Chapter 212 Pig Cycle
Friday, March 22, 2024
"Listen to the teacher in class..."
"Um."
Li Feng waved his hand, sent the child to school, and then drove straight to the People's Hospital.
Today, Zhao Xinyue’s company gave her a benefit - she can give her lover a free physical examination.
So, Li Feng didn't eat breakfast and came to that familiar place on an empty stomach.
The tall ginkgo trees, the towering high-rise buildings, and the corridors filled with a faint smell of disinfectant gradually evoked his memories.
Twelve years ago, it was here that he met and fell in love with Zhao Xinyue.
"What are you daydreaming about? Hurry up and line up to have your blood drawn first, then do an ultrasound, an electrocardiogram, a chest X-ray, a brain CT scan..." Zhao Xinyue came over and handed over a list while speaking. The list had rows of items that needed to be checked printed on it.
"Well, when will the inspection be completed?" Li Feng looked around and there seemed to be quite a few people.
This is the newly opened physical examination area of the People's Hospital, and there is an endless stream of people coming here to visit.
"If it's quick, it'll only take a little over an hour... After the blood test and the ultrasound, you can have something to eat before doing other procedures. Um, that's the dining area over there. Bring your medical form and you can have a free breakfast..."
"good."
After finishing the physical examination and having breakfast, I returned to the studio in Jingu Building. It was already 9 o'clock.
Just as the water was boiling, Xiao Bo pushed the door and walked in.
"Hey, Xiao Bo, are you free today?" Li Feng greeted.
"What could possibly happen..." Xiao Bo laughed. "Business is tough these days. Besides going fishing with you, I'm either trading stocks with you..."
"By the way, what do you think about the pork sector? A friend of mine thinks the pig cycle is coming and wants to buy this sector."
"I have a friend?" Li Feng said happily.
"You're making a friend out of nothing... Are you thinking of buying into the pork sector? The pork sector has seen a good rise in recent days, but I still don't recommend it to you, my friend."
Li Feng emphasized the four words "this friend".
Xiao Bo scratched his head a little embarrassedly, found a seat and sat at the tea table.
Indeed, he recently received a little bit of capital, and seeing that the prices of kerosene and nonferrous metal stocks had risen a bit too high, he was hesitant to take action, so he wanted to explore other potential opportunities.
By chance, I came across the investment opportunity of the pig cycle in a forum.
So, today I came here specifically to ask Li Feng for his opinion.
Unexpectedly, Li Feng gave him a direct blow to the head.
"Why not buy this sector?" Xiao Bo was a little unwilling to give up. After all, he had studied for four or five hours last night and knew the causes of the pig cycle and the performance of each stock in the pork sector very well.
At this time, the water boiled.
Li Feng first heated the teacup, brewed the tea, and continued:
"It usually takes about ten months for a pig to be slaughtered from birth, so compared to the chicken and fish cycles, the pig cycle is relatively long, usually 4-5 years."
"The last pig cycle lasted from the second half of 2018 to the end of 2020. During this period, pork prices skyrocketed to over 40 yuan per kilogram. There are three reasons for this. First, environmental protection bans directly reduced the supply of free-range pig farmers in rural areas. Second, the sudden outbreak of African swine fever led to the death of a large number of pigs. Third, the industry was at a low point, with sows and pigs sold at historical lows."
"The combination of these three factors caused a severe decline in pork supply, which gave rise to the last pork super cycle."
After a pause, Li Feng continued, "A sharp rise will inevitably lead to a sharp fall. A super cycle is equivalent to a super trough. I think this pig cycle will last longer than five years..."
"The most important reason is that during the last pork cycle, the surge in pork prices had a significant impact on the CPI and people's lives. This has led to the government being particularly sensitive to pork prices and using many tools to stabilize prices..."
"This includes, but is not limited to, moderately relaxing the ban on pig farming in rural areas, encouraging pig farming companies to expand their operations, liberalizing investment and financing for pork-related companies, and so on."
"In addition, there is another very important reason, which is the relative certainty of investment."
"Even during the last super pig cycle, the growth of pork companies, calculated from the lowest point, was only 10 times at best, and only two or three times at worst. Compared to the 20 to 30 times growth during the period of high inflation, the risk-to-earnings ratio is much lower."
"Now, the breeding standards of major pork companies have improved significantly, and they are now able to effectively prevent the spread of African swine fever. As long as pork prices rise, the number of pigs raised will inevitably increase. Although several companies are now insolvent and have suffered heavy losses, many influential people are still discussing it, and many companies are still hopeful. The entire industry has not yet given up hope, so a reversal of the cycle will be difficult."
"I think the pig cycle is not a good business right now."
"Pork stocks have indeed been rising in the past few days, but even after a few days of growth, they haven't risen as much as the CSI 300. It's just a catch-up rally..."
Li Feng expressed his opinion.
In the A-share market, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery represent four major pitfalls that are difficult to measure. Investing in these sectors offers investors few opportunities to make money and a high chance of losing money. There was the case of the scallops from Zhangzidao Island, which were lost in mystery, and the pigs from Chuying Farming and Animal Husbandry starved to death due to lack of money to buy feed.
These are all mysterious events.
The Pig Cycle is just a small cycle among many cycles, and the amount of funds it can accommodate is very small. It is very difficult for retail investors to accurately buy at the bottom and sell at the top.
At this time, the tea is ready.
Xiao Bo picked up the teacup and poured tea while saying, "I'll buy a little less and have some fun."
Li Feng smiled but said nothing.
It seems that Xiao Bo has studied this pig cycle for a long time and is full of confidence.
This should also be his first time using the concept of cycles in investment.
I hope he can find his own way and realize his own truth.
After talking about this topic, the stock market opened.
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index broke its norm and opened at 3070.55 points, then plummeted all the way down, frightening investors. In just half an hour, it plummeted to 3044.14 points!
During the trading session, except for the coal sector which remained relatively strong, the non-ferrous metals sector, real estate, financial insurance, liquor and other sectors all fell.
If the market keeps going for a long time, it will fall!
The market is going to adjust downward!
This idea has appeared in the minds of many investors.
Xiao Bo was about to say something.
Suddenly, a call came to Li Feng's cell phone.
"Li Feng, hey, take a look at your physical examination results. I just went to the laboratory and took a look. Not only are your blood lipids high, but your blood sugar is also a bit high... Oh, you've gained 50 pounds since getting married. You need to lose weight..."
Zhao Xinyue's voice came from the phone, revealing a hint of worry.
"Uh, okay, okay, I'll start exercising in a few days..."
"Don't just do it to get by. You must take it seriously. High blood lipids that are not controlled can lead to heart disease, and high blood sugar that is not controlled can lead to diabetes. Oh, I don't know the results of your other tests. Don't stay in the house every day to trade stocks. Go out more and exercise. The body is the capital of revolution. Without the body, everything is gone..." Zhao Xinyue spoke in a crackling manner.
"Okay, um, right..."
Li Feng hung up the phone.
Indeed, over the years, especially since getting married, because of his professional stock trading, Li Feng sat in the studio all day long, sometimes not saying a few words a day, and unknowingly his health went downhill.
When people reach middle age, the three things they fear most are health, work, and family.
Health is 0. Without health, everything else is illusory.
"Li Feng, look! It's broken through 3040 points and is now at 3039... Ouch... I thought it would go straight up to 3100 points, but I didn't expect it to fall to 3000 points."
Li Feng glanced at the market and said:
"Xiao Bo, I remember hearing you say there are several VIP rooms at BD Securities in the Development Zone. I'm planning to walk there to trade stocks in the future. Could you please ask for me if there's any room left?"
"Well... okay..." Xiao Bo took his eyes off the phone and dialed the number.
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