Chapter 243: April 20th Week Market Review: Everything I feed you is poison
Saturday, April 20, 2024.
If I were to describe this week's market situation in one sentence, it would be that the stock market is turbulent, with high winds and fierce waves. Investors need to sit tight and hold on to their original intentions in order to go further.
First, the most eye-catching event abroad is the conflict between Iran and Israel, and the game between China, the United States, and Russia behind it. In addition, the EU's monetary policy seems to be adjusted and is preparing to cut interest rates in June.
This directly disrupted commodity prices.
In the past week, London copper rose by more than 4%, London aluminum rose by more than 7%, London tin rose by about 10%, and London nickel rose by more than 8%.
The domestic nonferrous metals sector saw a highly divergent trend. Leading copper miners Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum experienced a bull market, while leading aluminum companies Chalco, Yunnan Aluminum, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Shenhuo, and Zhongfu Industrial all saw significant corrections due to Rusal's volatility. Even Jiaozuo Wanfang, a stock heavily favored by speculators, closed at its lower limit on Friday.
In the shipping and shipbuilding sector, container shipping is under pressure from new ship capacity. Although the container shipping index is surging, COSCO Shipping Holdings' gains are limited. The oil shipping sector is the only sector that is performing well, with China Merchants Energy Shipping hitting an eight-year high, with a year-to-date increase of 50%. China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy are also rising steadily, with impressive year-to-date gains.
In addition, there are the two shipbuilding giants and the chemical sector that rioted on Friday, but due to limited space, I will not mention them one by one.
Overall, the market trend of strong cyclical stocks is still fermenting, the logic remains unchanged, and the future is promising.
Second, the most eye-catching event in the country was the emergence of the "Nine National Policies", which directly led to the collective collapse of the ST sector and the subsequent two-day riot of bank stocks.
Among them, CITIC Bank hit the daily limit for two consecutive days on April 17 and April 18, directly setting a historical high of 8.00 yuan, and driving other bank stocks to rise sharply.
It is very noteworthy that the major state-owned banks, including Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Bank of Communications, have seen significant growth so far this year, following their substantial gains last year. Most of them have seen growth of more than 10%, and several have even set historical highs.
Therefore, I have always believed that it is not appropriate to be bearish at this position, because the dividend yields and PE of the bank heavyweight stocks that serve as the ballast of the stock market are at historical lows.
It can be said that over the past year or so, many people's returns have not outperformed these bank stocks.
At this point, some people might say, "This is the national team rescuing the market. It's nothing big. The economic situation is so bad right now, and banks are saddled with piles of bad debts. It's a bottomless pit. If there's a crash in the future, no one will be able to escape."
Indeed, we are now in a cycle of interest rate cuts, bank stocks are under great pressure, asset quality is not optimistic, almost every bank stock is living beyond its means, and some bank stocks are even experiencing a sharp decline in revenue and profits.
However, we should also see that the first-quarter GDP data just released achieved growth that exceeded expectations. As the economy continues to recover, the banks' bad debt problem will gradually be digested.
If the economy overheats and enters the interest rate hike channel in the next one or two years, then the spring of bank stocks will come.
Finally, let me add one more sentence: every market trend is inseparable from bank stocks, and the protagonists of every market trend are not bank stocks, so we must pay enough attention to the riot of bank stocks last week.
Whether it is a temporary speculative behavior or an organized and purposeful price-raising behavior deserves further attention.
Q&A with stockholders:
1. “Qin Zheng of Jinzhou”: Can Lanzhou Bank be bought as a long-term investment?
As I said, as dedicated as I am, I only have my eyes on strong cyclical stocks now.
Brothers, please stop asking about individual stock trends and trading strategies. I won't answer this, and I can't. We're all adults now, and we're responsible for our own funds. No one else can be held responsible. I'm just recording my thoughts on the overall market and expressing my opinions on certain sectors. Everything else depends on you.
2. "The Ancient Emperor Who Loves Fried Rice in Chicken Soup":
Hello author, recently when I was doing Power for Love, I kept seeing an advertisement for the Six Meridians Divine Sword stock selection indicator. What do you think of this indicator?
I believe that various technical indicators are just tools that can only be used to observe, record and describe the past trends of stocks, and cannot be used to predict future trends of stocks.
If there is any value in it, it is that it can confine the thinking of retail investors to the rut of technical indicators, making them go around in this well all day long, or even all year round. The end result is that on the one hand, they work for securities companies, on the other hand, they work for companies that sell indicators, and on the other hand, they work for the market.
It's like two crickets fighting in a jar. No matter how brave you are, the end result is that you will become a help to others and provide emotional value to humans with your death.
Because, in the stock market, you're weak, you're someone else's food, you have no say, and the things you're fed are like the clumps of grass used to tease crickets—all poison. (Why doesn't he use such a good indicator himself? If it were truly useful, wouldn't he just use AI and turn it into a money-printing machine?)
At this point, some stock traders may say, "Didn't you also talk about strong stocks, leading stocks, and this and that in the first 50 chapters? Aren't those technical indicators?"
To this, I can only explain helplessly and powerlessly that if I criticize technical analysis at the beginning, it would be like stirring up a hornet's nest. Ninety percent of stock friends probably won't continue reading. The reason why I mentioned some technical analysis is to defeat it in subsequent chapters.
3. "Maybe": This is not the reason for starting the bull market. When we just mentioned the financial power, it also caused the collapse of the A-share market.
For one thing, different people have different views and different operations, which leads to long and short positions, and the current index of more than 3,000 points.
If everyone is bullish and buys more, then the current index would be 3500 or even above 4000 points.
It is normal for everyone to be bullish or bearish, and we must respect each other. Only in this way can there be transactions and a stock market.
It's the weekend, and we have plenty of time. Brothers, let's send out free love generators and take advantage of the tomato benefits.
Your support is my motivation to update.
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