well study the housing market. If the housing market is really as you write, it might be a good opportunity."
Housing market?
Lu Hui was stunned and looked back at the manuscript he had written. The title of the manuscript was: "Volume and Price Rise Together, S City's Real Estate Market is Seeing the Dawn."
How is the real estate market related to the stock market again?
Lu Hui was a little confused.
Li Feng pointed at the manuscript and explained:
"If the housing market is really as your investigation shows, then it's very likely that the real estate market is about to take off. Now is a good time to invest in real estate stocks and the real estate industry chain."
Lu Hui suddenly realized something. He looked at the manuscript he had written and said:
"After the purchase restrictions were relaxed last year, the housing market began to thaw somewhat. In the past two months, especially after the stock market crash, real estate transaction volume in City S has rapidly increased, and the land auction market has also heated up rapidly. In many good locations, land prices have exceeded housing prices. The property market has really heated up."
"Li Feng, you know I've been working in the real estate industry for many years. Not only industry experts, but even relevant departments have privately told me that last month's real estate transaction data hit a new high for the year. The real estate recovery is undeniable!"
"If you want to buy a house, buy it soon!"
"Lao Guo and I just bought a house each. Hehe, we went with the inside price, only 20,000 yuan per square meter."
At 20,000 yuan per square meter, even a two-bedroom apartment of 80 square meters would cost 1.6 million yuan, with a down payment of 30%, which is 480,000 yuan.
Li Feng couldn't help but laugh and said, "Lao Guo, Lao Lu, I didn't expect that you are still small wealthy people."
Guo Yunpeng waved his hand and said, "Don't make fun of me. In order to buy this house, I not only took out all the salary I saved over the past few years, but also borrowed hundreds of thousands of yuan from others."
"You can borrow money, but I can't. I can only rely on my parents for support. Alas... All the money my parents have saved for their entire lives has been spent in one go. I feel sad when I think about it!" Lu Hui sighed.
"Alright, alright, you guys are homeowners after all, so stop showing off," Li Feng teased. "Don't you consider the troubles of me, a homeless person?"
Lu Hui raised his head and said, "Li Gushen, you are not short of money now. Buying a house is just a matter of moving your fingers. Help me find some stocks to buy..."
After hearing this, Li Feng focused his mind and read the manuscript that Lu Hui had just written. He was thinking while reading.
City S is a first-tier city.
As the saying goes, "the duck knows first when the river water warms in spring." If the real estate in City S is going to recover, then the real estate market in City B, a small third-tier city, will most likely recover soon.
If that happens, the entire real estate market with a production value of tens of trillions of yuan will be completely activated, and will drive the development of dozens of upstream and downstream industrial chains!
The opportunities contained therein are so great that if you just grasp even a little bit of them, it may be enough to change your entire destiny!
If you don't take what heaven gives you, you will suffer the consequences.
All of a sudden, Li Feng became a little hurried.
Time suddenly feels like it’s not enough.
He must study carefully and strive to be in the best position when this round of wealth-making opportunities comes!
In order to get the maximum return.
"Lu Hui, if you have any real estate-related information, please send it to me so I can research it. Meng Han, please help me check the interim reports of real estate stocks on the stock market."
Li Feng said hurriedly.
"Do you want to invest in real estate stocks?" Lu Hui asked.
"We have this intention, but we need to study it, mainly the industry situation, to see whether it is a real recovery or a false recovery," Li Feng added.
"There are many listed companies in the real estate industry. Which companies' semi-annual reports should I look at?" Lin Menghan turned on the computer and asked.
"First look at the three real estate giants, Poly, Gemdale, and Vanke, and then look at the others," said Li Feng.
Next to him, Guo Yunpeng seemed to have noticed something and helped to look up the information and sent it to Li Feng.
As for the manuscript, there is still one day left, and the most important thing now is to make money.
After a while, Lin Menghan had almost finished analyzing the interim reports of the four companies and concluded:
"Vanke's P/E ratio is only 10, and its sales increased by 9% compared to 2014. Poly Development's P/E ratio is only 7, and its sales reached 76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. Gemdale Group's P/E ratio is also only 10, but its sales reached 21.23 billion yuan, a 25% year-on-year increase. Country Garden's sales decreased by about 6.8% year-on-year, and Sunac's sales increased by only 2.11% year-on-year."
"These are brief data. More detailed data requires further analysis."
"Well, send me all these interim reports and I'll take a good look at them," said Li Feng.
"Yeah." Lin Menghan said as she sent the information to Li Feng.
Next to him, Lu Hui also sent the information he had compiled to Li Feng.
After a while, dozens of documents were saved on Li Feng's computer desktop, which made people's scalp tingle.
There was a gleam in Li Feng's eyes. To others, these materials might be useless information, but to experienced stock investors, they were the best research objects, which contained countless opportunities that were mouth-watering.
He dove right in.
It would take several hours to study, and Lin Menghan would order takeout for dinner, which he would eat in the office.
It was not until nine o'clock in the evening that Li Feng took his eyes off the computer screen and breathed a sigh of relief.
At this time, Lu Hui and Guo Yunpeng had already returned home.
Lin Menghan blinked and waited.
"It is very likely that the real estate market, this huge market, will recover. Tomorrow, let's build an observation warehouse first." Li Feng concluded.
"Why?" Lin Menghan asked.
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