Chapter 237: Middle East Conflict Intensifies, London Aluminum Short Squeeze
Monday, April 15, 2024.
Last weekend, both internationally and domestically, there was a lot of activity, with many events worthy of attention.
So, Li Feng came to the main room early today, made a pot of tea, started eating melon seeds and watching the show.
The first thing: Iran and Israel exchanged fire.
This is a very interesting thing, worth savoring over and over again.
Before the incident happened, the United States repeatedly warned Iran not to attack Israel, and also notified Israel to defend itself; after Israel received the news, it treated it as a major enemy and began to evacuate the people from the 12th.
On the 14th, Iran launched an attack on Israel and warned Israel: "Any reckless behavior will be met with a strong response from Iran."
Interestingly,
As a supporter of Israel, the United States told Israel, "You win," and did not support Israel's retaliation against Iran; Israel has not yet made any decision to retaliate, but has only accused Iran in the UN Security Council.
This is a bit funny.
Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in an attempt to drag the United States into it, but it did not expect that the United States had no such interest and directly refused.
This illustrates two problems.
First, the United States’ influence in the Middle East has declined sharply.
Second, there is a possibility that Israel will be abandoned by the United States, or in other words, there is a possibility that it will be forced to abandon it.
In fact, from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan to Russia's participation in the Syrian civil war and even sending mercenaries to North Africa, as well as my country's promotion of reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the US influence in the Middle East has been much less than before.
This incident can only be said to have completely removed this fig leaf.
The whole world realizes that things have changed in the Middle East and the underlying logic of the entire world has changed.
The second thing: Britain and the United States announced sanctions on Russian metals, and LME copper, aluminum, and nickel soared, especially LME aluminum, which once soared by more than 10%, and a short squeeze occurred again.
The fact that domestic inflation in the United States has not been able to be suppressed is directly related to the fact that the United States has blocked important global raw material markets (Russia) and the world's largest industrial country (China) from its own supply chain.
As a result, instead of re-coupling, he continued to decouple and started his outrageous operations again.
Continue sanctions on Russian industrial metals.
In the future, not only will Russia's oil need to be washed on the high seas, but Russia's industrial metals will also have to be washed, which is bound to further increase the cost of global industrial metals.
The third thing: Maldives announced that it wants to use RMB for import settlement and will also connect to Alipay and WeChat.
Brothers, the US dollar is too expensive now. Use RMB. It is not only cheaper, but you can also use it to buy various consumer goods directly. As long as you use it, you will be addicted.
As for the Federal Reserve, if you have the ability, don't cut interest rates. Keep the interest rate above 5% and see whether your domestic economy can hold up and whether other countries choose the inexpensive RMB or the expensive US dollar.
Currency is essentially just a medium of exchange, a "hair" attached to physical trade.
The reason why the US dollar is the world's dollar is that the United States was once the world's largest producer of physical goods and the world's largest military power.
But now, it is no longer the world's largest producer, and the status of the US dollar is only supported by the military, or in other words, to a certain extent, the current US dollar is parasitic on the physical assets of the RMB.
Because every international trade corresponds to a corresponding flow of US dollars.
Now, my country is the world's largest trading country. If the US dollar continues to be so expensive, the international trade settlement currency will most likely gradually abandon the "expensive" US dollar.
Therefore, the international currency status of the US dollar is in jeopardy.
This is why gold is now, despite the upward trend of the US dollar index, setting a new high in recent days. (In order to cope with uncertainty, central banks around the world buy gold.)
Before we knew it, A-shares opened.
Today is the first trading day after the release of the "Nine National Policies", which is particularly eye-catching.
Sure enough, the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly lower at 3013 points, fell slightly, and then rose straight up, soaring by more than 1%...
The non-ferrous metals sector plummeted during trading, suggesting a potential decline in exposure to the light. (Last week, non-ferrous metal futures and stock prices surged.)
Among them, Northern Copper hit the daily limit, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Oriental Zirconium, and Huayu Mining fell by more than 8%... China Gold, Shandong Gold, and Yintai Gold all fell by more than 5%...
Many investors who bought at high prices last week cried out in despair, swearing that the A-share market was cruel and heartless.
On the contrary, sectors such as shipping, shipbuilding, oil, coal, liquor, and banking have been strengthening.
China Shipbuilding, China Heavy Industry, and COSCO Shipping Special Equipment surged by more than 4%, hitting recent highs...
Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC also rose all the way...
It can be said that except for the non-ferrous metals sector, other sectors generally rose.
Seeing this situation, Li Feng breathed a sigh of relief.
The adjustment of the non-ferrous metals sector has finally arrived.
Veteran stock investors all know that only by continuously rising can the market continue to rise. A market that blindly rushes forward will not last long. Only by rising and falling, falling and rising, can a long bull market be achieved.
Therefore, after seeing the adjustment of the non-ferrous metals sector, Li Feng felt both relieved and a little worried.
It’s like a young man and woman in love. They are afraid that he won’t come, but also afraid that he will do something wrong.
Now, the big inflation cycle sector is in full swing. Some stocks have indeed risen too high and need to be adjusted, while some sectors are still at low levels. It is a good time for sector rotation and capital relay.
Old Chen looked at today's market and felt a little panicked. He regretted, "Oh my! The non-ferrous metals sector has plummeted. Looking at the K-line trend, Luoyang Molybdenum is clearly reaching its peak. How did I become a loser again?"
"Oh my, the China Heavy Industry Group I'm selling has been trending upwards all day long, and how come it's hit a recent high without me noticing?"
"It's bad, it's bad, I can't be the one who takes over, I have to change my shares!"
"A good horse never turns back. I won't buy nonferrous metal stocks anymore. I'll buy Vanke A," he thought. "It's already fallen so much, it can't fall any further, right? Besides, Vanke's executives clarified those negative rumors last night..."
"Besides, the 'Nine National Policies' have been released...it's definitely good for real estate stocks..."
He was obsessed with something and somehow sold out his Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. and bought Vanke A.
However, not long after he bought it, he suddenly found that Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. had turned red.
"This-this is impossible!" Old Chen widened his eyes, unable to believe it.
(Lao Chen’s role is to be the negative example of a retail investor chasing high prices and selling at a loss. Fellow investors should just treat this as a joke and never imitate him.)
Before I knew it, it was three o'clock in the afternoon.
A-shares seemed to have played a huge joke on Lao Chen. The Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. that he sold actually rose in the late trading session and closed in the green, up 2.23%, closing at a new high of 9.16 yuan, while the Vanke A that he bought opened high and closed low, barely closing in the green.
All in all, I lost four points in one day.
"This, this... is that all you need?" Old Chen slapped his thigh in anger until it turned red.
A stockholder named "Li Yunbiao who likes fir wood" asked: What do you think of CRRC's large-scale infrastructure concept in Africa?
The market has indeed been hyping up the concept of going overseas recently, but we must distinguish between big concepts and small concepts when operating. Compared with the big inflation cycle, going overseas is a small concept.
So, we are now going to have a big inflation cycle.
Secondly, if we have completed the big inflation cycle in one or two years, we need to consider what cycle to enter next. At this time, we can consider the concept of going overseas.
However, when screening investment targets, you need to pay attention to two points.
First: The company’s overseas revenue must account for a high proportion.
Second: For the company's overseas revenue, considering the political risks and competitive landscape, it is best to choose one with business scope in Asia, Africa and other regions.
Of course, if there is a company that can combine the concepts of hyperinflation and going overseas, that would be a great opportunity.
——————
Fellow stockholders, use your hands to make money and send a free gift of love.
Your support is my motivation to update.
Continue read on readnovelmtl.com
