Chapter 160 You have to walk your own path to go further and more steadily
Li Feng thought a lot, sorted out his thoughts a little, and replied:
"Foreign affairs of this magnitude, especially those involving Sino-US relations, are not something he can decide on his own. It must have been decided after a period of negotiation."
“And once it starts, it won’t end easily.”
"Just like the US-Japan trade war that once took place, the two sides started in 1957, first fighting the textile war, then the steel war, the color TV war, the automobile war, the semiconductor war, the telecommunications war, and the financial war. It lasted until 1989, when it ended with the signing of the Plaza Accord. It lasted for more than 30 years."
"my country and the United States have only been fighting for less than three months, so it's still early. It will definitely take a very tough game to have a result. I think we should pay special attention to it. I have already sold all my stocks."
Liu Jihua sat in the office building in S City, read Li Feng's reply attentively, and replied:
"I also think this matter is not that simple. I have now reduced the fund's position to 65%, and the remaining position is slowly shifting to defensive stocks such as pharmaceuticals and liquor."
"Why not consider clearing the inventory or further reducing the position?" Li Feng suggested.
"Well...ah," Liu Jihua sighed and replied, "The minimum holding standard for public equity funds is 60%, it can't be any lower...and it's not that easy to transfer or liquidate positions..."
Li Feng suddenly realized it, but he had overlooked this major constraint of public funds.
Retail investors have small ships that are easy to turn around. They can buy or sell as they please, and can enter and exit the market in minutes. However, this is not the case with public funds. Not only are the transaction fees high, but there are also various restrictions, such as restrictions on single stock holdings, single industry holdings, and minimum holdings.
Even in the event of a world-class stock market crash, public funds can do nothing but sigh in frustration because their holdings cannot fall below the minimum standard.
However, public funds also have an advantage, that is, there are handling fees for both subscription and redemption, which ensures that there is a bottom line when the fund performance is poor, and there are bonuses when it is good.
It is a good industry that can generate income regardless of drought or flood.
After exchanging a few more pleasantries with Liu Jihua, Li Feng organized his thoughts and shared them on his newly registered account on Snowball.com.
A few minutes later, someone replied.
"When I see someone who starts talking about macroeconomic policies, foreign exchange, or stock market gurus, I always walk away. They're definitely a black mouth..."
"Brother, are you telling fortunes?"
"Selling your shares and running away before the battle even begins? Kill this brat on the battlefield first!"
"I've read it, but you think too much..."
"Brother, just leave these economic issues to economists. As a stock trader, we shouldn't be concerned about these national affairs!"
Zhao Xinyue fed Li Feng a strawberry, pointed at the reply, and said:
"I think this one's been said too much. Sigh... You've been researching stocks every day for the past few months. Your face has turned pale, your body has become thinner, and you talk less. All you do is stare at the computer all day..."
"Before, you only worried about Guo Jia's policies, but now you're worrying about the United States over there. Are you trying to study the policies of every country in the world and become a captain?"
"If you have the energy, huh? You might as well use it on me. Sigh, it's been more than two months, and she still can't get pregnant. I've even accompanied Menghan to prenatal checkups several times."
"No, you have to stay with me tonight."
Having said that, Zhao Xinyue pulled Li Feng to go home after get off work.
Li Feng hurriedly stopped her and said, "Don't worry, I'll call Menghan first and ask her to clear out the Kweichow Moutai so she doesn't forget."
As he said that, Li Feng took out his cell phone and called Lin Menghan.
"Menghan, sell all your Kweichow Moutai holdings," Li Feng said briefly. "The US-China trade war has begun, and capital outflows are accelerating. The stock market will be under pressure. The overall situation isn't looking good, so it's best to wait and see."
Lin Menghan answered the phone, went to the study in her home, and took out a notebook filled with densely written words. These were all the work she had done in the past few days.
"Li Feng, according to my research, after this price increase, Kweichow Moutai's profits in the first quarter will explode, expected to exceed 30%. This will push its price-to-earnings ratio to over 20 next year. Judging from its historical price-to-earnings ratio, Kweichow Moutai at over 20 times is really not expensive, and may even be a bit undervalued."
Lin Menghan said as she flipped through her notebook,
"The Sino-US trade war will affect the stock market, but this is only a short-term factor and difficult to measure. We need to look at the long term when investing. In the long run, the investment logic of Kweichow Moutai has not changed."
"We need to be friends with time and good friends with enterprises when investing. Only in this way can we achieve ultimate victory! Li Feng, am I right?"
"Yes, we should be friends with time, but capital is indeed flowing out now. A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. You should sell it." Li Feng continued to persuade.
Lin Menghan turned another page of her notebook and said:
"Flowers can bloom even in the desert. Investing is a game of probability, and you can't guarantee that Kweichow Moutai will definitely fall in this round of Sino-US trade. But I can say with certainty that Kweichow Moutai will maintain double-digit growth for at least the next three years. Even if it dips temporarily, it will rise again soon!"
“Stock trading is like walking a dog. Sometimes the dog will run ahead, sometimes it will run behind, but as long as there is performance as a rope, it will eventually catch up!”
"Over the past few months, I've had my dad ask a lot of friends, and I've also looked at my family's business situation. It's exactly the same as my research results, so I'm very confident!"
As she spoke, Lin Menghan took a few photos of her research notes and sent them to Li Feng.
Li Feng looked at the research materials and asked himself if he could be so detailed.
This made Li Feng a little hesitant.
Indeed, investment is a probability game, and I cannot guarantee that Kweichow Moutai will fall in the future.
I just analyzed it based on my own trading system. The general trend is not good, and there is a greater probability that the stocks I hold will fall in value in the future, so I asked Lin Menghan to sell the stocks.
However, it is obvious that in Lin Menghan's trading logic, Kweichow Moutai's performance ranks first.
There is indeed a certain possibility that Kweichow Moutai will go against the trend and not fall, and may even rise.
But how to arrange the positions specifically depends on the understanding of each investor.
Overall, Lin Menghan is actually trying to establish his own trading system, and the stock he chose is Kweichow Moutai.
This is a good thing.
You have to walk the road yourself to go further and more steadily.
Li Feng pondered for a moment, then changed the subject and said, "Come and live with me in a few days. We can take care of each other."
"No, I'm fine on my own."
Lin Menghan lowered her head, touched her belly, but shook her head firmly.
"Then, I'll let Xinyue go to accompany you?" Li Feng said again.
"No, I have a one-bedroom apartment here, and it's a bit too crowded."
"Well, I'll come see you in two days."
Li Feng hung up the phone.
Zhao Xinyue added, "Sister Menghan's physical examination results are normal, and her morning sickness isn't particularly severe...don't worry!"
"Come home with me!"
After saying that, he pulled Li Feng and rushed home.
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