Chapter 210 One Night, Back to 11 Years Ago
Thursday, March 21, 2024.
Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3079.69 points, up 0.55%, and the trading volume of the two markets once again exceeded one trillion yuan.
Theme stocks were very active, AI concept stocks exploded again, flying car and media concept stocks, and many stocks were capped at the daily limit, and even for several consecutive days.
In the end, the two markets saw more gains than losses, with a total of 3,600 stocks closing in the green, and the money-making effect began to spread.
Last night’s news was also particularly eye-catching.
The Fed unexpectedly turned dovish. The dot plot indicated that the Fed would maintain its three rate cuts this year. Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the pace of balance sheet reduction would be slowed down.
Stimulated by this news, U.S. stocks surged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.03% to close at 39,512 points, the S&P 500 rising 0.89% to close at 5,224.62 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rising 1.25% to close at 16,369.41 points.
The three major indexes hit record highs at the same time!
Gold rose by 0.88%!
It directly broke through $2,200 and reached a high of $2,222.65!
I have to say that the Federal Reserve's expectation management is so sophisticated that it leaves you baffled.
When you think it is going to dove, it turns hawk; when you think it is going to turn hawk, it turns dove.
But whether it turns hawkish or dovish, its ultimate goal is to maintain the rise of the stock market and keep it rising.
The stock market, this is where their fundamental interests lie.
Therefore, there is a saying that Chinese real estate and US stocks are the two major bubbles in the world.
Today, China Real Estate has exploded and entered the final stage, but the US stock market is still high and crazy about hyping AI. Beneath the boiling sound, there are risks that are as precarious as the Internet bubble in 2001.
Because no matter what it is, development has its own laws. It is impossible for it to keep falling or keep rising. The most common-sense trend is that there will be rises and falls. It is impossible to keep a unilateral trend.
Just as trees cannot grow to the sky, elephants cannot hide behind trees forever.
From this perspective, A-shares and US stocks are like two extremes.
There is another piece of news, that is, the top leaders held a "Symposium on Promoting the Rise of the Central Region in the New Era". The last time such a meeting was held was five years ago. The trend of orderly transfer of my country's industrial chain to the central and western regions is also constantly consolidating.
Another eye-catching news was that Pufa Bank released its performance report, which caused an uproar.
The performance report shows that Pufa Bank's net profit in 2023 decreased by 28.28% year-on-year!
The company's revenue in 2023 will be only 173.434 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.05%, and its profit will be only 36.702 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.28%! Net profit per share is only 1.07 yuan!
Data shows that Pufa Bank's net profit in 2013 was 40.9 billion yuan, with net profit per share of 2.19 yuan.
It can be said that overnight, Pufa Bank returned to the situation 11 years ago.
11 years younger.
Banking is a highly leveraged industry.
If you want to invest in this kind of industry, you must invest in companies with high asset quality and low bad debt rates. Otherwise, once the bad debt cycle comes, you will be back to the pre-liberation era overnight.
Furthermore, when investing, be sure not to invest during a period of declining interest rates, as this trend will increase the bank's bad debt risk and shrink the interest rate spread, leading to a sharp drop in profits.
The best time to invest is when interest rate hikes begin to appear. At this time, the economy is gradually prospering, interest rate spreads are gradually increasing, and bad debts are gradually decreasing, leading to a gradual increase in profits.
To determine whether the current path is one of rate hikes or cuts, simply look at the central bank's monetary policy meetings and top officials' statements. You can also look at the 10-year government bond yield forecast from Investing.com or the government bond index.
In short, there are a lot of signals.
This conversion process can last for several months. As long as retail investors are willing, it is easy to capture these signals and adjust their investment strategies.
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Fellow stockholders, use your hands to make money and send a free gift of love.
Your support is my motivation to update.
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