Chapter 269 Performance is the bait
Saturday, May 11, 2024.
Last night, a rainstorm brought a cool breeze to City B, and the air was filled with the fragrance of earth.
Today, Li Feng made an appointment with Xiao Bo and Lao Chen as usual and went to the river to fish again.
Today's river water was a little muddy due to the influx of last night's rain, so the three of them changed to a fishing spot with a slower flow and slightly clearer water surface, and began to bait the fish here and there.
"Hey, Xiao Bo, the A-share market is finally bullish," Old Chen said with a smile as he fiddled with the bait. "I never thought that our A-share market would have such a proud day."
"Don't show off too soon," Xiao Bo said, observing his cheerful expression. "Didn't you hear what fellow stockholder 'Chen'e Hydrogen' said? A technical bull market means only those with the skills can enter a bull market, while without them you'll be stuck in a bear market forever."
"The more you expect now, the more disappointed you will be in the future."
"Ah—" Old Chen paused while mixing the bait when he heard Xiao Bo say that. He turned around and looked at Li Feng, asking, "Li Feng, do you think the A-share market is really bullish or just a fake one?"
Li Feng bent down, stretched out his hand to pinch a bait, hung it on the fishing rod, raised his hand and cast it out. Looking at the bait gradually disappearing on the water surface, he sighed:
“The bull market is here, but that doesn’t mean retail investors will make money.”
"Even though the index has reached over 3,100 points and entered a technical bull market, most retail investors are still losing money. A typical example is Lao Hu, who entered the stock market not long ago. He entered the market in June last year with a starting capital of 100,000 yuan and has been increasing his position to 660,000 yuan as of yesterday. Even so, he is still losing 38,800 yuan."
"You know, the stock index was already quite low in June last year. After the two years of sharp declines in 2021 and 2022, many industries have adjusted quite fully. But even so, Lao Hu is still losing money."
"It's conceivable that the account status of retail investors who entered the market a few years ago is even less optimistic, with most likely still experiencing moderate losses. This can be seen from the ridicule of A-shares that can be seen on major stock forums."
At this point, Lao Chen was a little flustered and couldn't help but say:
"So what should I do? Sigh... This market isn't friendly to retail investors, but with the current economic downturn, the only chance retail investors can find to make a fortune might be stock trading..."
"Li Feng, what do you think about the future market?"
Old Chen asked.
Li Feng looked at the ripples on the river, which slowly emerged and disappeared. His expression suddenly became serious, and he said slowly:
"Although the A-share market has entered a technical bull market, and although we have published articles in the past that predict the market outlook to be very optimistic, we still need to remain vigilant, be extremely cautious in investing, and choose investment strategies with a higher chance of success."
"In last week's market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.6%, with the real estate and nonferrous metals sectors showing particularly impressive gains. The real estate ETF rose by 4.55% and the nonferrous metals ETF by 3.93%. There were also gains of 1.31% for the bank ETF and 3.02% for the home appliance ETF."
“Stock speculation is all about speculation on expectations.”
"The surge in the real estate sector is due to expectations for current and future policies for the sector. However, it is important to note that whether these policies can translate into company performance and continue to drive up real estate company stock prices remains a question mark."
"If it can, the real estate sector will naturally continue to rise."
"If not, the real estate sector will be a collective hype."
After a brief pause, Li Feng continued:
"The surge in strong cyclical stocks, led by the non-ferrous metals sector, reflects expectations for future performance. As the second quarter approaches the halfway point, the prices of major non-ferrous metals and shipping prices are basically clear. The focus now is on futures prices in late May and June."
"Given that my country just maintained its loose monetary policy stance at its May meeting, the EU will cut interest rates in June, the UK has just hinted that it may also consider a rate cut, and the US is falsifying data, it should also be preparing to cut interest rates."
"The global easing environment provides the best backdrop for strong cyclical stocks to perform well."
"If there are no unexpected events, the interim reports of strong cyclical stocks will still be very good. Some stocks with excellent supply and demand conditions may even perform better than the first quarter reports."
"So, I still choose strong cyclical stocks with outstanding performance."
"Performance is a shared aesthetic value among humanity, the greatest common denominator for all. Whether investing or speculating, it's irresistible, just like how both men and women are all about appearance – as long as they're handsome and pretty, they'll never have trouble finding a partner. It's like the bait we cast into the river, luring countless crocodiles and fish to come and eat it."
Hearing this, Xiao Bo's expression changed, and he couldn't help but ask:
“What if the strong cyclical sectors don’t perform as expected, or even decline? What if the broader market doesn’t go bullish, or even goes bearish? What if the fish in the river don’t take the bait?”
When Old Chen heard this, he thought about it carefully and realized that this was not impossible. He couldn't help but speculate worriedly.
Only Li Feng leisurely cast out another fishing rod and sighed, "Stock trading itself is a game, a kind of gambling."
"Although we have chosen the plan with the highest chance of success and are prepared for failure, if the final result is not ideal, we must face it calmly and not blame others. Instead, we must quickly identify our own blind spots and correct them."
"Of course, if we make the right judgment and achieve significant gains, we should not become complacent. Instead, we should remain vigilant and beware of the dangers that arise during the upward trend."
It's the weekend, and fellow stockholders, if you have time, please give me a free "Generate Power for Love" gift.
Your support is my motivation to update.
In addition, the old place (over the green bubble) (Tomato’s Fifteen Years) has updated the article: "Weekly Review, 2024, the Bull Market is Coming". If you are interested, you can go and have a look.
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