Chapter 156: Picking up cigarette butts, vulture funds
The stock investors rushed forward with a loud roar.
At this time, there is no need to care about etiquette. The communication time is limited, and if you are late, it will be too late.
Lin Menghan also took a small notebook, wrote down a few questions, and went to queue up.
The host saw the situation and hurriedly advised, "Everyone, please don't crowd. Each person will have three questions. Everyone will have a chance. If you want to ask a question, please line up and ask one by one."
Upon hearing the news, the shareholders spontaneously formed three teams, but Yu Youguang's side had the most people, and the line stretched from the conference room to the lobby.
A large area in the conference room suddenly became empty.
Li Feng smiled and felt a little bored, so he took out the printed content of the "Central Economic Work Conference" and read it carefully again.
The more I read, the more difficult it becomes to understand.
In terms of monetary policy, the policy has changed from "adjusting the monetary valve" proposed in 2016 to "controlling the total monetary supply valve."
Does this mean that liquidity is tightening?
"Win the battle to prevent and resolve major risks" and "the focus is on preventing and controlling financial risks". What does this mean?
In terms of financial risks, in addition to the interbank market and bond market, there are also foreign exchange market and stock market.
As the biggest market maker in the stock market, can we understand it this way? Not only do we have to prevent the index from falling sharply, but we also have to prevent it from rising sharply?
After all, risks arise from rising prices.
While he was thinking, a young man suddenly sat down next to Li Feng.
"Brother, do you like watching this too?"
Li Feng turned his head and saw a thin young man with a pale face, a high nose and sunken eyes sitting beside him, staring at the document in his hand.
"That's right. If you want to invest, you have to look at this." Li Feng said with a smile.
"I like to read it, too," the young man said, pulling out a document. After a brief hesitation, he pulled out a business card and handed it over with both hands, saying, "Vulture Fund, a small private equity firm, Liu Jihua."
"Li Feng, um, I'm here to join in the fun." Li Feng said as he glanced at the business card.
The Vulture Fund has achieved a total return of 200% in the five years since its establishment. Fund manager Liu Jihua has seven years of experience in the industry.
This fund manager looks young, but he has a long working experience and his performance seems to be good.
Selling funds?
Then this person has found the wrong person.
"Brother Li, you're too modest," Liu Jihua shook his head. "Most of those who can still sit here and don't seek advice from stock gods have their own trading systems. Once they have their own path, they naturally don't need to follow the paths of others. I believe it's the same for Brother Li."
"Meeting is destiny. I'd like to share my investment experience and my core investment inspiration, which I call the vulture strategy, which comes from the 'cigarette butt picking' strategy of American investment guru Charlie Munger."
"Like smokers picking up cigarette butts, they look for industries, sectors, or individual stocks that were mistakenly killed during a major crisis. They buy them at very cheap prices, wait for the bad news to dissipate, and then sell them. They're like vultures flying in the sky, specifically hunting down dying companies."
“My investment motto is to look for crises, discover them, intervene in them, and turn them into opportunities!”
"That's why I pay so much attention to the various policies announced above, because almost all crises are closely related to policies."
Liu Jihua was very frank and explained his investment system one by one.
In the investment world, sharing one's investment experience and investment system is very common, and it is not something that many new investors would keep to themselves as they imagine.
On the contrary, many people reveal everything in order to find like-minded people, or investors, and also to discuss together to improve their investment level.
After all, the road to investing never ends.
Li Feng extended his hand and shook Liu Jihua's. He said modestly, "My investment direction is mainly macroeconomic. Simply put, I look at the general trend, focus on the industry, and ignore individual stocks."
"That's why I carry this document with me and keep pondering it."
"Oh... I see..." Liu Jihua stretched out a slightly hunched hand, rubbed his nose, and said, "Brother Li, what do you think of the macroeconomic environment next year?"
Li Feng pondered for a while and said slowly:
"I've been thinking about this for the past few days. The macroeconomic environment and our Guojia monetary policy are gradually tightening... so I reduced some of my positions... especially the real estate policy. I can't see clearly, so I sold all the stocks in the real estate industry chain..."
"What do you think?"
Liu Jihua thought for a moment, his eyes gleaming with a sharp light as he said:
"Let me add one more point. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates since 2015, and this is already the third year... According to past experience, the dollar surge caused by the Fed's rate hikes could easily lead to financial crises in other countries... Therefore, I have reduced my holdings to 70%..."
"The vacant position is just in case."
Could it be that Liu Jihua smelled something?
Li Feng's heart moved, and he looked at Liu Jihua, only to see a glint of light in his eyes, like that of an eagle, as if he had seen corrosion.
Li Feng took out his mobile phone, clicked lightly and continuously, and quickly checked the relevant information. He found that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates once in 2015 and 2016, and raised interest rates three times in 2017. The interest rate has reached 1.25%-1.5%.
In the global dollar system, the Federal Reserve is not only the central bank of the United States, but also the central bank of the world. Its contraction and rise and fall will directly affect all aspects of the world.
Historical experience shows that the Federal Reserve's initial, moderate interest rate hikes will not cause much damage to the economy, and may even benefit sectors such as banks and insurance. The most feared thing is the high-interest environment that will be formed after the cumulative interest rate hikes.
The key now is whether the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates, whether a high-interest environment will be formed, and ultimately suffocate the economy.
Ultimately, it all comes down to when this critical point will arrive.
Also, should we consider the transmission of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy to my country and whether we should include this in our own investment system?
Li Feng thought about it and always felt that something very crucial was missing, but he couldn't remember it when he thought about it carefully.
This made him a little anxious, and he couldn't help but want to take out a cigarette to smoke.
Just at this moment, Lin Menghan came back, patted his hand, took his cigarette, and said, "Smoking is not allowed in the meeting room. If you want to smoke, wait until you leave the building."
Li Feng had no choice but to smell it and put it back.
Liu Jihua, who was standing nearby, saw him and said hurriedly, "Hello, sister-in-law. Brother Li, I'm leaving first. If you have anything, we can contact each other on WeChat. The phone number on the business card is my WeChat ID. Oh, if any friends want to buy funds, remember to help me promote it."
"Okay." Li Feng responded.
After hearing this, Lin Menghan turned around, her face flushed, feeling both shy and happy.
Before they knew it, more than an hour had passed, the investors had almost finished their consultation, and the three invited guests had left one by one.
The host came on stage and said:
"We welcome everyone to take the time out of their busy schedules to attend this carnival. Thank you very much! We have arranged a buffet at noon. You can pick up your meal tickets at the door and eat on the third floor."
At this time, it was already past 12 o'clock, and many people were already hungry. Upon hearing this, they turned around, got their meal tickets, and went up to the third floor.
The buffet hall on the third floor is a buffet restaurant mainly serving Western food and pizza as its theme.
Li Feng and Lin Menghan chose a quiet booth, selected seven skewers of bone-in meat, eight grilled chicken wings, a few slices of watermelon, three slices of durian pizza, two cups of Coke, three rolls of sushi, and five grilled fish, and ate with gusto.
"Is it worth coming here today? Do you have any insights?" Li Feng took a sip of Coke and asked Lin Menghan with a smile.
Lin Menghan put down the grilled fish in her hand, pursed her red lips, her eyes gleaming with joy, and sighed:
"What a reward! There's always someone better than you... I never thought someone could study real estate stocks to such an extent... Li Feng, did you know that Cheng Gu Shen can memorize the location and price of every piece of land Sunac has acquired, word for word, and can even calculate how much money they can make from selling it! He knows the company better than their CEO."
"Also, He Wensheng, the stock god, knows every bank's indicator by heart. Some people, skeptical, even randomly ask him questions on the spot, and he answers them word for word. More importantly, Yu Youguang, the stock god, truly achieves the unity of knowledge and action, and indeed, he has received the greatest reward from the market... As investors, we should learn from them..."
Li Feng nodded and said with deep understanding: "That's right. When three people walk together, there must be one who can teach me. I am ashamed of myself for not being as good as you in terms of company research. I have also gained a lot from this trip."
"Well," Lin Menghan pursed her red lips, rolled her eyes, looked at Li Feng, and persuaded him, "I think you should focus more on researching companies and individual stocks. After all, compared to the vague macroeconomics, company fluctuations are not significant, and there are financial statements to track, so researching them gives you a better grasp. I believe that with time, your achievements will definitely be no less than those three stock gods!"
After saying this, Lin Menghan's eyes shone with infinite hope. She knew Li Feng very well. With his abilities, as long as he quietly changed his strategy, he would definitely be no worse than the three people standing on the stage.
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