Chapter 202 Our future is the sea of stars
"When we analyze anything, we need a starting point. Only by starting from the right starting point can we reach the right conclusion. Otherwise, we will be far off the mark," Li Feng said carefully, taking a sip of tea. "It's just like when we analyze the stock market and use it for stock trading. If your starting point is mechanical value investing, analyzing the dividends, PE, and future cash flows of major companies all day long, you're like trying to find a sword by carving a mark on a boat..."
"Little do people know that whether it's dividends, PE, or future cash flow, as time goes by, these will all change..."
"If your original intention for stock trading is to speculate and be foolish, then simply analyzing images, charts, and various technical indicators is far from enough. Because no matter how advanced your profit model is, you can never be more advanced than a computer program..."
"Therefore, the fundamental basis for our stock trading is to analyze it from a game-theoretic perspective. The essence of the stock market is a complete zero-sum, or even negative-sum, game... Only in this way can we exploit the fluctuations of cycles and human nature to achieve profits that surpass the market..."
"We don't need to defeat the computer, we just need to compete with the people behind the computer..."
Li Feng analyzed them one by one.
Xiao Bo frowned and thought, and gained a lot.
He has also thought a lot about the nature of the stock market.
When he was a novice, he thought the stock market was all about speculation, chasing various hot spots, and the result was rapid losses...
When he became a veteran, he once believed that the stock market was all about value investing, and he held on to some "value stocks" tightly, but the result was a steady loss...
He was the only one who had been trading stocks for many years, more than five years to be exact. Especially after communicating with Li Feng many times, he changed his mindset and used the concept of gambling to trade stocks. He unexpectedly found that he could actually make a profit.
Facts are the best education.
Your own experience and your own account will not deceive you. Indeed, the stock market is a game of cards, even dirtier than the games around us.
Here, not only are there many dealers, but every dealer can cheat. Not only is the commission high, but the commission can be adjusted at will. Not only are there many sickles, but the sickles are also fast and bright.
Lao Chen is a new stock investor, so naturally he doesn’t understand or see clearly what is being said. He feels confused and lost, like he is reading something in a heavenly book.
However, since the stock god started talking about the stock market, and his words seemed very profound, he became very attentive, pricked up his ears and listened.
But after listening for less than two minutes, Li Feng changed the subject and returned to international relations.
"Xiao Bo, you should know that I love history very much and am also very interested in international relations. However, no matter how many history books I read, I am still confused about some issues. I always feel that something key is missing."
Li Feng continued, "For example, why is the West so hostile to us, or even fearful...? Is it because of our economic strength? However, even when Japan became the world's second largest economy, they were never so panicked..."
"But these past two days, after reading these two books, I immediately found the crux of the matter, the origin."
"They are truly afraid. They are afraid that we will restore the glory we have enjoyed for thousands of years. This is something deeply rooted in their genes. They are afraid that the 'Scourge of God' will return..."
"The Sino-US dispute can never go back to the way it was before."
"Our future is the stars and the sea... The rest are ants..."
What Li Feng said was beyond Xiao Bo's understanding. He pondered and considered the connection between international relations and stock trading.
Could it be that after the trade war, the two countries are going to have another war?
In addition to chips, what other industries will be targeted?
Well, I heard that there will be a 301 investigation into China's shipbuilding industry.
Yes, the shipbuilding industries of South Korea and Japan surged yesterday. This shouldn’t be due to bearish speculation, right?
However, China's shipbuilding industry has already accounted for more than 60% of the world's shipbuilding share, and the shipbuilding industry is now in a period of prosperity. How can sanctions be imposed?
He was a little confused.
He was just about to ask Li Feng.
Li Feng continued, "Starting from this basic point, and considering that there are only three truly independent countries in the world today—China, the United States, and Russia—the rest are helpless vassals... then everything becomes clear."
"The current international situation is all about playing open cards. China and Russia, and the US and Europe, have opened up two locations for confrontation: one in Ukraine, and the other in the Middle East... These are both protracted wars. The former has been going on for over two years, and the latter for decades..."
"Confrontation, especially long-term confrontation, is essentially a game of economic strength. Russia is nicknamed the world's gas station. Its main sources of income are the extraction and sale of oil, natural gas, various minerals, and the trafficking of arms..."
"The main source of income for the Middle East is the extraction of oil and natural gas..."
"Currently, our Guo Jia is promoting wind power, photovoltaics... and developing new energy vehicles... This requires oil prices to remain at a reasonable level to stimulate the development of new energy... Therefore, China, Russia, and the Middle East, for their own interests, cannot allow oil prices to plummet. The best option is to maintain a relatively high level..."
"Oil is the mother of inflation. If its price doesn't go down, then inflation will naturally not go down either."
Li Feng talked about international relations and then inflation. The scope of his knowledge was very wide and Xiao Bo had some difficulty understanding it.
Old Chen didn't think too much about it and asked instinctively, "I heard that the US experienced an oil crisis in the 1970s. They were able to resolve it that time, but not this time?"
Li Feng nodded and analyzed: "We must clearly understand that the Middle East issue is not an issue between Palestine and Israel, but an issue between the United States and the Middle East. That country is just a means for the United States to control the Middle East and control oil..."
"The three most critical points in the oil crisis that year were the petrodollar agreement signed between the United States and Saudi Arabia, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and Henry Kissinger's secret visit to China..."
"The ultimate outcome of the three-nation game was that increased production in the Middle East drove oil prices straight back down to zero, causing a major economic collapse in the Soviet Union and leading directly to its disintegration..."
"Right now, the Middle East is plagued by conflict on the one hand, Iran and Saudi Arabia are reconciling on the other, and the Slipper Army is constantly threatening the Red Sea shipping lanes... Egypt is also constantly raising the price of the Suez Canal..."
"I now believe that oil prices are not short-term. Besides cost, their price is also partly, or even more, the result of great power games... After all, the cost of oil in the Middle East is only a little over ten dollars, and those countries are merely vassals in the great power game..."
"So, when we study inflation now, we need to add another variable. In addition to the US-China monetary factors, supply and demand, and the anti-globalization trade war, we must also closely monitor the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia's statements..."
"In fact, it is the result of the game between China, the United States and Russia in the Middle East."
What Li Feng said was a bit mysterious.
Xiao Bo was a little skeptical when he heard this. He felt that these things were all from mainland China and there were a lot of them on the Internet. They were the kind of things that you could believe in and not believe in, and they were the kind of things that friends often talked about when they were chatting.
This time, Li Feng should also be setting up a dragon gate formation, right?
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