Chapter 240: The Attack and Defense Are Different
Wednesday, April 17, 2024.
First: Yesterday, a set of very important news was released.
The National Bureau of Statistics released the GDP data for the first quarter, showing that China's GDP in the first quarter reached 29,629.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and a month-on-month increase of 1.6%.
Some people might say, "Who doesn't know this? This news is everywhere."
But have you ever thought about the background in which this was achieved?
This was achieved against the backdrop of a 9.5% year-on-year decline in overall development investment in the real estate industry and a 27.6% year-on-year decline in new housing sales.
This shows that the real estate industry's huge ability to drive the economy is a thing of the past.
In other words, the overall momentum of my country's economy is shifting from being driven by real estate to being driven by other advantageous industries.
It can also be said that the domestic real estate crisis has come to a smooth landing.
Therefore, those who complain all day long and keep nagging about loosening monetary policy to save the real estate market can shut up and just honestly "build first and then destroy".
People are just so mean.
It is impossible to find a new way unless you are pushed to a dead end.
If the real estate industry is failing, can’t you switch to something else?
If land finance doesn’t work, can’t we switch to manufacturing?
If you had been smarter and quicker, you would have picked the peaches and eaten them long ago. Don’t you believe it? If you don’t believe it, just open your eyes and see what’s going on in Hefei.
While other provinces, cities and districts were investing heavily in real estate to make quick money, they first invested in BOE and then in Changxin Storage, and are now starting to invest heavily in the new energy vehicle industry chain.
Now, NIO, BYD, Volkswagen, JAC, Changan and others have gone there. Just these few operations have created three industrial clusters worth at least hundreds of billions of yuan, and their lives are so comfortable.
Finally, I would like to add that this achievement was achieved against the backdrop of CPI remaining the same growth as in 2023. It is real growth without any exaggeration. In the terms of economists, it is a "golden age."
Compared with the US economy across the ocean: high inflation, high CPI, it simply couldn't be better.
The offensive and defensive situations between the Chinese and American economies are different.
This is also why Yellen was particularly sour when she came this time, saying that we have "overcapacity."
"Overcapacity" is bullshit. The real "overcapacity" is in the automobile, electronics, chip and other industries in Europe, the United States, South Korea and Japan. They are all backward production capacities and all should reduce production.
Second: Dongwu Securities was filed a case by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and employees of Guotou Securities were involved in "insider trading".
What you say will come true.
Now, another securities company is under investigation.
What's the saying? When there's a cockroach in the house, there are more lurking in the shadows.
Yesterday, the Central Inspection Team entered the China Securities Regulatory Commission and announced a special duty phone number.
In the future, please welcome the next one.
Third: The exchange rates between Japan and South Korea continue to fall, and the finance ministers of both countries feel "deeply worried."
What are you worrying about? If big brother wants your life, you have to give it to him even if you don’t want to.
After all the twists and turns, Toshiba finally became an American company, didn’t it?
Samsung, don't be happy. Big Brother has also taken a fancy to you now. Hasn't he been asking you to transfer the chip industry to Big Brother?
You two, just accept your fate.
To put it bluntly, you two are just the chickens and ducks raised by big brother. When big brother is living a good life, you also have food to eat and live like human beings. But if big brother has no food to eat, he will eat you.
Of course, I also know that you feel wronged and want to break free from the chains in Big Brother's hands.
Don't worry, this day will come.
It depends on your performance then.
In addition, the China Securities Regulatory Commission clarified the rumors about "dividends" and "delisting" last night.
The A-share market has now become a news market. It performed a high-diving performance yesterday and started to soar into the sky today, making investors extremely excited. All kinds of monsters and demons have also begun to show their fangs and claws in the financial media.
It's really a chaos of demons.
Let’s just sit back and watch them perform.
Q&A with stockholders:
"Chen Xiaotian":
Will the evolution of cars from gasoline-powered vehicles to electric vehicles and then smart cars mirror the evolution of mobile phones to smartphones? That wave of evolution was driven by mobile gaming, so is there a common logic to this shift?
Haven't seen this yet.
In essence, what you caught last time was not mobile games, but the 2015 double innovation bull market.
For now, we should concentrate on doing well in this wave of great inflation cycle. Conservatively estimated, we should be able to do it until next year. Then we can consider three directions: one is the financial cycle, one is the overseas concept, and one is the liquor cycle. The premise is that the stock price of Kweichow Moutai collapses to around 1,000 yuan.
Guess what, will Kweichow Moutai repeat the 2012 "plasticizer" and "alcohol ban" scandals?
Don't disbelieve it.
When this person is unlucky, even drinking cold water will get stuck in his teeth.
Kweichow Moutai is now at the top and seems to be impregnable.
But the younger brother below couldn't stand it any longer and kept shouting: "Drunkard, come down and play, it's more comfortable down there."
"The ancient emperor who loves to eat fried rice in chicken soup":
Hello, author! I've bought several state-owned real estate stocks, such as Huayuan Real Estate and Guangming Real Estate, and have lost around 15 points. My rationale for buying was that they were state-owned enterprises with price-to-book ratios below 1. However, the recent sudden drop has left me bewildered. I sold half of my holdings yesterday and plan to buy back in when the market reaches its pre-Q1 low. Is this strategy viable? Are there any better approaches?
I have said this many times in the past six months, probably no less than ten times.
The real estate industry is a 20-year cycle industry. Now that it is in a downward cycle, don't try to dig for gold in the shit.
Now that you have escaped from the fire, don't think about returning to it.
"Like Kui Zhoulong's dragon jiao":
Dear author, with the skyrocketing prices of oil, energy and metals, chemical products need to be refined from oil, coal and ores. So will the prices in the chemical industry also rise in the future?
The logic is very correct.
During the bull market from 2005 to 2007, the sector that rose in the later period was the chemical sector, but the elasticity of this sector is not as great as that of resources, nonferrous metals, and shipping, so I have not conducted in-depth research on it now.
If you have watermelon, eat it first and put the sesame seeds aside.
"Seven Years ~ Meditation":
I would like to ask the author, the problems in the Middle East are definitely unavoidable. After the three major countries intervene, will A-shares fall sharply, affecting the rise of this strong cyclical stocks?
The big drop you mentioned here, I understand as a systemic crash, that is, an event of the same magnitude as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
This situation is likely to happen.
And if that happens, I will definitely liquidate my position.
In fact, there are two potential biggest black swan risks now.
First, the Federal Reserve continues to refuse to cut interest rates, and may even raise them, detonating its own domestic economy and spreading risks internationally.
Although we have already decoupled from the United States in most aspects of the real economy, the decoupling in finance is not yet sufficient. Once this happens, A-shares will still experience great turbulence.
Second, changes in the three-way game between China, the United States and Russia will lead to a sharp drop in oil prices. Once this happens, the basic logic of the big inflation cycle will collapse, and I will liquidate my positions directly.
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Your support is my motivation to update.
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