Chapter 222 Predicting Your Prediction
Monday, April 1, 2024.
Early in the morning, Li Feng walked to the VIP room, turned on the computer, and started browsing financial information while drinking tea.
Now is the time when annual reports are being disclosed intensively, and there are so many kinds of melons to eat.
The first thing we are going to talk about today is public funds.
According to statistics, public funds lost 434.774 billion yuan in 2023.
If we add the 1.45 trillion yuan loss in 2022, the public funds lost nearly 1.9 trillion yuan in two years!
In the past two years, investors have suffered huge losses, while fund companies and fund managers have made huge profits.
The second piece of news today is the coal sector, the star sector of the past few months.
Shanmei International issued an announcement that its net profit fell by 38.53%, the cash dividend ratio was only 30%, and the dividend yield dropped to more than 3 points, which immediately crushed the hearts of countless interest-earning people.
Affected by this, Shanmei International plummeted by more than 8 points at the opening, and was once locked at the lower limit...
Affected by this, the coal sector performed poorly and weakened, completely losing the high-spirited and unstoppable momentum of a few months ago.
my country's resource endowment is rich in coal and little in oil. Since the supply-side reform in 2016, the coal industry has begun to improve, especially after the ban on Australian coal, domestic coal companies are getting better and better.
However, in 2021, the domestic coal supply was insufficient, resulting in a nationwide "power outage", which led to a large increase in production in the coal industry and a sharp rise in coal prices. With these two major favorable factors, the coal trend will be very strong in 2022 and 2023.
However, with the lifting of the ban on Australian coal in 2023, supply began to increase, and coupled with the pressure of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, coal prices have been falling.
Coal prices are not optimistic for the foreseeable future.
Many companies are facing the dilemma of falling volume and price.
Although hyperinflation will return in the future as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it is difficult to say how well the coal sector will perform under such strong supply pressure at home and abroad, having already doubled or tripled in price.
The third piece of news is that the manufacturing PMI in March released by the National Bureau of Statistics has rebounded strongly to 50.8, returning to the expansion range. The non-manufacturing PMI has accelerated its expansion, rising for four consecutive months to 53.0%.
As well, the international gold price continues to soar, breaking through $2,250, and it seems that the sky is the limit.
Nowadays, with the turbulent international situation and the expectation of US dollar depreciation, gold has become the choice of many countries. Many governments have been continuously increasing their gold reserves, which has also led to a continuous rise in international gold prices.
At the opening today, the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly higher with the support of several positive factors, and then soared directly.
In the nonferrous metals sector, Jiaozuo Wanfang and Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. rose by more than 5%, followed by Shandong Gold, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., Zijin Mining Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd.
The liquor sector also rebounded violently, with Shede Wine rising by more than 5%, followed by Luzhou Laojiao, Jiugui Liquor, and Wuliangye...
The ChiNext Index exploded across the board, rising by more than 2%, with theme stocks flourishing. More than ten stocks in low-altitude economy, nuclear pollution control, intelligent driving, Internet of Vehicles, and quantum technology hit their daily limit.
At noon, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3072 points, up 1.02%.
At this time, the non-ferrous metals sector, which had risen sharply in the previous period, began to pull back. After China Aluminum Corporation hit a new high of 7.50 yuan, it fell 1.89% against the trend. Liquor, insurance and theme stocks performed well.
The coal sector fell overall, with Shanxi Coal International plunging 9.97% to close at 15.45 yuan, just one cent away from the limit down.
Many retail investors who copied homework in the early stage were trapped in the coal sector and complained bitterly. They began to complain, but they were ridiculed again.
"If you want to copy homework, why don't you do it earlier? What were you doing in 2022? What were you doing in 2021? What were you doing in 2019? You're trying to save yourself the trouble without thinking, and when you lose money you blame others."
"You've only made a small adjustment, and you're already complaining? If you don't have the mental fortitude, don't embarrass yourself in the stock market!"
"The Internet is like a world of its own; in a big forest, there are all kinds of birds..."
"If I lose money, it's someone else's fault. If I make money, it's because I copied my homework well..."
Looking back to 2022, or even just a few months ago, the coal sector was so prosperous, with both volume and price rising, and stock prices hitting new highs.
In just two years, under the general environment of increased domestic production, foreign imports, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and monetary tightening, the coal sector has begun to face the risk of falling both volume and price.
The situation is changing at an alarming speed.
The speed of the stock market game is unexpected.
Prediction.
Prejudge your prejudgement.
Predict your predictions first.
This kind of game similar to that in the coal sector keeps happening in the stock market, and it will never stop as long as you don't leave the market.
This time you made the right prediction and made money, but what about next time?
It seems like I'm in a cycle forever, with no end.
A year or two before that, the skyrocketing price of container shipping fueled a tenfold increase in COSCO Shipping Holdings’ stock price…
And then, the container ships were launched one after another...
In addition, the freight rates plummeted due to the US interest rate hike...
In addition, there is a story about lithium mines. The price was once as high as 500,000 yuan per ton, which directly gave rise to a huge amount of production capacity.
So much so that the futures price has now reached around 100,000 yuan per ton...
It also led to a sharp drop in the performance of listed lithium mining companies.
This situation seems to happen again every once in a while.
High prices are a double-edged sword.
On the one hand, it can give rise to high prosperity in the industry, huge explosion of profits, and soaring stock prices.
On the other hand, it will also give rise to countless profit-seekers and arbitrageurs.
Excessively high prices can not only make previously uneconomical and inefficient business methods economical, but also make previously efficient business methods even more efficient.
Therefore, when we invest, when we encounter a surge in performance and stock prices, we should not be complacent, but should be more vigilant.
Because, at this moment you are at the top of the mountain. If you take one more step forward, you will reach the cliff from which there is no return.
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Fellow stockholders, use your hands to make money and send a free gift of love.
Your support is my motivation to update.
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