Chapter 266: Nothing New in the Stock Market
Wednesday, May 8, 2024.
Last night, breaking news came one after another, which was very thought-provoking.
Naturally, Li Feng came to the big room early, turned on the computer, and began to read the important news carefully.
First, Putin was sworn in as president, and his first stop was my country.
In his swearing-in speech, he said: "I reiterate that dialogue on issues such as security and strategic stability is possible, but not from a position of strength, without arrogance, conceit and exclusivity, but only on equal terms and with respect for each other's interests."
This inevitably reminds us of the arrogance, conceit and arrogance of the United States when China and the United States held the strategic dialogue in Anchorage in 2021.
Many people are worried about WAR III. In fact, it has already begun, but it is unfolding in a different way.
The trade war and technology war that began in 2018, the virus war that began in 2020, and...
The battle lines stretch endlessly, including wars where no smoke can be seen as well as hot wars where smoke can be seen.
It can be said that this game of the century has entered the stage of strategic confrontation, or even strategic counterattack.
In this world, only those with strength can earn the respect of their opponents. This division of world power will have far-reaching consequences. (Some content has been censored again.)
Second, SAIC responded to the EU investigation: it will not provide commercially sensitive information.
Looking more closely at the text, it turns out that the EU asked SAIC to provide commercially sensitive information such as "battery formula".
Sure enough, after falling behind in the competition in the new energy vehicle field, Europe and the United States began to use their ancestral gains again - stealing, cheating, and robbing.
The most shameless.
Today's automotive industry is facing epoch-making changes, as disruptive as the transition of mobile phones from feature phones to smartphones.
In fact, there is more than that.
In this era, new energy vehicles are a dimensionality reduction blow to fuel vehicles, both in terms of driving experience and maintenance and operating costs.
What’s even more frightening is that several companies, led by Huawei, are rapidly evolving new energy vehicles into the era of smart cars.
For old fuel vehicles, this is equivalent to a three-dimensional and four-D attack.
In this automotive revolution sweeping across China and impacting the world, only two major players, China and the United States, have emerged as outstanding companies. This has forced Germany to invest heavily in China, with Volkswagen acquiring stakes in Xiaopeng and Guoxuan High-tech, and BMW increasing its investment in Shenyang.
In contrast, Japan, especially South Korea, is still sticking to the old ways and relying on its old capital. Not to mention the intelligentization of cars, it is likely that they have not even completed the transition to electrification.
It is conceivable that once the automotive industry completes its transformation to full intelligence in the future, it will be the end of the world for Japanese and Korean companies, and it will be a disaster for the Japanese and Korean economies.
Third: Vanke is cutting down its size.
The land that Vanke bought for 3.137 billion yuan in 2017 was listed for transfer at only 2.235 billion yuan.
After reading this information, A-shares opened. Today, the Shanghai Composite Index opened low at 3141.49 points and began to adjust. It closed at 3128 points in the late trading, down -0.62%.
During the trading session, real estate, liquor, banks, securities companies, etc. began to adjust, shipping stocks generally rose, chemical and non-ferrous metal stocks began to diverge, and small metal and chemical leaders performed strongly.
At the same time, coal stocks, which had been adjusted for many days in the early stage, began to rebound strongly against the backdrop of the recent rise in coal prices during the peak season.
Overall, the market is quite tense and the outlook is cautiously optimistic.
Q&A with stockholders:
"Yuezedao who loves eating Chaotian pot": Dear author, I reviewed the market and found that ports, logistics, shipping, highways, and daily necessities with foreign trade business are gradually rising, such as Semir Clothing and Andeli. I don't know how to enter the market for these stocks that have already started to rise. I am afraid to buy them when they rise, but I am also afraid to buy them when they fall!
When we invest, we prioritize caution and conservatism.
Before investing, you must ask yourself a few questions.
For example, why should I buy this stock?
Are you betting that funds will continue to drive its stock price up, or are you betting that its performance will drive its stock price up?
Also, is the evidence you're using scientifically (accidentally or inevitably)? What are your chances of winning? How much room does the stock have to move up or down? Who are your opponents?
Also, if you step on a landmine in the future, can you afford the loss?
Only by clarifying the things hidden behind the K-line can you ensure that you are in a favorable position in the game and achieve a higher winning rate.
"Little Wang Yaya": I just checked my holdings. It would be really comfortable to transfer this from Industrial Bank and earn interest from it!
There is nothing new in the stock market.
As early as ten years ago in 2014, Li Feng became rich overnight by betting on Bank of China convertible bonds with ten times leverage. This has an investment prototype. You can search for "A Tu Ge ten times leverage" to see how this investment tycoon made low-risk arbitrage back then.
Ten years later, in 2014, I was discussing that chapter, so I looked for it...
Found it, Chapter 186 on January 22nd, "2024, take the right path and carry out open conspiracy."
On that day, the Xingye convertible bond was around 102 yuan. If you pay more attention, you will find that the Qilu convertible bond was around 100 yuan on that day.
If you had used your spare money to buy these two convertible bonds at that time, the former could have yielded a return of about 4%, and the Qilu convertible bond could have yielded a return of 12%.
I personally think that more than three months have passed, and there should not be many investors who can exceed this return.
The logic behind this investment is exactly the same as the situation I discussed in Chapter 54, "I Want Ten Times Leverage," which is that banks will not go bankrupt, and if you buy bank convertible bonds with a face value of around 100 yuan, you can get the principal + interest after holding them for at least a few years until maturity, with a guaranteed bottom line.
Generally speaking, due to the practice of not repaying loans in the banking industry, there is an 80% or greater chance of forced redemption, which means that one can obtain an additional call option with a value of about 30% relative to the conversion price. If the bull market expectation is added, an unlimited excess bull market option will also be added.
For related knowledge, you can refer to the two books "Attack and Defense" and "Magic Book of Convertible Bond Investment".
Investing is the monetization of knowledge. As long as we realize it, everything will come naturally. There is nothing new here.
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